The women’s semifinals are on Thursday night in New York.
The women’s singles semifinals are 50% American, and we have the potential of an all-American final. However, a Major semifinal is new territory for Americans Emma Navarro and Jessica Pegula, while their opponents Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Muchova have both won Major semifinals. Who will advance to Saturday’s championship match?
Day 11 also hosts the men’s doubles semifinals, as well as the mixed doubles championship match.
Emma Navarro (13) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (2) – 7:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
With Iga Swiatek’s quarterfinal loss on Wednesday evening, Sabalenka is the only Major champion remaining in the women’s singles draw, and became an even bigger favorite to win this title. The Cincinnati champion is on a 10-match winning streak, and has claimed nine of those 10 wins in straight sets. Major semifinals were previously a huge mental hurdle for Aryna, as she lost five of her first six, with the five losses all being tight three-setters. However, she’s now taken her last two, including here a year ago, when Madison Keys even served for the match before Sabalenka came roaring back to prevail in a third-set tiebreak.
Navarro has come out of nowhere since a year ago, when she was ranked outside the top 60 and lost in the first round of this event. But the 23-year-old has collected 52 match wins this season at all levels, and has now eliminated three consecutive seeded players (Kostyuk, Gauff, Badosa). Emma will debut inside the top eight on Monday regardless of this semifinal result.
They have split two meetings this year, with Navarro prevailing in Indian Wells, and Sabalenka prevailing on clay at Roland Garros, so Emma knows she can defeat Aryna on a hard court. If the even-tempered American can apply pressure onto the often-emotional second seed, especially with the help of the New York crowd, an upset on Thursday night is entirely possible. Yet considering Sabalenka’s current form, she’s still the favorite to reach the US Open final for the second straight year.
Jessica Pegula (6) vs. Karolina Muchova – Last on Arthur Ashe Stadium
After losing her first six Major quarterfinals, Pegula finally broke through on Wednesday night, and in a big way, upsetting World No.1 Iga Swiatek in straight sets. It’s been a terrific summer for the Toronto champion, who has now won 14 of her last 15 matches, and hasn’t dropped a set during this fortnight.
But Muchova is also yet to drop a set, despite playing only five tournaments since her semifinal appearance here a year ago due to wrist surgery. Karolina appeared anything but comfortable during her quarterfinal on Wednesday afternoon, rushing off the court multiple times to utilize the facilities, as she was apparently fighting some kind of stomach bug. Hopefully that will have subsided by the time this semifinal commences.
Their only prior encounter took place just a few weeks ago in the second round of Cincinnati, where Pegula came back from a set down to win 6-2 in the third. I expect another close match on Thursday, but on this occasion, I give the slight edge to Muchova. She has been holding serve rather easily throughout this event, and her mix of power and guile will make it tough for Jess to get into a rhythm in this contest. And Karolina has also done something Jess never has: win a Major semifinal.
Other Notable Matches on Thursday:
Taylor Townsend and Donald Young vs. Sara Errani and Andrea Vavassori (3) – Townsend is vying for her second Major title in as many months, while Young hadn’t played a match in nearly a year prior to this tournament, which he has announced will be the last of his career. Errani recently became a Golden Slam champion at the Paris Olympics (winning all four Majors plus Olympic gold). Vavassori was a men’s doubles runner-up this season at both the Australian Open and Roland Garros.
Max Purcell and Jordan Thompson (7) vs. Nathaniel Lammons and Jackson Withrow (13) – Purcell and Thompson are looking to reach their second consecutive Major final, after losing a heartbreaker in the final of Wimbledon. Lammons and Withrow already eliminated three-time defending champions Rajeev Ram and Joe Salisbury.
Marcelo Arevalo and Mate Pavic (4) vs. Kevin Krawietz and Tim Puetz (10) – This semifinal features players who collectively hold many Roland Garros titles in men’s doubles. Arevalo and Pavic won this year’s French Open. Krawietz won the French Open in 2020 and 2021, while Puetz won it in 2023.
Thursday’s full Order of Play is here.
