Rafael Nadal is only nine sets away from a record-breaking 21st men’s singles title at a Major. On Tuesday, he faces fellow lefty Denis Shapovalov, who upset Sascha Zverev in the round of 16. The other men’s quarterfinal sees Matteo Berrettini take on Gael Monfils, in a rematch of an epic contest from the same round at the 2019 US Open.
On the women’s side, World No.1 Ash Barty has been dominant through four rounds, but will the Australian begin to feel the pressure of vying for her country’s biggest title? In the quarterfinals, she meets American Jessica Pegula. And reigning Roland Garros champion Barbora Krejcikova will play another American, Madison Keys.
Barbora Krejcikova (4) vs. Madison Keys – Not Before 12:30pm on Rod Laver Arena
Krejcikova is into the quarterfinals for the third time in the last four Slams. This is the first Major quarterfinal for Keys since Wimbledon 2019. Both women dropped only four games in their fourth round victories: Krejcikova dominated an injured Victoria Azarenka, while Keys played excellently against Paula Badosa. This will be Barbora and Madison’s first career meeting. It is forecast to be extremely warm when this match begins. Thunderstorms are possible for the rest of the day, but likely not until this match is over, meaning this should remain an outdoor contest. Madison’s power game thrives in fast conditions, and the Floridian is usually unbothered by high temperatures. That could be the perfect recipe to enable the American to achieve her fifth Major semifinal, which would extend her current win streak to 10.
Rafael Nadal (6) vs. Denis Shapovalov (14) – Not Before 2:00pm on Rod Laver Arena
Of course it was in August of 2017 when Shapovalov made a name for himself by upsetting Nadal at the Canada Masters in a final set tiebreak. But since that time, Nadal has owned this rivalry, claiming their last three meetings. Two of those were on clay, which includes a huge comeback from a set and 4-1 down last May in Rome. The other was a Davis Cup match in 2019. Denis played one of the best matches of his career in taking out third-seeded Sascha Zverev on Sunday. But it’s important to remember he had lost 17 consecutive matches against the top five prior to that victory. While Nadal is not currently a member of that club, defeating the King of Clay in best-of-five remains a daunting task. Rafa himself is still publicly minimizing his chances of winning this title, in just his second tournament after foot surgery. But the 20-time Major champion has looked superb, and is yet to lose since returning. While Nadal has lost seven times in the Australian Open quarterfinals, including three out of the last four years, I like his chances of overcoming the aggressive Canadian on Tuesday.
Ash Barty (1) vs. Jessica Pegula (21) – 7:00pm on Rod Laver Arena
Like Nadal, Barty remains undefeated in 2021. And the World No.1 is yet to lose a set this fortnight, dropping her serve only once. This is the second year in a row Pegula has reached this stage of the Australian Open, and she’s also won all eight sets she’s contested. Like Keys, Jessica is an American who resides in Florida, so she is fully accustomed to hot conditions. And she would not be the first American to upset Barty on a warm day in Melbourne in the latter stages of this event, just as eventual champion Sofia Kenin did two years ago. However, this may turn into an indoor match based on the rain in the forecast. And thus far, Barty has remained unphased by the pressure of trying to win her home Slam. Ash’s all-around skills have been smothering the opposition, and I don’t see that changing on this day.
Matteo Berrettini (7) vs. Gael Monfils (17) – Last on Rod Laver Arena
This is a rematch of an epic US Open quarterfinal from 2019, when Berrettini prevailed in a fifth-set tiebreak. They also met at last year’s ATP Cup, where Matteo was also victorious. The Italian has endured a far-more complicated path to this quarterfinal, playing 16 sets and spending over 12 hours on court. Monfils has won all 12 of his sets, and spent less than eight hours on court. The Frenchman has been playing some of the best tennis of his career, coming off a title run in Adelaide to start the year. But Gael has been known to wilt under pressure throughout his career, and is only 2-7 lifetime in this round of a Major. And he’ll surely feel plenty of pressure from Berrettini’s serve, especially if Matteo serves as well as he did on Sunday. Facing Pablo Carreno Busta, he struck 28 aces, served 77% on his first serve, and won 87% of those points. And considering he should feel rather fresh coming off that straight-set victory, Berrettini should be favored to advance to his third Major quarterfinal.
Tuesday’s full Order of Play is here.
