I have the impression that Taylor Fritz,
but for his service, hasn’t got the weapons to bother Jannik. He’s weaker in all
domains and his game is predictable, unlike Tiafoe
Published by Ubitennis on 07/09/2024, translated by Kingsley Elliot Kaye
I’m going to make a steadfast prediction, and all Sinner fans can touch wood if they are superstitious: a second Slam really seems within Sinner’s reach. Jannik didn’t play at his best against Jack Draper, who in my opinion played perhaps the two best sets of his young career. I’m sure he will soon be a top 10: he has great talent, he loses more matches than he should simply due to inexperience, he still alternates outstanding shots with mistakes typical of a junior. Yet, Jannik still won in only three sets, dominating the third, and when, in the second set, he had to face a tiebreak, he won it nonchalantly, racing to a 4-0 lead, then 6-1 before taking it 7-3.
Throughout the tournament, Jannik has lost his serve only 11 times. One of these with Draper after he had been the first one to break at 3 games all. He just traded breaks, then. I point out an interesting fact: out of 11 breaks he conceded, 8 were in the first set. In short, Jannik is a bit of a diesel engine, a slow starter, he takes time to get going. But once he does, for his opponents it’s like the bell tolling.
Against Taylor Fritz, world No. 12 with a best ranking of No. 5, but who had never gone beyond the quarterfinals in a Slam despite being 26 years old, Jannik certainly steps out on court as the favourite even if the fiery American public will do everything to support Fritz as much as possible, as Sinner too said in the press conference.
Jannik goes on insisting that tiebreaks are a bit like roulette, but he has been reaping wins at that roulette since the quarterfinals of Halle. Winning 15 out of 16 tiebreaks cannot just be a matter of luck. He won yesterday’s one with Draper. He had won 5 in a row.
The first of the two tiebreaks against Paul in the round of 16 had also been won 7-3. It means winning twice as many points as his opponent. Jannik may as well play down the matter, but if he is No. 1 in the world it is because in the crucial moments he is stronger, more solid than anyone up against him.
He has won 54 out of 59 matches this year and 5 tournaments (Australian Open, Rotterdam, Miami, Halle and Cincinnati). First Italian ever to have reached the semifinals in all four Slams, he is also the first to play a final at the US Open. If he beats Taylor Fritz, he will also be the first Italian to win 2 Slams in the same year. Nicola Pietrangeli won 2, both at Roland Garros, Jannik’s would be in Australia and the USA.
I thought that for Sinner – who in the two head-to-head matches against Fritz, both in Indian Wells, won in 2023, after losing in 2021 – it would be better to play against Fritz rather than Tiafoe.
So I’m not so sorry that Fritz came back after trailing 2 sets to 1 with Tiafoe – because I share the same opinion as Simone Vagnozzi who, asked how he would prepare differently for Jannik’s match against the two Americans who had yet to play, dodged a straightforward answer, but leaked out “We know Fritz well, we know how to deal with him, Tiafoe is more unpredictable.”
I would add that Tiafoe is more capable than Fritz of stirring up the crowd and consequently of charging and exalting himself. He did it even in Vienna, in 2021, when he set up a circus that made even a quiet and poised boy like Jannik lose his bearings.
As I don’t need to be diplomatic like Simone Vagnozzi – to snatch some interesting statement from the whole Sinner team, Jannik included, I mean a statement which could make a captivating headline, you need cannon shots! – I say here that Fritz is definitely inferior to Sinner in power rallying from the baseline. Sinner has a greater depth, a sturdier solidity. Out of 10 rallies he will win 6 or 7. Even coming forward, since Jannik certainly plays better at the net than the handsome American, whose looks are those of an actor.
In all domains of the game Fritz is weaker than Sinner, except in the serve, really excellent from his 6 feet and 5 inches. Last night Tiafoe was unable to return 39% of Fritz’s serves. It is true, however, that Tiafoe does not return as Sinner does. Jannik hit some truly extraordinary returns against his friend Draper, even when the Englishman from Sutton dashed to the net to catch Jannik by surprise.
Overall Jannik does almost everything better than Fritz who, however, immediately after beating his friend Tiafoe, was moved to tears when they reminded him … that 18 years had passed since the last American, Andy Roddick in 2006, reached the final in New York. You can see that he really wants to make his mark in the history of US tennis. I’m sure Taylor will give everything he’s got to beat Jannik. But I don’t think he will succeed. Although in the press conference he said: “I’ve always enjoyed playing him (Jannik). He beat me in Indian Wells a year ago in 3 sets. He strikes, he hits the ball big, he’s like a very strong ball striker, but I feel like I always hit the ball really nice off of his ball. I think I typically play well against him.“
I believe that the Sinner of one year ago in Indian Wells was not even a distant relative of the Sinner of 2024 (and also of the end of 2023). I think Fritz will notice this on Sunday at Arthur Ashe Stadium. I also think that Sinner will play better than against Draper who with his left-handed shots, his forays into the net often unsettled him. Fritz, on the other hand, with his flat shots could really get him well-tuned.
