Next week will see the first ATP Tour event take place in five months at the Western and Southern Open in its temporary location of New York.
Professional men’s tennis has been halted due to the COVID-19 pandemic with the lower-level Challenger Tour only managing to resume this week. The lengthy pause in action has led to speculation over how some players will be when they return to the court next week and if there will be any shocks at this year’s US Open, which starts on August 31st. The event will be without either Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer for the first time since 1999.
Two former players have somewhat contrasting views on what may happen in New York. Patrick McEnroe takes the view that the current best players in the world will still dominate the sport when they return. Prior to the Tour suspension, world No.1 Novak Djokovic was on a 18-match winning streak and won three tournaments in a row. Including a record eighth Australian Open.
“People say, ‘Oh, maybe someone’s going to come through and win the US Open. Maybe someone who is like Thiem or Tsitsipas who’s already there. I don’t see someone coming out of nowhere. That just doesn’t happen. I don’t see that happening,” McEnroe said during an interview with atptour.com. “That’s not saying it’s a lock that Djokovic is going to win. You can certainly make the argument that he might be more susceptible. But I don’t see someone coming out of nowhere and winning the Open.”
54-year-old McEnroe is a former US Open quarter-finalist himself in both the singles and doubles. During his playing career he reached a doubles high of No.3 with his sole Grand Slam triumph occurring at the 1989 French Open. After retiring, he also spent a period as the American Davis Cup captain. In his view this year’s US Open will see ‘the cream will rise to the top’ with the top names dominating.
On the other hand, another former American tennis star has an alternative theory. Brad Gilbert believes the unique circumstances of this year’s event could lead to a surprise run in the men’s draw. Due to the pandemic, the event will be taking place behind closed doors for the first time in history.
“It’s a little bit like the NCAA Tournament in basketball. You might get somebody who is a really low seed to make the semi-finals or a deep run,” Gilbert commented in a separate interview with the ATP. “I just have a feeling that without a crowd, without a couple guys who are always there not being there, the opportunity is there.”
Gilbert, who has coached the likes of Andre Agassi and Andy Murray, believes Djokovic is a ‘huge favourite’ providing he is 100 percent fit. Although he does expect to see some ‘crazy results’ over the coming weeks with the door opening for a player to potentially breakthrough.
“I do think we’re going to see some crazy results,” he said. “But let’s say even if the Big Three was playing after all this time, I just don’t think that after something like this you’d expect it to be business as normal… I do think somebody’s going to make a semi or final who is going to be a real surprise. I do think the biggest surprise is going to be somebody who maybe you don’t think about and doesn’t play that well on a big stadium or a big crowd.”
Over the past 20 years only two players have won the US Open men’s title while being outside the top 10 seedings. They were Pete Sampras in 2002 and Marin Cilic in 2014. Although both of them were still seeded in the draw. The last unseeded player to win was Agassi back in 1994. As for the Big Three, they have won 12 out of the last 16 editions between them.
