The women’s singles final is on Saturday in New York, as is the men’s doubles final.
Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula have separated themselves from the WTA field this summer as the tour’s two best hard court players. Pegula won the title in Toronto, while Sabalenka won in Cincinnati. On Saturday afternoon, they collide in a rematch of the Cincinnati final from three weeks ago, with Aryna playing for her third Major, and Jess playing for her first.
Jessica Pegula (6) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (2) – 4:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
Sabalenka has now reached the final at the last four hard court Majors, winning the last two years in Melbourne, but losing a year ago in New York to Pegula’s usual doubles partner Coco Gauff, despite winning the first set 6-2. She’s now 29-6 this season on hard courts, and is currently on an 11-match winning streak, losing only one set during that span. Aryna is 15-14 lifetime in WTA finals, though she’s surprisingly lost six of her last nine, with all six losses coming against either Swiatek, Rybakina, or Gauff.
Pegula was previously 0-6 in Major quarterfinals, and just like her fellow American Taylor Fritz, has now advanced all the way to the final as soon as she broke her quarterfinal losing streak. The 30-year-old has claimed 15 of her last 16 matches, with the only loss coming against Sabalenka in the Cincinnati final. And like Aryna, she’s dropped just one set this fortnight. Jess is 6-7 in WTA finals, though none of them were nearly as big as this one. A year ago, Pegula wrote in the Players’ Tribune regarding her mom’s recent health issues, and how that has impacted Jess and her family.
Their head-to-head stands at 5-2 in Sabalenka’s favor, though they are tied at 2-2 on hard courts. Six of their seven matches have been straight-setters, so winning the first set on Saturday would seem extremely important.
Aryna possesses the most power on the WTA tour, and hits her forehand harder than almost all the ATP players as well. She should be able to control the rallies and dictate the outcome of this championship match, but we’ve also seen her become rather tight and rather negative during big matches. If Pegula can avoid being overwhelmed by this occasion, and apply pressure to Sabalenka’s serve, the American has a real shot at winning her first Major. And we witnessed a year ago in this final just how vociferously the crowd can get behind an American player, and inspire them to victory. However, I still favor Aryna to win her third Major title. Her experience in Major finals should prove to be crucial, and she’s currently playing with so much self-belief.
Other Notable Matches on Saturday:
Max Purcell and Jordan Thompson (7) vs. Kevin Krawietz and Tim Puetz (10) – This is a second consecutive Major final for Purcell and Thompson, who lost a heartbreaker at Wimbledon after holding championship point. All four of these men already hold Major titles in either men’s or mixed doubles except for Thompson.
Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.
