Australian Open Daily Preview: Osaka and Garcia Meet in the First Round… Again - UBITENNIS

Australian Open Daily Preview: Osaka and Garcia Meet in the First Round… Again

By Matthew Marolf
10 Min Read
Naomi Osaka is a two-time Australian Open championtwitter.com/AustralianOpen

First round singles action continues on Monday in Melbourne.

A year ago in this same round, Caroline Garcia defeated Naomi Osaka in straight sets.  The tennis gods have decided to provide us with a rematch on Monday, as well as provide Osaka with a chance to avenge that loss.

Day 2 also sees a battle between two Major champions who know each other very well, as Coco Gauff takes on Sofia Kenin.  Plus, a returning Belinda Bencic faces Jelena Ostapenko.

And big names such as Jannik Sinner, Iga Swiatek, Carlos Alcaraz, and Novak Djokovic will all play their opening matches on Monday.

Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s four most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule.  Monday’s play gets underway at 11:00am local time.


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Coco Gauff (3) vs. Sofia Kenin – 11:30am on Rod Laver Arena

After disappointing results at big events in 2024, Coco Gauff may now be playing the best tennis of her career.  She and Brad Gilbert parted ways following the US Open in September, with Gauff hiring Matt Daly as her new coach.  Coco has also made changes to her serve and forehand motions, and now appears much more confident in those strokes.  Since the US Open, she’s won 18 of her last 20 matches, and won three tournaments (Beijing, WTA Finals, United Cup).  And perhaps most notably, Gauff defeated Iga Swiatek twice during that span, after previously going 1-11 against Iga.

It was five years ago at this event when Kenin became one of the sport’s more surprising Major champions.  But the past several seasons have been filled with injuries, illness, and a lack of confidence, and she’s now barely ranked inside the top 100.  Sofia is just 1-4 at the Australian Open since winning the title.

However, Kenin is 2-1 against Gauff, with both victories coming at Majors.  She defeated Coco five years ago during her title run here, as well as two summers ago at Wimbledon, in a first-round loss that motivated Gauff to make changes to her team.  But on Monday, Coco is a significant favorite.  She’s the most in-form WTA player coming into this tournament, and Sofia won just 14 matches last season at tour level.


Belinda Bencic vs. Jelena Ostapenko (16) – Second on 1573 Arena

This is Bencic’s first Major since the 2023 US Open, as she missed a year of play to give birth to her first child.  She played a few lower-level events in the fall, and is 2-2 at tour level to start off the 2025 season.  Belinda was playing well during 2023, as she reached the fourth round at three of the four Majors that year, though she’s never advanced farther in Melbourne.

The ever-streaky Ostapenko got off to a strong start to her season a year ago, winning two titles within the first five weeks of 2024.  But these last six months, she’s been on one of the worst streaks of her career.  Since losing in the Wimbledon quarterfinals last summer, she’s just 2-7 in singles, though Jelena did win the women’s doubles title at the US Open in September.

These players have split two prior encounters.  Seven years ago in Indian Wells, Ostapenko prevailed in three.  Five years ago at this same tournament, Bencic prevailed 7-5, 7-5.  In a rubber match that feels like it could easily go either way, I give the slight edge to Belinda based on Jelena’s recent struggles.  Bencic’s more reliable game and all-court style of play should enable her to draw a plethora of errors off the ultra-aggressive Jelena.


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Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Nicolas Jarry – Not Before 2:00pm on Rod Laver Arena

Sinner is the winner of the last two hard court Majors, and now looks to defend a Major title for the first time in his career.  But for the second Major in a row, he arrives amidst breaking news regarding his failed drug tests from last year.  The World Anti-Doping Agency’s appeal regarding the International Tennis Integrity Agency’s decision to not suspend Jannik for what it found to be accidental contamination now has a court date of April 16-17 at the sporting world’s highest court: the Court of Arbitration.  WADA is seeking to ban Sinner from tennis for at least a year.

The World No.1 was not significantly impacted at the US Open by news breaking shortly before the event regarding his failed drug tests, but we’ll see if this new lingering court date affects him in Australia.  If it doesn’t, Sinner is a clear favorite to win his third Major, after going 73-6 during 2024, and 53-3 on hard courts.

Jarry reached a career-high ranking of No.16 in May of last year, after becoming a surprise runner-up at the Rome Masters.  But his results since that achievement have been unquestionably abysmal, with a record of 5-13.  So while Jannik and Nico share a 1-1 record against each other, with Jarry even pushing Sinner to three sets a few months ago in Beijing, the Italian should be able to rather comfortably win this first round matchup.


Naomi Osaka vs. Caroline Garcia – Last on Rod Laver Arena

This is another matchup on Monday where the combatants have split their prior meetings.  Their head-to-head stands at 2-2, with each winning a match against the other at recent Australian Opens.  They played three times within the first three months of 2024, with Garcia taking two of those three, all on hard courts.

Nearly a year later, and now a full year into her comeback after child birth, Osaka is still not back to her top form.  She went just 22-18 last season, and though she began 2025 by reaching her first final in nearly three years, she was forced to retire and reduced to tears after just four games of the Auckland final due to an abdominal injury.  When speaking to the media on Friday, Naomi described her MRI results as “not fantastic.”

Garcia also arrives with questions regarding her form, as Caroline hasn’t played a match since September.  The Frenchwoman ended her 2024 season early, citing exhaustion related to anxiety and panic attacks.  Hopefully the former World No.4 is in a healthy place now, but that is not ideal preparation for facing a four-time Major champion in the first round of the Australian Open.  So despite the abdominal issue, I favor Osaka on Monday evening.


Other Notable Matches on Monday:

Katerina Siniakova vs. Iga Swiatek (2) – Swiatek is 4-1 to start the season, but appeared quite frustrated during her straight-set loss to Gauff in the final of the United Cup.  This is her first meeting with Siniakova, who as per Tennis Abstract hasn’t beaten a top five player in nearly a year.

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Novak Djokovic (7) vs. Nishesh Basavareddy (WC) – Djokovic is going for his 11th Australian Open and 25th Major, with Andy Murray as a new addition to his coaching team.  Basavareddy is a 19-year-old American who reached six Challenger finals from July to November of last year, and advanced to the semifinals of Auckland this past week as a qualifier.

Alexander Shevchenko vs. Carlos Alcaraz (3) – Alcaraz has stated winning the Australian Open, and completing his career Grand Slam, is his No.1 goal for this entire season.  But he’s yet to go beyond the quarterfinals in Melbourne, and did not play a lead-up event to start the year.  Last April in Madrid on clay, he easily defeated Shevchenko 6-2, 6-1.


Monday’s full Order of Play is here.

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