The quarterfinals conclude on Wednesday in Melbourne.
As per Ravi Ubha, Iga Swiatek has dropped fewer games through four rounds this fortnight (11) than she ever has at a Major. As per OptaAce, Emma Navarro is only the second women’s singles player in the Open Era to win four three-setters through four rounds of the Australian Open. So after completely opposite paths to the quarterfinals, can Emma challenge Iga on Wednesday? The winner will face either Madison Keys or Elina Svitolina in Thursday’s semifinals.
The ATP singles quarterfinals on Day 11 are highlighted by World No.1 Jannik Sinner taking on Australian No.1 Alex de Minaur. Plus, Ben Shelton vies for his second Major semifinal against Italy’s Lorenzo Sonego, who is making his Major quarterfinal debut.
Madison Keys (19) vs. Elina Svitolina (28) – 11:30am on Rod Laver Arena
This feels like a different, more confident version of Madison Keys. Newly-married, and sporting a new racket and a new service motion, she is 11-1 to start the season. And the Adelaide champion is now on a nine-match winning streak. Madison has already eliminated two top 10 seeds from this tournament (Collins, Rybakina), and she played aggressively, yet also intelligently, to close out the third set on Monday against Rybakina. This is an 11th Major quarterfinal for Keys, a round in which she is 6-4.
Svitolina has been a more confident, aggressive player herself since becoming a mother. This is her fourth Major quarterfinal out of the eight Majors she’s contested since giving birth, and in the last round, she remained undefeated against Russian players since Russia’s unprovoked invasion of her home country, Ukraine. Elina notably upset fourth-seeded Jasmine Paolini two rounds ago in three sets, which is the only set she’s lost this fortnight. However, the quarterfinal round of Majors has been a considerable stumbling block for Svitolina throughout most of her career, where she owns a record of 3-8.
Keys leads their head-to-head 3-2, with all five matches taking place on hard courts. At Majors, Svitolina leads 2-1. But in their first matchup in over three years, I favor Madison to reach her third Australian Open semifinal. She’s the more in-form player, and her power is tough to absorb on these fast-playing courts.
Emma Navarro (8) vs. Iga Swiatek (2) – Not Before 1:00pm on Rod Laver Arena
Through four rounds, Navarro has spent over 10 hours on court, compared to just four-and-a-half hours for Swiatek. Yet in their first career meeting at tour level, I actually think Emma can test Iga on Wednesday. The 23-year-old American is extremely fit, and is yet to show the ill effects of playing so many long matches.
Navarro also possesses an assortment of shots in her arsenal, and is capable of using her consistency to draw errors off Swiatek. And as easily as Iga has advanced to this stage, she’s also benefitted from a kind draw, as she’s yet to face a player ranked higher than 49th in the world. Plus, Iga has previously reached this round of the Australian Open only once, as this is not her preferred court speed.
So while Swiatek remains the favorite in this quarterfinal, I expect a tight encounter, and wouldn’t be shocked if Navarro grits her way to a second consecutive Slam semifinal.
Ben Shelton (21) vs. Lorenzo Sonego – Not Before 2:30pm on Rod Laver Arena
Shelton has won four highly-competitive matches to reach his third Major quarterfinal, and his second in Melbourne. A round after taking out 16th-seeded Lorenzo Musetti, he outlasted an in-form Gael Monfils on Monday. Ben arrived in Melbourne having lost four of his last five matches, but he has again upped his game at a big event, specifically another hard court Major.
This is a surprising quarterfinal run from Sonego, who had a losing record during 2024, and ended the season by losing eight of his last 12 matches. Though while he didn’t play a top 50 player in his first four rounds, he did defeat some notable names. Lorenzo beat former champion Stan Wawrinka, as well as a pair of teenage sensations who were enjoying their breakout Major: Joao Fonseca and Learner Tien.
These players have split two prior meetings. Three years ago on a hard court in Cincinnati, Shelton prevailed 7-5 in the third. Two years ago on clay at Roland Garros, Sonego prevailed 6-3 in the fourth. But back on a hard court, the ultra-powerful American should be able to outhit the Italian. And even though Lorenzo is seven years older than Ben, 22-year-old Shelton is the player with experience at this stage of a Major.
Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Alex de Minaur (8) – Not Before 7:30pm on Rod Laver Arena
Sinner was obviously dealing with some sort of illness during the last round against Holger Rune, as he was slow around the court, and was even shaking uncontrollably during one particular changeover. Yet after an extended medical timeout off-court, Jannik recovered enough to oust Holger in four sets. I would assume Sinner will be even more recovered come Wednesday evening. This is a fifth straight Major quarterfinal for the World No.1, and he’s now claimed 18 straight matches at hard court Majors.
This is a fourth straight Major quarterfinal for de Minaur, and his first at his home Slam, though he’s yet to advance beyond this round. The Australian has lost only one of 13 sets during this event, and has been playing the best tennis of his career this past year.
However, de Minaur is yet to find any traction against Sinner, as he’s 0-9 against Jannik. He’s lost their last six matches in straight sets, and without even pushing the Italian to a tiebreak. Sinner simply has too big a game, and is too well-rounded, for de Minaur to pose a threat. Jannik is a strong favorite to return to the Australian Open semifinals.
Wednesday’s full Order of Play is here.
