Saturday features second round ATP singles matches, and third round WTA singles matches.
For this first time since 2022, Rafael Nadal will face a top 10 player, as he squares off against Hubert Hurkacz on Saturday afternoon. Scheduled to begin at the same time is the most marquee women’s match of the day, as Daria Kasatkina takes on Naomi Osaka in a rematch from the 2018 Indian Wells championship match.
Other action on Saturday includes top names such as Madrid champions Iga Swiatek and Andrey Rublev, defending Rome champion Daniil Medvedev, and reigning US Open champ Coco Gauff.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s two most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule. Saturday’s play begins at 11:00am local time.
Hubert Hurkacz (7) vs. Rafael Nadal (PR) – Not Before 1:00pm on Center Court
In Madrid, Nadal was able to summon some of his clay court magic, winning three matches at the same tournament for this first time in nearly two years. And that run was highlighted by a straight-set victory over 11th-ranked Alex de Minaur. On Thursday in Rome, he didn’t play his best, but was still able to come from a set down to defeat qualifier Zizou Bergs. However, on Saturday Rafa will face the literal biggest test of his comeback to date.
Hurkacz is 23-10 this season, and won a clay court title last month in Estoril, though it’s worth noting he did not play anyone ranked inside the top 75 at that event. In Monte Carlo and Madrid, he suffered fourth round losses to Casper Ruud and Taylor Fritz, which were far from embarrassing defeats. Hubi’s record in Rome is a meager 2-4 lifetime, and he has lost his last four matches at Foro Italico. In fact, Hurkacz has never won a match in Rome during the month of May, as his two victories came in 2020, when this tournament was played during September, and in front of no fans.
Surprisingly, Nadal and Hurkacz have never before played each other. The big serving and groundstroke game of Hubi will be a lot for a weathered Rafa to subdue, especially considering Nadal’s own weakened serve, and his more limited movement. It’s always a risk to not favor The King of Clay on this surface, but I’m giving the slight edge to Hurkacz on Saturday.
Daria Kasatkina (10) vs. Naomi Osaka – Not Before 1:00pm on Grand Stand Arena
Their Indian Wells final in 2018 was quite surprising at the time. Osaka had never won a WTA title, and had only appeared in one previous final, while Kasatkina only possessed one WTA Title. Six years later, Naomi is a four-time Major champ and mother of one, and Daria is a regular fixture in the top 20, as well as a Major semifinalist.
Osaka is just 11-8 since returning in January from child birth, and clay has never been her preferred surface. But on Thursday, she earned one of the most impressive wins of her comeback, taking out 19th-seeded Marta Kostyuk in straight sets. On Saturday, Noami is vying to win three matches at a clay court event for the first time in over five years.
Kasatkina is 19-10 in 2024, and has been the runner-up at three tournaments this year (Adelaide, Abu Dhabi, Charleston). In the Charleston final, she was thumped by Danielle Collins 6-2, 6-1, and Collins plays a pretty similar brand of tennis to that of Osaka. Daria reached the semifinals in Rome two years ago, the same year she achieved her Major semifinal at Roland Garros. She owns more wins in Rome than any other WTA 1000 event.
So what will win out on Saturday: the power and aggression of Osaka, or the guile and defense of Kasatkina? The Indian Wells championship match from over six years ago remains their only head-to-head matchup. On Saturday, I’m leaning towards the ball-striking abilities of Naomi to prevail.
Other Notable Matches on Saturday:
Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Yulia Putintseva – Swiatek is now 33-4 this season, after saving match points to win the Madrid final against Aryna Sabalenka. Putintseva was a quarterfinalist in Madrid, and held match points of her own in that quarterfinal against Elena Rybakina, before losing 7-5 in the third. Iga is 3-0 against Yulia, and has won all three of their matches in straight sets.
Jack Draper vs. Daniil Medvedev (2) – Medvedev was also a quarterfinalist in Madrid, where he was forced to retire after losing the first set to Jiri Lehecka due to injury. Draper beat Borna Coric in straight sets in the first round, and now faces Medvedev for the first time.
Beatriz Haddad Maia (12) vs. Madison Keys (18) – Haddad Maia was another quarterfinalist in Madrid, while Keys went all the way to the semis, with both losing to Swiatek. Their only prior encounter occurred last year on a hard court, and went to Beatriz in straights.
Coco Gauff (3) vs. Jaqueline Cristian (LL) – Gauff is a modest 4-2 on clay this year, and defeated Magdalena Frech in the last round. Cristian actually received a first round bye after losing in qualifying, as the lucky loser took Barbora Krejcikova’s place in the draw.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (6) vs. Jan-Lennard Struff – After a rough start to the season, Tsitsipas has exceled on clay, winning Monte Carlo and advancing to the final in Barcelona. But so has Struff, who won his first ATP title in Munich, and played an epic match in Madrid against Carlos Alcaraz, losing in a third-set tiebreak. These players have split six meetings at tour-level, though both matches on clay were won by Struff.
Marcos Giron vs. Andrey Rublev (4) – Rublev arrived in Madrid on a four-match losing streak, making his run to his second Masters 1000 title all the more impressive. Three years ago in Rotterdam, he defeated Giron in straight sets, and Marcos arrived in Rome on a four-match losing streak of his own at all levels.
Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.
