Despite many upsets this week, three of the top four seeds are into the singles semifinals.
Top-seeded Rafael Nadal is two wins away from securing one of only two Masters 1,000 titles he’s never claimed. Today he faces a three-time Masters 1,000 champion in fourth-seeded Sascha Zverev. In the other semifinal, two-time Masters champion Daniil Medvedev takes on a four-time Masters runner-up in Milos Raonic, who is still seeking his first title at this level. And today’s doubles semifinals feature three of the top eight seeds, along with two of the ATP’s best young singles stars.
Rafael Nadal (1) vs. Sascha Zverev (4)
Nadal leads their head-to-head 5-1, though Zverev’s win was their most recent meeting. Their first encounter occurred nearly five years ago at Indian Wells, when a then-18-year-old Zverev held a match point, but missed an easy volley and went on to lose 7-5 in the third. A year later at the Australian Open, Nadal came back from two-sets-to-one down to prevail over Sascha. Their next three matches were on clay, which unsurprisingly all went to Rafa. But last year at the ATP Finals, Zverev earned his first victory over Nadal in straightforward fashion. That indoor hard court win will surely be at the forefront of Sascha’s mind today. Zverev has remain focused this week despite the off-court allegations made against him. Yesterday the German impressively took out Stan Wawrinka in straight sets, getting 74% of first serves in, and winning 80% of those points. Nadal needed three sets to overcome Pablo Carreno Busta, an opponent he had dominated in the past. Through three matches this week, Zverev has avoided the double fault yips that have often plagued him, striking a total of 35 aces compared to just five doubles. If Zverev continues to serve so well, he will be hard for Nadal to overcome on this surface.
Daniil Medvedev (3) vs. Milos Raonic (10)
Medvedev has taken both of their previous clashes, which were both contested on hard courts. And the Russian will certainly be the fresher player today. Daniil required just an hour to dismiss Diego Schwartzman yesterday, while Milos played for over twice as long, and needed to save two match points to survive a grueling third set tiebreak against Ugo Humbert. Raonic is looking to reach his second consecutive final at a hard court Masters event. But between the Western & Southern Open final and the start of this week, the Canadian was a meager 5-3. While Medvedev also struggled after leaving New York, his form has improved throughout this week. And Daniil has already defeated two seeded players, while Milos is yet to face one. All available evidence points to a Medvedev victory today.
Other Notable Matches on Saturday:
In the first doubles semifinal, it’s last week’s Vienna champions Lukasz Kubot and Marcelo Melo (4) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime and Hubert Hurkacz, who yesterday upset the top seeds Robert Farah and Horacio Zeballos.
And in the last match of the evening, it’s US Open champions Mate Pavic and Bruno Soares (2) vs. Jurgen Melzer and Edouard Roger-Vasselin (8), who were the champions in St. Petersburg last month.
Full order of play is here.
