Rafael Nadal vies for a record-tying 20th Major title, while Novak Djokovic looks to win his 18th.
The implications of this match are massive. A Nadal win would tie him with Roger Federer for most men’s Major singles titles. A Djokovic win would make the three-way race for the most Slams tighter than ever before.
In 2005, Rafael Nadal won his first Major title in his debut at this event. 15 years later, he is an unprecedented 99-2 at Roland Garros, and a 12-time champion. The only two men he has ever lost to at the French Open are Robin Soderling and his opponent today. Nadal and his team have spoken of the pandemic emotionally impacted Rafa, causing him to decline defending his title at last month’s US Open. There was much speculation that Nadal was not as strong a favorite in this unique edition of Roland Garros. He arrived with only three matches played in six months, and on the heels of a loss in Rome to Diego Schwartzman. Then Rafa himself talked about his displeasure with the tournament’s change to a slower-playing Wilson ball. And the cooler conditions in the October staging of this event are not to Nadal’s liking. But none of that has deterred the King of Clay thus far. As Simon Cambers highlighted, this is the sixth time he has reached the final here without dropping a set. Rafa is 25-0 in semifinals and finals at Roland Garros. With a loss today, this would become only the third year since 2005 that Nadal failed to win a Major. With a victory today, he’ll win his record-extending 100th match and 13th title at the French Open.
In 2005, Novak Djokovic made his Major debut. But unlike Nadal, he did not win his first Slam until 2008. And then Djokovic went another three years until capturing his second. And Novak did not win this event until 2016, in his twelfth attempt. That was the year after he finally defeated Rafa at this event in his seventh try. This is Novak’s first trip back to the championship match of Roland Garros since he won four years ago. But Djokovic has dominated in 2020, with a record 37-1. The only blemish to his record was the infamous default at the US Open, when he errantly hit a lines judge with a ball. That’s one of many controversies Novak has been a part of this year. They also include an exhibition tour utterly lacking of social distancing, which lead to many people, including himself and his wife, coming down with COVID-19. And the forming of a new players’ association (PTPA), with its suspect timing and lack of female representation, drew much criticism. But Djokovic has excelled on the court despite those off-court distractions. He’s on an 11-match winning streak, going back to his title run in Rome last month. However, his last two matches were concerning. Novak was in obvious neck and arm pain in the quarterfinals. And despite holding a match point in the third set of his semifinal, he failed to close it out, spending an additional two sets (and two hours) on court less than 48 hours ago. With a win today, he’ll become to only man in the Open Era to win each Grand Slam event twice.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Rafael Nadal (2) – 3:00pm local time
This is the match the tennis world has been anticipating since this fortnight began. It’s a showdown between two of the most prolific champions of all-time. And it’s the most prolific rivalry of this generation. Djokvoic leads their head-to-head 29-26. At Majors, Nadal leads 9-6, and they’re tied 4-4 in Major finals. On clay, Rafa leads 17-7. In some startling symmetry, Nadal claimed 14 of their first 18 meetings, but Djokovic has now taken 14 of their most recent 18. This is their first match at Roland Garros in five years, after meeting here seven out of ten years between 2006 and 2015.
Djokovic is attempting to do what no man has done before: defeat Nadal in the last two rounds of the French Open. But if Djokovic is ever going to defeat Nadal in a French Open final, this may be his best chance. Rafa’s ball will not bounce as high or as far in these heavy conditions, with Sunday forecast to be rather cool. And Nadal is lacking the amount of pre-event match play he usually requires to be at his best. However, Djokovic’s hiccup in Friday’s semifinal may have been revealing. Novak knew how important it was to put that match away quickly, so he’d be fully fresh for today. But with the intimidating task of playing Rafa on his mind, he blinked. Novak should still be relatively close to 100% physically, yet I wonder what that did to his psyche.
Beating Rafa on clay in a best-of-five match remains the sport’s toughest task. Novak has done it before, and in their most recent such meeting, yet only once out of seven times. And never in the last two rounds of Roland Garros. Until Djokovic proves otherwise, Nadal must be considered the favorite in a French Open final.
Other Notable Matches on Day 15:
In the women’s doubles championship at 11:30am Paris time, three-time Major champions Timea Babos and Kristina Mladenovic (2) vs. Alexa Guarachi and Desirae Krawczyk (14), the only players to notch a victory over Iga Swiatek this fortnight, defeating her and Nicole Melichar in the semifinals.
