Rafael Nadal is only two matches away from a record-breaking 21st Major singles title. On Friday, he faces Italy’s Matteo Berrettini, in a semifinal rematch from this same round at the 2019 US Open. In the other men’s semifinal, Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas renew what started as a testy rivalry in 2018.
Also on Friday, it’s the championship match in mixed doubles at 12:00pm local time. It will be Kristina Mladenovic and Ivan Dodig (5) vs. Jaimee Fourlis and Jason Kubler (WC). Mladenovic is a two-time mixed double champion at Majors, while Dodig is a three-time champ. The Australian wild card team consists of 22-year-old Fourlis and 28-year-old Kubler, who are both vying for their first Slam title.
Rafael Nadal (6) vs. Matteo Berrettini (7) – 2:30pm on Rod Laver Arena
Their aforementioned US Open semifinal is their only previous meeting, which went to Nadal in straight sets. That was Berrettini’s first Major semi, coming off a long five-set battle with Gael Monfils in the last round, just as he is now. Nadal also endured an exhausting five-setter in the quarterfinals, where Rafa was hindered by stomach issues against Denis Shapovalov. Both men are expected to be fully recovered on Friday, as they benefit from having two full days off between the quarters and the semis.
Nadal has often capitulated in the Australian Open quarterfinals, more so than any other Major, with a 7-7 record lifetime. However, it’s a completely different story once he advances beyond the quarters, as he’s 5-1 in semis at this tournament. His only semifinal loss came in his first semi 14 years ago at the hands of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Since then, he’s undefeated in this round, which includes two epic five-setters with Fernando Verdasco and Grigor Dimitrov. And overall in Major semifinals, Rafa is 28-7, though he has lost four of his last eight.
This is the third Major semi for Berrettini, who was the runner-up at Wimbledon last July. Matteo has survived two five-setters this fortnight, and both times he let a two-set lead slip. He has spent over 16 hours on court through five rounds, about two hours more than Nadal. Both players arrived in Melbourne with questions regarding their health, as Rafa underwent foot surgery several months ago, and Matteo withdrew from the ATP Finals due to an oblique injury. However, aside from Nadal’s hesitance to slide on the court, neither have seemed hampered by their recent injuries.
Rafa is fully aware of what a huge opportunity this is to take the lead in most Major singles titles won by a man, with Federer and Djokovic both absent. Will the historical implications impact his play? Also, is Matteo ready to defeat an all-time great on such a big stage? He is 0-7 lifetime against “The Big 3.” And Berrettini’s backhand remains a liability which Nadal can easily expose with his signature top-spin crosscourt forehand. With history within his sights, and his enormous edge in experience, Nadal is the favorite to reach his sixth Australian Open final.
Daniil Medvedev (2) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (4) – 7:30pm on Rod Laver Arena
When they first played on tour at the 2018 Miami Open, harsh words were exchanged after extended toilet breaks, as well as Medvedev’s frustration over Tsitsipas not apologizing for winning a point thanks to the net cord. The chair umpire had to physically intervene after the match. Since that tense meeting, these players have mostly remained civil, yet they are certainly not good friends. Medvedev claimed that first encounter, and won their next four as well. However, Tsitsipas has now taken two of their last three. On hard courts, Medvedev is 5-1. And at hard court Majors, he’s 2-0, which includes a straight-set win in this same round a year ago in Melbourne.
On that day, Stefanos was coming off one of the biggest wins of his career, coming back from two-sets-down to defeat Nadal in the quarterfinals. But on Friday, he should be the much fresher player. The Greek advanced in straight sets on Wednesday after only two hours, while the Russian played five thrilling sets, and almost five hours, saving a match point to come back from two-sets-down to defeat Felix Auger-Aliassime. Despite Stefanos undergoing an elbow procedure in the off-season, he’s looked completely unhampered by it.
This is a huge opportunity for Tsistipas to achieve his first final at a hard court Major, after losing in this round two of the last three years in Melbourne. Even though Medvedev wrote a message on the camera lens to Tsitsipas after his quarterfinal claiming he wasn’t tired, Daniil has to be somewhat depleted after one of the most grueling quarterfinals in recent memory. But based on their history, as well as Medvedev’s hard court prowess, Daniil should still be favored to reach his third consecutive Slam final on this surface.
Friday’s full Order of Play is here.
