As the ATP Finals time in London comes to its end on Sunday Dominic Thiem locks horns with Daniil Medvedev with both of them bidding to win their maiden title at the event.
Both players have rightfully earned their spot in the showdown with wins over Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic earlier in the week. US Open champion Thiem boasts a winning head-to-head record of 3-1 against his Russian rival. However, Medvedev has statistically been better than Thiem in nearly every area of the game so far in the tournament except for aces.
With an additional $550,000 in prize money and 500 ranking points at stake for the winner, here are five things to know about the upcoming final.
Medvedev targets tournament history
A win on Sunday would make the world No.4 the first player to have won the season-ending championships by beating the top three ranked players in the world. He has already defeated Djokovic in the group stages and Nadal in the semi-finals on Saturday.
Historically there have only been three occasions where a player has beaten the world’s top three within the same event since the ATP Tour started back in 1990. The most recent was David Nalbandian at the 2007 Madrid Open. Prior to him, Djokovic achieved the same accolade that same year in Montreal. Meanwhile, Boris Becker did so at the 1994 Stockholm Open.
Wins over top three players at the same event
| Player | No.1 | No.2 | No.3 |
| Nalbandian (Madrid, 2007) | Roger Federer | Rafael Nadal | Novak Djokovic |
| Djokovic (Montreal, 2007) | Roger Federer | Rafael Nadal | Andy Roddick |
| Becker (Stockholm, 2004) | Pete Sampras | Goran Ivanisevic | Michael Stich |
Thiem closing in on Rafa
A triumph for Thiem would position him within striking distance of challenging Nadal for the world No.2 position at the start of next year. Should the final go his way, he would be 225 points adrift from Nadal in the ATP rankings.
“Well, I prefer to finish No. 2 than No. 3,” Nadal commented on his tussle with Thiem for the position last week. “I will not follow the ranking, playing more events or playing things that I think goes against my body, against my future to try to achieve a better ranking.’
“I know I have to play well when I have to play well. And if I am playing well there, that’s gonna be my position on the ranking. If it’s second, great. If it’s first, better. If it’s third, it is still a positive year, no?”
To put such an achievement into perspective. Outside of the Big Four, which also includes Andy Murray, no other player has managed to crack the world’s top two since Lleyton Hewitt did so on July 25th 2005. However, there have been no fewer than 18 different players occupying the No.3 spot since then.
Medvedev looks to follow in Djokovic’s footsteps
This year’s run in London is a sharp contrast to that of 12 months ago for Medvedev. On his tournament debut the Russian lost all of his round-robin matches and could only win a single set. In contrast, he enters the final with four consecutive wins and has only been broken four times so far in the tournament.
“Last year was not the way I wanted. But it’s also an experience, even if it was not a good one. But it’s an experience and that’s the key,” Medvedev explains.
Only once before has a player made a winless debut at the ATP Finals before going on to win the title a year later. That was Novak Djokovic in 2007 and 2008.
Thiem out to achieve another milestone for Austria
After finishing runner-up in 2019, Thiem has another shot of becoming the first Austrian player to win the trophy. He is already the first from his country to have progressed beyond the round-robin stage. Austria’s only other representative in the tournament was Thomas Muster who featured in four different editions during the 1990s. Although in one of those he entered as an alternate.
Thiem is already the first Austrian player – male or female – to have won the US Open. An accolade that helped him seal the sportsman of the year title in his country last month.
How does Thiem compare with Muster at ATP Finals?
| Thiem | Muster | |
| Number of appearances | 5 | 4 |
| Matches won | 9 | 2 |
| Matches loss | 9 | 8 |
| Best result | 2019, 2020 finals* | Group stages 1990, 1995-1997 |
Medvedev aims to continue recent surge of success against the top 10
Prior to November, Medvedev went 11 months without defeating a single top 10 player on the Tour. However, he has dramatically managed to turn his fortunes around which started at the Paris Masters when he lifted the title. Within three weeks he has managed a win-loss of 9-0 with six of his victories being over somebody in the top 10. Almost half of what he has achieved in his entire career (15).
Medvedev’s super November
Nov 4th – def Kevin Anderson (86) via retirement
Nov.5th – def Alex de Minaur Nov (25)
Nov. 6th – def Diego Schwartzman (9)
Nov 7th – def Mile Raonic (17)
Nov 8th – def Alexander Zverev (7)
Nov.16 – def Zverev (7)
Nov.18th – def Djokovic (1)
Nov 20th – def Schwartzman (9)
Nov 21st – def Rafael Nadal (2)
*top 10 wins in bold
