It’s Championship Sunday in Monte Carlo.
Carlos Alcaraz goes for his sixth Masters 1000 title on Sunday, and his third on clay, against Lorenzo Musetti, who is playing in the biggest final of his career. In Saturday’s semifinals, Alcaraz defeated Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in a highly-competitive straight-setter, while Musetti required a third-set tiebreak to overcome Alex de Minaur. Which player will become a first-time Monte Carlo champion on Sunday?
Following the singles final, the doubles final will be staged, which sees Julian Cash and Lloyd Glasspool (7) vs. Romain Arneodo and Manuel Guinard (WC).
Lorenzo Musetti (13) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (2) – 12:00pm on Court Rainier III
Alcaraz is now 19-4 on the year, though his level of play has varied greatly. Even against Davidovich Fokina on Saturday, Carlitos’ form dipped several different times. But just as he did against Arthur Fils in the quarterfinals, Alcaraz raised his game during the most crucial moments, with his opponent unable to match his level. This would be Carlitos’ second title of the season, after winning an indoor hard court title in Rotterdam. And Alcaraz is a superb 5-1 in Masters 1000 finals, with his only loss coming during the memorable four-hour final of Cincinnati two years ago against Novak Djokovic.
Musetti has only previously appeared in ATP finals at 250 and 500 level. He won his first two, which includes a clay court victory over Alcaraz in the final of Hamburg in 2022. That was a thrilling contest, during which Alcaraz saved a handful of match points, yet the Italian still prevailed 6-4 in the third. Yet that remains the biggest title Lorenzo has earned to date, as well as his last one. He reached three additional finals last season, one on each surface, but lost all three. The 23-year-old is 12-4 during 2025, and he’s endured a complicated path to this final, with four of his five matches this week going the distance.
And Musetti’s victory over Alcaraz in the Hamburg final remains his only one over the Spaniard. Carlitos has taken their last three meetings in straight sets, all by set scores of either 6-2 or 6-3. However, this feels like a less confident version of Alcaraz than we’ve seen during most of the past three years. And as popular as Carlitos is, there will be plenty of Italians in the crowd vociferously rooting for Lorenzo, with Monte Carlo located so close to Italy.
We should expect a lot of complex and compelling rallies between these two flashy shot-makers. The way each player normally performs in big matches, and especially in pressure moments, certainly makes Alcaraz the favorite, but not as heavy a favorite as their history suggests. Given Carlitos’ recent lapses, and given all the recent upsets the ATP tour has provided, I would not be shocked to watch Musetti take his career to a new level on Sunday.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
