French Open Day 6 Preview: Five Must-See Matches

On Friday in Paris, Rafael Nadal will face his first opponent ranked inside the top 100, a man who defeated him just 18 months ago, though under very different circumstances. Roger Federer will face the son of a man who was on tour when Roger first played at Roland Garros 20 years ago. And speaking of one-handed backhands, Stan Wawrinka and Grigor Dimitrov will square off, with the winner possibly facing yet another one-handed backhand in the next round, in Stefanos Tsitsipas.

On the women’s side, Naomi Osaka will seek a more comfortable win than her previous two matches, where she fought back from a set and a break down on each occasion. World No.2 Karolina Pliskova is the only other woman remaining who can leave this tournament atop the rankings, but she’ll face a stern test in a seeded player who owns a winning record against her. And 2016 champion Garbine Muguruza may be rounding back into form, though she’ll surely be challenged by top 10 player Elina Svitolina.

Rafael Nadal (2) vs. David Goffin (27)

Goffin defeated a less-than-100% Nadal on an indoor hard court at the 2017 ATP Finals. But trying to become the third person in 89 tries to defeat Rafa at Roland Garros remains the sport’s biggest challenge. Nadal has taken all three of their other previous meetings in straight sets. And Goffin arrived in Paris with a losing record on the year, as he continues to struggle with confidence after battling a few injuries last season. This should be another straight set win for Nadal, in a section of the draw that is setting up beautifully for the 11-time champion.

Elina Svitolina (9) vs. Garbine Muguruza (19)

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Since winning her second Major at Wimbledon nearly two years ago, Muguruza has won just two titles. But as we’ve been before, Garbine can quickly round into form as a fortnight progresses, and is extremely formidable when she gains confidence. And Roland Garros has easily been her best Slam event, where she owns a 26-5 career record. Muguruza has made the second week of this tournament in each of the last five years, an extremely notable accomplishment for a player who normally lacks consistency. Contrarily, consistency is something Svitolina does possess, as well as 13 career titles outside of the Majors. However, at the Majors, while she’s reached four quarterfinals, she’s yet to advance farther. Svitolina arrived in Paris on a three-match losing streak, as she’s been struggling with a knee injury. I’m sure she didn’t mind getting a walkover in the last round, following a solid first round win over Venus Williams. Svitolina is 5-3 against Muguruza, having taken five of their last six matches. But it feels like Muguruza could be revving up again for another run at a Major, so I give her the slight edge over Svitolina, who has only played three matches since March.

Stan Wawrinka (24) vs. Grigor Dimitrov

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Will Dimitrov have anything left after surviving two five-setters this week? He’s already been on court for seven-and-a-half hours, which is a lot for a player who has not done much winning of late. Wawrinka advanced much more easily to this stage, most impressively dropping only five games to up-and-coming clay court specialist Cristian Garin on Wednesday. While they’re 4-4 lifetime against each other, Stan is the man who ousted Dimitrov in the opening rounds of both Wimbledon and the US Open last year. This would be Wawrinka’s first round of 16 at a Major since his knee injury two years ago, and he’ll likely get past a tired Grigor who has never advanced that far at this tournament.

Karolina Pliskova (2) vs. Petra Martic (31)

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Martic actually owns a 3-1 record over the world No.2, so this is a dangerous matchup for the Rome champion despite her current seven-match win streak. Pliskova did get the best of Martic earlier this year in Miami, where she won in straights. In a section of the draw that’s light on top names, Pliskova has a good shot at returning to the semis. She was a semifinalist here two years ago, and possesses the fire power to control her destiny in this match. I like her chances considering her form and more positive attitude since joining forces with Conchita Martinez.

Anastasija Sevastova (12) vs. Elise Mertens (20)

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Here we get a rare meeting between two top 20 players in the first week of a Major, especially on the women’s side where seeds have often fallen quickly in recent years. But these are two of the WTA’s steadiest players of late. Both are also Major semifinalists: Mertens at last year’s Australian Open, and Sevastova at last year’s US Open. Anastasija is certainly the more emotional player, who can get down on herself extremely quickly in a match. But she can also drive her opponents crazy with the variety in her game. Their only previous meeting was on grass two years ago, which Anastasija won in three sets. But I’m giving the slight edge to Mertens, the player with stronger results at the French Open, as well as three clay court titles over the past few seasons. Sevastova has never gone farther than this round in Paris despite having played here many more years than Mertens. Elise reached the round of 16 last year in just her second appearance.

Other notable matches on Day 6:

• Roger Federer (3) vs. Casper Rudd, a 20-year-old from Norway. Neither man has dropped a set this week.
• Stefanos Tsitsipas (6) vs. Filip Krajinovic. The 27-year-old Serbian was a surprise finalist at the Paris Indoors 18 months ago. Including challenger events, he owns 16 clay court wins over the past two months.
• Kei Nishikori (7) vs. Laslo Djere (31). This 23-year-old Serbian won a clay court title earlier this year in Rio de Janeiro, and also reached two other clay semifinals since February.
• Sloane Stephens (7) vs. Polona Hercog. Sloane is 3-0 against the 25-year-old Slovenian, and just defeated her a few weeks ago in Madrid.
• Belinda Benic (15) vs. Donna Vekic (23). This should be an interesting encounter between two rising stars in their early-20’s who could meet for years to come on the WTA tour.

Order of play