Let’s retrace the impressive journey of Britain’s number one. Plenty of highlights, but still a few steps to climb.
This year’s Indian Wells tournament, marked by Sinner’s absence and early exits from Zverev and Alcaraz, was full of surprises. Jack Draper emerged victorious, claiming his first Masters 1000 title after a solid and convincing week. The Brit, often slowed by injuries in recent seasons, displayed significant growth, achieving consistency and maturity in his game. With this victory, Draper has firmly established himself among the players to watch for the remainder of the season. It remains to be seen whether this triumph will be a launching pad for further success or merely an isolated event. To find some answers, we’ll rely—as we’ve often done—on statistics from Tennis_insights, the ATP channel dedicated to advanced metrics.
Jack’s Tournament
The road to the final was not without obstacles for the Brit: Fritz and Shelton playing on home soil, a dangerous Fonseca in the opening round who troubled Draper for large parts of the first set, and finally, the semifinal itself.
The British player’s road to the final wasn’t easy; he had to face Fritz and Shelton, both playing on home soil, and a dangerous Fonseca who troubled Draper for much of the first set, plus a challenging semifinal.
Draper’s Performance Ratings (via Tennis Insights X Account):
- vs Fonseca: 8.37
- vs Brooksby: 8.37
- vs Fritz: 8.65
- vs Shelton: 8.34
- vs Alcaraz: 8.56
All solid performances, consistently high-level, yet highlighting there’s still room for improvement.
GAME ON
— Tennis Insights (@tennis_insights) March 16, 2025
The Draper forehand has been the shot of the tournamentCan he maintain
Shout-out to Rune's defence, tops the IW #StealScore leaderboard with a massive 42.5%
Rune has also been winning 58% of 9+ rallies in IW (his avg. 49%)#TennisInsights |… pic.twitter.com/kgtaHUAVq7
Against Rune, Jack raised his game even further. Determining how much Rune’s off day—both tactically and technically—affected the match versus how much credit goes exclusively to Draper is challenging. Nonetheless, Draper undoubtedly stepped up, delivering his best statistical performance of the tournament.
The highest Performance Rating of Indian Wells 2025
— Tennis Insights (@tennis_insights) March 16, 2025
What a time to do it
Congratulations @jackdraper0#TennisInsights | @BNPPARIBASOPEN pic.twitter.com/EI1UocTlHF
A clearly dominant final for Draper, even though Rune tried to play more aggressively during the second set, but without really being impactful. While Holger significantly increased his percentage of attacking points in the second set, he ultimately failed to capitalize effectively, converting only 57% of those opportunities. In other words, Rune managed to win just 57% of points when he had taken control (“in attack” in ATP metrics). For context, Sinner—firmly established among tennis elite—regularly achieves conversion rates comfortably above 70%.
It is now clear that Draper had an outstanding tournament, and certainly, he can’t be blamed if his competitors:
- commit tennis suicide (Zverev),
- are struck by personal turmoil (Alcaraz)
- or find themselves stuck in jail like on a Monopoly board (Sinner).
Given these recent results, the key question now becomes: Is Draper genuinely stepping into the hard-court elite, or is he destined to become a shooting star?
Let’s examine the data from his last 52 sets.
In the image, Draper’s performance at Indian Wells is indicated in green, while his average over the last 52 sets is marked in yellow. It’s clear that Draper had a remarkable surge at Indian Wells compared to his usual standard. Undoubtedly, the British player has shown impressive progress lately—with a semifinal at the US Open and victory in Vienna in 2024 as notable examples—but there remains a visible gap between these peak performances and his average cruising speed. Probably, we’ll need a few more months to understand who the real Draper is. Nonetheless, let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and ask ourselves: could this outstanding Indian Wells level become his new normal, or is it merely a temporary spike?
What emerges clearly from comparing these stats is that Draper, at his current best, can hold his own against Sinner’s everyday level—the standard version of Jannik who shows up regularly to the office and takes care of business.
On the other hand, comparing Draper’s Indian Wells-winning version with Fritz, it’s clear that today’s Draper is fully capable of competing with—and potentially beating—the average level displayed by Fritz.
Essentially, what we’re saying is that Draper still can’t reach the heights where Sinner soars. However, where the Fritz and the rest of the pack stumble, the situation changes. If Jack can maintain this level, he is certainly capable of staying competitive and giving real substance to his legitimate ambitions of cementing himself in the top ten.
