The third and final round of round-robin play begins on Thursday.
With one round-robin match to go, all four players in the Nastase Group still have a chance to advance to Saturday’s semifinals. Jannik Sinner currently leads the group with a 2-0 record, while Daniil Medvedev and Taylor Fritz are both 1-1, and Alex de Minaur is 0-2.
Full details on advancement scenarios on Thursday are outlined by the ATP here, as well as in the below chart as per Bjorn R on Twitter:
Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Daniil Medvedev (4) – Not Before 8:30pm
This will be the 15th installment of this rivalry, with all matches taking place within the last five seasons. And their head-to-head is currently split at 7-7. Medvedev claimed their first six meetings, before Sinner claimed their next five. Medvedev then broke the streak with another victory, but Sinner has now taken their last two.
This will also be their sixth encounter of 2024. Of course their biggest matchup was their first of this year, in the championship match of the Australian Open, when Sinner came from two-sets-down to win his first Major. He then crushed Medvedev in the Miami semifinals, dropping just three games. Surprisingly, Daniil’s only victory over Jannik this year came on grass in the Wimbledon quarterfinals, when he won a four-hour five-setter. Sinner then prevailed in the quarterfinals of the US Open, as well as in the quarterfinals of Shanghai.
On an indoor hard court, especially in Italy, the World No.1 is the favorite to take the lead in their head-to-head on Thursday. I’m not really sure what to expect from Medvedev at this point: on Sunday, he played pretty terribly, and acted extremely immaturely, in a straight-set loss to Fritz, citing burnout and a lack of motivation. Yet on Tuesday, he seemed rejuvenated and beat de Minaur in straight sets. But Daniil will likely need to play near-perfect tennis to overcome Jannik on Thursday, and that seems unlikely.
Other Notable Matches on Thursday:
Wesley Koolhof and Nikola Mektic (3) vs. Harri Heliovaara and Henry Patten (7) – Heliovaara and Patten lead the Mike Bryan Group with a 2-0 record, and can guarantee their advancement if they win one set on Thursday. Koolhof and Mektic are 1-1, and even if they win this match in straight sets, they would need some help to advance.
Taylor Fritz (5) vs. Alex de Minaur (7) – De Minaur leads Fritz 6-3 at all levels, and 5-2 on hard courts. The Australian also claimed their last two meetings, which took place last summer in Canada, and at the beginning of this season in the United Cup.
Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos (2) vs. Max Purcell and Jordan Thompson (5) – Purcell and Thompson are 1-1, and can solidify their advancement if they win this match in straight sets. Granollers and Zeballos are 0-2, and would need some help to advance even with a victory on Thursday.
Thursday’s full Order of Play is here.
