Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will play their fourth round matches on Monday in a crowded half of the men’s draw. The women’s draw has given us many great matches over the weekend, with more intriguing matchups on the schedule for Labor Day in the US.
Karolina Pliskova vs. Jennifer Brady
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Pliskova has not played like a world number one thus far at the Open. She’s survived 6-4 in the final set in each of her last two matches, even having to save match point against Zhang Shuai in her third round. Normally such an escape might free up a player to play better, but Karolina was obviously suffering from an arm injury on Saturday. She’s also admitted to feeling the pressure of performing at a high standard as the recently-crowned world number one. Jennifer Brady also escaped trouble in her match on Saturday, defeating tricky opponent Monica Niculescu in a third set tiebreak. It’s been a breakout season for Brady. She advanced to the fourth round at the Australian Open in January, which was her first ever main draw appearance at a major. She’s impressively now matched that result in New York. Can she go one step further and upset the world number one in front of her home crowd? If Pliskova does not raise her level, and is not feeling 100%, it’s entirely possible. I would still expect Pliskova to play better here, and would not be surprised to see Brady a bit overwhelmed by the occasion in her Arthur Ashe Stadium debut.
Rafael Nadal vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov
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Nadal has suffered from slow starts where he dropped the opening set to unseeded opponents in both of his last two matches, but came back to easily win in four sets. He won’t want to get off to a similar start against Dolgopolov, who can be a dangerous adversary and has beaten Nadal twice before. One of those victories came on an American hard court in 2014, as Dolgopolov prevailed in a final set tiebreak in Indian Wells. It’s been a controversial week for Dolgopolov, as he’s been grilled in his press conferences regarding an ongoing investigation into match-fixing allegations. It’s related to irregular betting patterns that occurred on a match he played two weeks ago in Winston-Salem. Alexandr has been aggressive in his responses to the press, using colorful language to accuse the press of creating “fairytales” and claiming he and his family have received threats on social media due to the scrutiny. Will that serve as a distraction or as motivation for Dolgopolov as he takes to the big stage of Arthur Ashe Stadium to face the world number one? Dolgopolov’s unorthodox game can be extremely challenging when he’s on, but he can also go away quickly when he’s not. Nadal will be eager to raise his level as the second week of the tournament commences.
Dominic Thiem vs. Juan Martin Del Potro
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Fans attending the Open on Monday without Arthur Ashe Stadium tickets must be delighted to find this blockbuster matchup scheduled for late afternoon on the Grandstand. Thiem is the higher-ranked player and has had a much stronger season, but Del Potro has a much better hard court resume and played the best tennis of his season in ousting Roberto Bautista Agut on Saturday. Del Potro also holds a 2-0 record against Thiem, including their encounter at last year’s US Open in the very same round. It should be noted though that Thiem retired from that match after a set and a half due to a knee injury. Del Potro will look to dictate play with his monstrous forehand, while Thiem will of course need to keep the ball to Juan Martin’s weak backhand as much as possible. This should be a big-hitting affair in front of a pumped up crowd. It’s hard to not root for Del Potro after all he’s been through, and I hope I’m thinking with my head just as much as my heart when I say I think the Argentine may pull this one out.
Roger Federer vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
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The night session on Arthur Ashe Stadium will kick off with Federer facing yet another opponent he has dominated throughout his career. Roger is a now a combined 43-0 against his first four opponents at this US Open, which includes his 11-0 record against Kohlschreiber. After having two five-setters in his first two rounds, Federer looked much more like himself in easily dispatching of Feliciano Lopez on Saturday night. While Kohlschreiber has yet to drop a set in this tournament, he’s also yet to face a seeded player. This should be straightforward for Federer, but let’s keep an eye on his movement and his back as we see if he’s able to maintain his high level of play from Saturday.
Elina Svitolina vs. Madison Keys
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This should be a fascinating match to end the evening, with a home favorite against one of three ladies who can be the world number one as of next Monday. Svitolina leads the tour with five titles in 2017, but is yet to breakthrough at a major. In the quarterfinals at Roland Garros, she completely melted down after holding a set and 5-1 lead over Simona Halep. How will Elina respond to the pressure of a night match on Ashe with the crowd solidly behind a popular American opponent? Keys herself did not handle the spotlight of a night match on Ashe all too well in her last round, as she was visibly overwhelmed against Elena Vesnina. Keys though was able to regain her composure and come back to win in a match that went until almost 2:00am. Will that late finish hamper Keys in this round? I’m very curious to see how both players handle themselves on this big occasion. Keys is 1-0 against Svitolina, with that victory coming two years ago at a US Open warm-up event in New Haven, though Svitolina is a different player now. I expect a tight, nervy contest, and give the slight edge to Keys to prevail.
Order of play
Arthur Ashe Stadium (11am local time)
Karolina Pliskova (CZE)(1) v Jennifer Brady (US)
Rafael Nadal (ESP)(1) v Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR)
CoCo Vandeweghe (US)(20) v Lucie Safarova (CZE)
Not before 19:00
Roger Federer (SUI)(3) v Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER)(32)
Elina Svitolina (UKR)(4) v Madison Keys (USA)(15)
Louis Armstrong Stadium (Not before 12 PM)
David Goffin (BEL)(9) v Andrey Rublev (RUS)
Daria Kasatkina (RUS) v Kaia Kanepi (EST)
Grandstand
Juan Martin del Potro (ARG)(24) v Dominic Thiem (AUT)(6) – After three doubles matches
