The quarterfinals commence on Tuesday in Melbourne.
When the draws were released prior to this fortnight, all eyes were on a potential quarterfinal between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. On Tuesday, that much-anticipated quarterfinal comes to fruition. The winner will advance to the semifinals to face either Alexander Zverev or Tommy Paul.
And we are just one round away from another potential blockbuster: a semifinal between Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff. But on Day 10, each much first overcome their quarterfinal opponents: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Paula Badosa, respectively.
Coco Gauff (3) vs. Paula Badosa (11) – 11:30am on Rod Laver Arena
Gauff is now 9-0 to start the season, and had won her first 16 sets before dropping one to Belinda Bencic on Sunday. But Coco fought back to easily collect the next two sets by scores of 6-2 and 6-1. The 20-year-old is vying for her second consecutive semifinal in Melbourne, and she’s 4-3 in Major quarterfinals, having won her last three.
This is a third Slam quarterfinal for Badosa, and her second in a row, though she’s yet to advance farther at this level. Like Coco, Paula has also lost just one set to this stage, to 17th-seeded Marta Kostyuk two rounds ago. Also like Coco, Paula’s serve and her backhand are her best strokes, though neither are quite as imposing as the American’s.
Gauff and Badosa have split six previous meetings within the past four years. Coco claimed both of their 2024 matchups, though both went to three sets. Paula has the ability to make Coco’s day quite complicated, but it’s a tough task to try to achieve your first Major semifinal while playing the WTA’s most in-form player of the past several months. Gauff is the favorite on Tuesday.
Tommy Paul (12) vs. Alexander Zverev (2) – Not Before 2:00pm on Rod Laver Arena
Despite coming into this event with a biceps injury, Zverev has not appeared to be hampered by it. He’s only lost one set thus far, in the last round to Ugo Humbert. This is a 14th Slam quarterfinal for Sascha, where he owns a record of 8-5.
Paul only possesses two prior appearances in this round of a Major, and his only semifinal to date came two years ago at this tournament. He’s lost three sets through four rounds, though he easily beat a depleted Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on Sunday, so Tommy should be fully fresh for this contest.
And Paul is actually 2-0 against Zverev, with hard court victories coming five years ago in Acapulco, and three years ago in Indian Wells. But this past year, Sascha has been serving better than ever before, propelling him to the No.2 ranking. Will his serve hold up against Tommy’s strong returning, and his speed around the court? I expect an extended battle between these two on Tuesday afternoon, on what is forecast to be another hot day in Melbourne. With Paul yet to lose to Zverev, and the American having prior Australian Open success, I give him the slight edge.
Aryna Sabalenka (1) vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (27) – 7:00pm on Rod Laver Arena
Sabalenka has steamrolled her way to a ninth Major quarterfinal in as many appearances. She’s won all eight sets she’s played, making her an undefeated 9-0 this season. And Aryna has now taken 31 of her last 32 matches at hard courtsMajors.
In her 17th straight Australian Open, this is Pavlyuchenkova’s fourth quarterfinal, and her ninth Slam quarterfinal overall. She survived a pair of three-setters in her first two rounds, and most recently defeated Olympic silver medalist Donna Vekic in straights on Sunday, though Vekic was struggling with a knee injury during that match. And it’s worth noting Anastasia 1-7 in Major quarterfinals, and 0-3 in Australia.
However, Pavlyuchenkova leads their head-to-head 2-1. She prevailed six years ago in their only hard court meeting, and split two matches with Sabalenka on clay back in 2021. Yet four years later, Aryna is a much improved player. Her power should enable the two-time defending champion to return to the semifinals.
Novak Djokovic (7) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (3) – Last on Rod Laver Arena
Within the past three years, Djokovic and Alcaraz have provided quite an epic rivalry. It got off to a sensational start three years ago in the semifinals of the Madrid Masters, where Carlitos outlasted Novak in a third set tiebreak, after over three-and-half hours of play. And that victory came just one day after Alcaraz defeated his idol, Rafael Nadal, for the first time, and at his home country’s biggest tournament.
A year later at Roland Garros, Carlitos’ body failed him after splitting two competitive sets with Novak, losing both of the last two sets 6-1. So it was rather surprising when just five weeks later, Alcaraz handed Djokovic his first Centre Court loss in a decade, in a Wimbledon final that went nearly five hours. And just six weeks after that, they contested another Masters final that lasted almost four hours, which saw Novak gain a bit of revenge by saving a championship point and winning a final-set tiebreak of his own.
This past year they clashed again in the championship match of Wimbledon, with Carlitos comfortably prevailing in straight sets, just a month after Novak had undergone a minor knee surgery. So a month later at the Paris Olympics, it was Djokovic’s turn to play the spoiler, upsetting Alcaraz in a straight-setter decided by two tiebreaks. Both men were extremely emotional after that final, as Carlitos was devastated by failing to win a gold medal for Spain, while securing the gold medal completed a career-long mission for the proud Serbian.
Overall Djokovic leads Alcaraz 4-3, and 2-0 on hard courts, though this is their first matchup at a hard court Major. Throughout most of his career in the best-of-five format, Novak’s unparalleled endurance has made him the favorite. But now just a few months from turning 38 years of age, that’s no longer the case against 21-year-old Alcaraz, who has taken their last two matches at Slams.
Ahead of this tournament, Carlitos said winning this title was his biggest goal for the entire 2025 season, as it would complete his career Grand Slam. This quarterfinal equals his best result here to date, while this is a 15th Australian Open quarterfinal for Novak, a round in which he is 11-3.
New coach Andy Murray will certainly provide some beneficial advice to the 24-time Major champion. And as Patrick McEnroe highlighted on ESPN, Djokovic will likely be happy this match was scheduled at night, as it would have been tougher to outlast Alcaraz during the heat of the day session. Novak will also draw inspiration from what he feels were insulting comments regarding himself and his country by Tony Jones of Australia’s Channel 9, which has become a well-publicized controversy, with everyone from Elon Musk to the Australian prime minister weighing in.
But in picking a winner, my mind keeps coming back to the best-of-five format, and how much that favors the much-younger body of Alcaraz. And if this match goes the distance, which feels entirely possible, Carlitos is an amazing 12-1 in five-setters, with his only loss coming three years ago at this event to Matteo Berrettini. I favor Alcaraz to defeat Djokovic on Tuesday night, or potentially on Wednesday morning.
Tuesday’s full Order of Play is here.
