The round of 16 concludes on Monday in New York.
Following the early exits by Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, Jannik Sinner has become a clear favorite to win his second Major. But on Monday, he plays Tommy Paul, who is one of the ATP’s best all-around athletes, and will have the full backing of the Arthur Ashe Stadium crowd.
However, it’s the WTA singles draw that provides the higher number of intriguing encounters on Day 8. World No.1 Iga Swiatek faces the 16th seed Liudmila Samsonova, while two-time Major finalist Jasmine Paolini takes on the dangerous Karolina Muchova, and Toronto champion Jessica Pegula squares off against the fast-rising Diana Shnaider.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s four most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule. Monday’s play gets underway at 11:00am local time.
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Karolina Muchova vs. Jasmine Paolini (5) – 11:00am on Louis Armstrong Stadium
This should be a tremendous matchup to start the day, between two of the sport’s most stylistic and entertaining players. Paolini’s astounding 2024 season is well-documented at this point, and it just keeps getting more impressive. The 28-year-old Italian has now advanced to the second week at all four Majors, after previously losing in the first or second round of all 16 Majors she had played.
Following her semifinal appearance here a year ago, Muchova didn’t play another match until the end of June due to right wrist surgery. Yet she’s quickly regained her form, reaching a final in July in clay, and advancing through three rounds here without dropping a set. That includes a second round victory over two-time champion Naomi Osaka.
Muchova is 3-0 against Paolini at all levels, though they haven’t played in nearly four years, and Jasmine is of course a much different player in 2024. Paolini will look to dictate with her formidable forehand, while Muchova will seek to utilize her serve and variety to control rallies. And neither are shy about coming to the net to end points. I give the slight edge to Karolina, as she’s extremely hard to defeat when she’s healthy and serving well, and she is an excellent 5-1 in the round of 16 at Majors.
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Diana Shnaider (18) vs. Jessica Pegula (6) – 12:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
After dealing with coaching changes as well as injury during the first half of the season, Pegula has excelled this summer. She successfully defended her WTA 1000 title in Canada, then immediately reached another final in Cincinnati. Now she’s into the fourth round of the Open for the third straight year, and got here without the loss of a set.
Shnaider is one of the breakout players of 2024, with 46 match wins at all levels. She’s also claimed three WTA titles, which came on three different surfaces. The 20-year-old is a recent new addition to the world’s top 20, and this is her best result at a Major, which she accomplished via a trio of straight-set victories.
This is a rematch from the semifinals of Toronto a few weeks ago, when Pegula prevailed 6-4, 6-3. I expect a tight contest on Monday, as Shnaider has only gained more confidence since that encounter. And while a Diana upset would not be shocking, Jess’ experience and tennis IQ should enable her to advance.
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Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Liudmila Samsonova (16) – 7:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
Swiatek is now 58-7 on the year, as she closes in on her third consecutive season with 60+ wins. In typical Iga form, she’s another player who didn’t dropped a set during the first week. But outside of her US Open title run in 2022, she’s 0-2 in the fourth round of this tournament, with losses to Belinda Bencic and Jelena Ostapenko.
This is now a third appearance in the round of 16 at a Major for Samsonova, though she’s yet to advance farther. The 25-year-old is a modest 26-19 in 2024, yet soundly defeated Ashlyn Krueger in the last round by a score of 6-1, 6-1. However, as per Tennis Abstract, Liudmila is just 3-9 in her last 12 matches against top 20 players.
Two of those losses came against Swiatek, who has taken the last four sets they’ve played by scores of 6-1, 6-0, 6-2, and 6-2. And those were all on hard courts. Two years ago in Stuttgart on clay, they contested an over three-hour three-setter, but that also eventually went to Iga. On Monday, the World No.1 is again the favorite, as her return game should neutralize Liudmila’s serving prowess.
Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Tommy Paul (14) – Last an Arthur Ashe Stadium
Sinner is 2-1 against Paul, and they’ve played once on each surface this sport has to offer. Jannik was victorious on hard and clay, while Tommy was victorious on grass. Their most relevant previous meeting would obviously be the hard court one, which was a straight-set win for Sinner last summer in the Toronto semifinals, though that came a day after the American had upset Carlos Alcaraz in three sets, so Paul was naturally a bit deflated for that match.
Sinner is now 51-5 this season, and a ridiculous 31-2 on hard courts, with his only two losses coming in matches where he was bothered by an injury. The Cincinnati champ is on an eight-match winning streak, and after losing his opening set of this fortnight, he’s won his last nine.
Paul is 38-14 on the year, and 18-8 on hard. He is coming off a tough battle in the last round against 22-year-old big-serving Canadian Gabriel Diallo. Tommy is looking to reach his third Major quarterfinal, after doing so at last year’s Australian Open and this year’s Wimbledon.
Sinner is certainly the favorite on Monday night, though I expect a long, grueling match with an assortment of extended rallies from these two great movers and shot-makers. And if Paul can use the late night New York crowd to his advantage, an upset is entirely possible.
Other Notable Matches on Monday:
Jack Draper (25) vs. Tomas Machac – Both men are yet to drop a set through three rounds, and both are playing to reach their first Major quarterfinal. Machac leads Draper 3-0 at all levels, which includes a straight-set win this past May in Geneva on clay.
Nuno Borges vs. Daniil Medvedev (5) – Medvedev arrived in New York on a three-match losing streak, yet has comfortably advanced to this stage. Borges saved three match points in the last round against Jakub Mensik to equal his best result at a Slam. Daniil has beaten Nuno twice this season, including a four-setter in the same round of the Australian Open.
Caroline Wozniacki vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia (22) – This is only the second tournament of the season where Wozniacki has won three matches, and she’s won all three dominantly, though she’s also yet to face a player ranked higher than No.92 in the world. Haddad Maia took out 15th-seeded Anna Kalinskaya in the last round, and is coming off a runner-up appearance the week before the Open in Cleveland. This is their first career meeting.
Alex de Minaur (10) vs. Jordan Thompson – De Minaur leads this Aussie-on-Aussie head-to-head 4-1, with Thompson’s only win coming on grass. Alex is vying for his third consecutive Major quarterfinal, while Jordan is vying for his first.
Monday’s full Order of Play is here.
