Now that he has won a record 28th Masters 1000 title and all three of the last Grand Slam tournaments he has played in, some are starting to wonder if Novak Djokovic is really dominating the men’s tour due to a lack of competition. It was obvious in Miami and Indian Wells how the Serb didn’t really need to show his best game to win back-to-back titles and conquer the American Spring double for an impressive 4th time in his career.
Starting with the 2015 season, Novak has been dominating men’s tennis in a way that was hardly ever seen before. Featuring in all four Grand Slam finals played so far in 2015 and 2016 and winning 4 out of 5 titles sounds as titanic of an achievement as it should, for those knowing tennis and its rules. When the Serb closed 2015 winning the title in London at the O2 Arena, Rafael Nadal and the rest of the field repeated how hard it is in tennis to dominate for such a stretched amount of time. ”Novak can’t dominate for ever’‘ said the other players on the tour after the umpteenth lost to the Serb. Apparently, the Serb doesn’t fit in the human category of dominators, as his 2016 curriculum cites so far the victories at the Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami and Doha, for a 28-1 record so far in the season.
When Novak outplayed 2014 US Open runner-up and top 6 player Kei Nishikori in the final of Miami, many started raising doubts about how valuable the Serb’s dominance over men’s tennis can be, considering an evident lack of competition. If even a Grand Slam finalist and a solid member of the top 6 spots in the rankings can’t win a set against a 80% Djokovic, then what does that say about men’s tennis right now?
We therefore decided to compare the three biggest periods of dominance in men’s tennis over the past decade or so, with Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic clearly taking turns in outplaying the competition. We decided to focus more on Grand Slam results, the tournaments that clearly matter the most, and analyse the quality of opponents met in the final for those 3 players in their top moments of form and in their career.
ROGER FEDERER – 17 Grand Slam titles
2003 Wimbledon
b. Mark Philippoussis 7-6 6-2 7-6
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 8
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 0
2004 Australian Open
b. Marat Safin 7-6 6-4 6-2
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 2
2004 Wimbledon
b. Andy Roddick 6-2 7-6 6-4
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 1
2004 US Open
b. Lleyton Hewitt 6-0 7-6 6-0
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 2
2005 Wimbledon
b. Andy Roddick 6-2 7-6 6-4
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 1
2005 US Open
b. Andre Agassi 6-3 2-6 7-6 6-1
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 8
2006 Australian Open
b. Marcos Baghdatis 5-7 7-5 6-0 6-2
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 8
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 0
2006 Wimbledon
b. Rafael Nadal 6-0 7-6 6-7 6-3
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 14
2006 US Open
b. Andy Roddick 6-2 4-6 7-5 6-1
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 1
2007 Australian Open
b. Fernando Gonzalez 7-6 6-4 6-4
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 5
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 0
2007 Wimbledon
b. Rafael Nadal 7-6 4-6 7-6 2-6 6-2
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 14
2007 US Open
b. Novak Djokovic 7-6 7-6 6-4
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 11
2008 US Open
b. Andy Murray 6-2 7-5 6-2
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 2
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 2
2009 French Open
b. Robin Soderling 6-1 7-6 6-4
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 4
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 0
2009 Wimbledon
b. Andy Roddick 5-7 7-6 7-6 3-6 16-14
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 1
2010 Australian Open
b. Andy Murray 6-3 6-4 7-6
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 2
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 2
2012 Wimbledon
b. Andy Murray 4-6 7-5 6-3 6-4
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 2
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 2
RAFAEL NADAL – 14 Grand Slam titles
2005 French Open
b. Mariano Puerta 6-7 6-3 6-1 7-5
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 9
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 0
2006 French Open
b. Roger Federer 1-6 6-1 6-4 7-6
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 17
2007 French Open
b. Roger Federer 6-3 4-6 6-3 6-4
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 14
2008 French Open
b. Roger Federer 6-1 6-3 6-0
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 17
2008 Wimbledon
b. Roger Federer 6-4 6-4 6-7 6-7 9-7
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 14
2009 Australian Open
b. Roger Federer 7-5 3-6 7-6 3-6 6-2
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 14
2010 French Open
b. Robin Soderling 6-4 6-2 6-4
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 4
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 0
2010 Wimbledon
b. Tomas Berdych 6-3 7-5 6-4
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 4
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 0
2010 US Open
b. Novak Djokovic 6-4 5-7 6-4 6-2
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 11
2011 French Open
b. Roger Federer 7-5 7-6 5-7 6-1
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 17
2012 French Open
b. Novak Djokovic 6-4 6-3 2-6 7-5
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 11
2013 French Open
b. David Ferrer 6-3 6-2 6-3
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 3
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 0
2013 US Open
b. Novak Djokovic 6-2 3-6 6-4 6-1
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 11
2014 French Open
b. Novak Djokovic 3-6 7-5 6-2 6-4
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 11
NOVAK DJOKOVIC – 11 Grand Slam Titles
2008 Australian Open
b. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 4-6 6-4 6-3 7-6
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 5
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 0
2011 Australian Open
b. Andy Murray 6-4 6-2 6-3
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 2
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 2
2011 Wimbledon
b. Rafael Nadal 6-4 6-1 1-6 6-3
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 14
2011 US Open
b. Rafael Nadal 6-2 6-4 6-7 6-1
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 14
2012 Australian Open
b. Rafael Nadal 5-7 6-4 6-2 6-7 7-5
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 14
2013 Australian Open
b. Andy Murray 6-7 7-6 6-3 6-2
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 2
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 2
2014 Wimbledon
b. Roger Federer 6-7 6-4 7-6 5-7 6-4
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 17
2015 Australian Open
b. Andy Murray 7-6 6-7 6-3 6-0
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 2
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 2
2015 Wimbledon
b. Roger Federer 7-6 6-7 6-4 6-3
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 17
2015 US Open
b. Roger Federer 6-4 5-7 6-4 6-4
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 1
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 17
2016 Australian Open
b. Andy Murray 6-1 7-5 7-6
Opponent’s Career High Ranking: 2
Opponent’s Grand Slam titles: 2
DATA ANALYSIS
Analyzing the data, we can see that out of the 17 times Roger Federer won a Grand Slam, 13 times he had to beat an opponent that would go on and win at least a major title in his career. Rafael Nadal had to beat Grand Slam winners 10 times out of his 14 last act winning appearances in majors. Novak Djokovic had to beat major winners 10 out of the 11 times he won a Grand Slam in his career.
