The seeds have held on this half of the men’s singles draw, making for two blockbuster quarterfinals.
Rafael Nadal is just three wins away from his record-breaking 21st Major, but Stefanos Tsitsipas stands in his way today. Tsitsipas has beaten Nadal before, and made a name for himself by upsetting another 20-time Slam champ at this event. The other men’s quarterfinal features the top two Russians in the world, who are playing the best tennis of their careers. On the women’s side, two Americans who are also at their best, and are also close friends, will do battle for a spot in tomorrow’s semifinals. And world No.1 Ash Barty looks to return to the semis of her home Major, against a savvy 24-year-old who like Barty has a lot of options in her arsenal.
Each day during this fortnight, this preview will analyze the day’s most prominent matches, and note the other intriguing matchups on the schedule. Wednesday’s singles quarterfinals will begin at 11:00am local time on Rod Laver Arena.
Ash Barty (1) vs. Karolina Muchova (25)
Neither player has dropped a set this fortnight. Barty has done so despite a hamstring issue, and Muchova has done so despite playing two tight matches against top 20 seeds in which every set went beyond 5-5. Expect to see plenty of variety in the rallies between these two eclectic players. Barty is not a huge server, but she’s so effective at using her serve to set up the point, and to keep herself in control. In three of her four matches, she’s won more than 75% of her first serve points, and more than 50% of second serve points. The only match where she dipped below those levels was the only match where she was pushed to a tiebreak. She’ll need to keep those percentages high against Muchova, who has averaged more than five breaks of serve per match. Barty and Muchova have met once before, which was at the 2018 US Open, with Ash prevailing in straight sets. A significant factor on Wednesday could be the lack of fans, as that may help Barty stay relaxed and feel less pressure without thousands of Aussies in attendance. I like Ash’s chances to reach her second consecutive Australian Open semifinal.
Jennifer Brady (22) vs. Jessica Pegula
These two good friends have entertainingly sent messages back and forth through their camera lens signatures during this tournament. Like the day’s other WTA quarterfinal, they’ve only played once. That occurred last summer at the Western & Southern Open, with Pegula upsetting Brady in straights. While that match will loom in both women’s minds today, it should be noted that match took place shortly after Brady won her first WTA title earlier that month in Lexington, so a letdown on that day was understandable. Jen has not letdown at all during this event, as she’s yet to drop a set and has comfortably dismissed her opposition. The 25-year-old has a great forehand and a lively serve, and has only been broken twice thus far. She’s accomplished that with her first serve percentage below 60% in three of her four matches, which means she’s actually yet to serve her best. Pegula is also a good server, and has worked hard to improve that aspect of her game since hiring David Witt as her coach, who spent many years working with Venus Williams. 26-year-old Pegula has kept her second serve points won above 50% in all her matches, which will be crucial against an aggressive player like Brady. Jess has earned impressive wins over Elina Svitolina and Victoria Azarenka to achieve her first Slam quarterfinal. But Jen has the edge in power, movement, and experience, and should be able to advance to her second straight semifinal at a hard court Major.
Daniil Medvedev (4) vs. Andrey Rublev (7)
This is the quarterfinal many have been anticipating since the draws were released. Like Brady and Pegula, these are two friends who grew up together in the sport. And over the past year, they’ve been two of the sport’s best players. Medvedev is on an 18-matching winning streak, which includes 10 victories over top 10 opposition. Rublev was the ATP’s winningest player last year, accumulating 41 match wins and five titles in an abbreviated season. Medvedev has owned their rivalry to date, with a 4-0 record. And he’s claimed all four of those matches in straight sets. But Andrey continues to up his level, as he’s the one who has not dropped a set this tournament. His serving has been stellar, allowing only three breaks of serve through four matches, while striking 49 aces. Based on how well he’s playing, it would be surprising if Rublev cannot wrestle at least a set or two away from Medvedev, though Daniil remains the favorite considering their history.
Rafael Nadal (2) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (5)
Remember when it was a question as to whether Nadal would even play this event due to a lower back injury? That feels like a distant memory, as Rafa’s form has improved with each round, winning all 12 sets he’s played. But Tsitsipas is Nadal’s most formidable opponent yet, and the 22-year-old is also playing some stellar tennis. Stefanos received a walkover in the last round from an injured Matteo Berrettini. He’ll certainly be fully fresh for this match, though three full days without playing in the middle of a Slam can often disrupt a player’s momentum. Nadal is 6-1 against Tsitsipas, with the Greek’s victory coming in 2019 on clay at the Madrid Masters. Their only meeting at a Major was two years ago in the semifinals of this event, with Nadal dropping only six games against a tired Tsitsipas, who was coming off five consecutive matches that went four or five sets. On this day, Stefanos will walk onto the court with much more energy, and much more experience in big matches. This has been the round of this event where Rafa has frequently stalled. In his career, Nadal is only 6-6 in Australian Open quarterfinals. A Tsitsipas victory feels entirely possible, though Nadal must be favored. Not only because he’s won 15 of the 18 sets they’ve played, but also because he’s Rafael Nadal.
Other Notable Matches on Day 10:
Three of the top four seeds have reached the women’s doubles semifinals. In the first semi, it’s two-time Major champions Barbora Krejcokova and Katerina Siniakova (3) vs. Darija Jurak and Nina Stojanovic, who upset the top seeds Su-Wei Hsieh and Barbora Strycova.
In the other semifinals, it’s 2019 US Open champs Elise Mertens and Aryna Sabalenka (2) vs. Nicole Melichar and Demi Schurrs (4), a newly-formed team this season.
Wednesday’s full order of play is here.
