The men’s singles semifinals will be played on Saturday, as will the championship matches in both men’s and women’s doubles.
Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev are one round away from facing off in the championship match for a third consecutive year. But first, each faces tough opposition in Saturday’s semifinals. Alcaraz plays a surging Jack Draper, while Medvedev takes on fellow Masters 1000 champion Holger Rune.
This preview will analyze the two most prominent matches of the day, while taking note of the other singles quarterfinals. Saturday’s play gets underway at 11:00am local time.
Holger Rune (12) vs. Daniil Medvedev (5) – Not Before 1:30pm on Stadium 1
Medvedev survived a grueling battle in extremely windy conditions against Arthur Fils on Thursday, eventually prevailing 9-7 in a third-set tiebreak. He is vying for his first final since a full year ago at this same event, and Daniil hasn’t won a title in nearly two years, since the Rome Masters in May of 2023. He has spoken openly about losing his joy and passion for the sport of late, and got off to a slow start this season after taking some time away from the court for the birth of his second daughter during the offseason.
Rune arrived in “Tennis Paradise” just 6-6 on the year, and having lost four of his last six matches. Yet he’s endured a pair of three-setters through four rounds, and already eliminated two top 20 players (Humbert, Tsitsipas). This is Holger’s sixth Masters 1000 semifinal, a round in which he is 3-2 previously, though he’s lost his last two appearances.
Their head-to-head stands at 2-1 in Medvedev’s favor. They split two meetings on clay, and then a year ago at this tournament, Daniil was victorious 7-5, 6-4. But I have a sneaking suspicion we will not be getting an Alcaraz/Medvedev final for the third straight year. Rune feels due for a big result, and Medvedev feels vulnerable to an upset, as this is the first time this season he’s won more than two matches in a row. So while Daniil is the favorite on paper, I’m picking Holger to win a tight semifinal on Saturday.
Jack Draper (13) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (2) – Immediately Following Rune/Medvedev on Stadium 1
Alcaraz has now won his last 16 matches at Indian Wells, and hasn’t lost here since the 2022 semifinals, when Rafael Nadal defeated him on an alarmingly windy day. Carlitos has also won all eight sets he’s contested this fortnight, and his quarterfinal against Francisco Cerundolo was the first time an opponent took more than six games off him. The Spaniard is 6-2 in Masters 1000 semifinals, and has won his last three.
Draper is also yet to drop a set, and with a victory on Saturday, would make his debut inside the ATP top 10. Jack has defeated three straight Americans (Brooksby, Fritz, Shelton) to achieve his first Masters 1000 semifinal. The 23-year-old Brit is now 11-2 on the year, and is looking to reach his second consecutive final, after being the runner-up a few weeks ago in Doha.
Just two months ago at the Australian Open, Draper retired in the fourth round after losing the first two sets to Alcaraz, as Jack had little left after playing three five-setters in as many rounds. Overall Alcaraz is 3-1 against Draper, with Jack’s only victory coming last June on grass at Queen’s Club. As impressive as Draper’s play has been of late, and as elite as his serving and returning has been, the slow-playing conditions in Indian Wells favor Alcaraz. Until someone figures out a way to challenge Carlitos at this tournament, the two-time defending champion is the favorite to continue winning, especially against an opponent facing the pressure of breaking new ground in his career.
Other Notable Matches on Saturday:
Asia Muhammad and Demi Schuurs vs. Tereza Mihalikova and Olivia Nicholls – Both teams are playing for the first titles of their partnerships, though Muhammad and Schuurs are the more accomplished doubles players.
Marcelo Arevalo and Mate Pavic (1) vs. Sebastian Korda and Jordan Thompson – Arevalo and Pavic are vying for their first title of 2025, but they claimed four last season, including Roland Garros. Korda and Thompson are teaming up for just the third time.
Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.