Percentages are:
Roger Federer: 76% of major winners beaten in Grand Slam finals
Rafael Nadal: 71% of major winners beaten in Grand Slam finals
Novak Djokovic: 90% of major winners beaten in Grand Slam finals
That is already a percentage quite favorable to the Serb in showing he had to beat the toughest competition on tour in order to pursue his career dreams.
Average highest ranking for opponents faced in finals is:
Roger Federer: 2.41 average highest ranking for opponents faced in major finals
Rafael Nadal: 2.14 average highest ranking for opponents faced in major finals
Novak Djokovic: 1.72 average highest ranking for opponents faced in major finals
Even on the average highest ranking for the opponents beaten in the final, the Serb comes up on top compared to both Federer and Nadal.
THE FAB FOUR FACTOR
A very important analysis has to be made considering the four best players of this generation, the so called FAB-FOUR. To beat a member of the FAB-FOUR in a major final is already a clear sign of dominance. To beat more than one FAB-FOUR in the same Grand Slam tournament is an achievement that is rarely seen and has to be considered carefully in this analysis.
Roger Federer started winning Grand Slam tournaments before the Fab Four even existed, but the Swiss had to confront himself with the upcoming generation and then more continuously in the latter stages of his dominance.
Federer managed to beat more than one Fab Four in his route to victory at the US Open in 2008 (SF + Djokovic, F + Murray) and at Wimbledon in 2012 (SF + Djokovic, F + Murray) for a total of 2 times.
Nadal has managed to beat more than one Fab Four in his route to a major title at the French Open in 2006 (QF + Djokovic, F + Federer), at the French Open again in 2007 (SF + Djokovic, F + Federer) and in 2008 (SF + Djokovic, F + Federer). Nadal achieved the feat also at Wimbledon in 2008 (QF + Murray, F + Federer) and at the French Open in 2011 (SF + Murray, F + Federer). Finally, Nadal beat 2 Fab Four at the 2014 French Open (SF + Murray, F + Djokovic) bringing his total to 6 Grand Slam titles conquered beating at least 2 Fab Four in his way to the title.
Djokovic managed the feat at the Australian Open in 2011 (SF + Federer, F + Murray) and the US Open in the same year (SF + Federer, F + Nadal). Novak repeated himself in 2012 at the Australian Open (SF + Murray, F + Nadal). Finally, the Serb repeated himself in 2016 at the Australian Open (SF + Federer, F + Murray) bringing his grand total to 4 major titles won beating at least 2 Fab Four in his route to victory.
Nadal leads this chart, but Djokovic could tie the Spaniard already this year, if he continues winning the way he is doing and if all Fab Four will continue going far in Grand Slam tournaments.
To consider the FAB FOUR factor, let’s also analyze the Head-2-Head for each player with the other 3 completing the special group.
FEDERER
vs. Nadal 11-23
vs. Djokovic 22-23
vs. Murray 14-11
NADAL
vs. Federer 23-11
vs. Djokovic 23-25
vs. Murray 16-6
DJOKOVIC
vs. Federer 23-22
vs. Nadal 25-23
vs. Murray 22-9
Djokovic is the only player who has a favorable Head-2-Head record with all three other members of the Fab Four group.
FINAL CONSIDERATIONS
Djokovic entered the tennis world at his top when Federer and Nadal were at their best, dominating every single major event. The Serb faced tough losses, but learned each time something more when losing to the Swiss and the Spaniard. To fight his way to the top of the men’s game, Djokovic has had to repeatedly beat the top opponents, including all three others of the Fab Four group, of which Nadal and Federer are part of together with Andy Murray.
It is hard to see such a tough path in any other of the dominators of this generation, with Nadal being the only player capable of facing a similar path to reach the top of the men’s game.
Clearly, the Serb has fought and beat the very best, continuously over the years, to prove his value as world No.1. His dominance might be boring to some, but to denounce a lack of competition, clearly would be not stating the truth.
