The round of 16 begins on Sunday in New York.
Day 7 is headlined by a rematch from the gold medal match at the Paris Olympics, between Qinwen Zheng and Donna Vekic. We also have a Wimbledon rematch from this same round, as defending champion Coco Gauff faces the woman who knocked her out of that event, Emma Navarro.
ATP action features a matchup between top 10 seeds, as Andrey Rublev takes on Grigor Dimitrov. And 2022 runner-up Casper Ruud plays American No.1 Taylor Fritz.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s four most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule. Sunday’s play gets underway at 11:00am local time.
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Andrey Rublev (6) vs. Grigor Dimitrov (9) – 12:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
It’s been an up-and-down year of extremes for Rublev, who has continued to be unable to control his angry outburst on courts, which has clearly hurt his play during some extended periods. But he also won the second Masters 1000 title of his career in Madrid, and made another Masters final just a few weeks ago in Montreal. And while Andrey remains 0-10 in Major quarterfinals, he is a strong 10-3 in the round of 16, and has won nine of his last 10 matches in this round at this level.
Dimitrov has enjoyed some great results across the past 52 weeks, with 50 match wins and his first ATP title since 2017. While he arrived in New York just 1-2 this summer on hard courts, Grigor has not dropped a set through three rounds. This is his best US Open result since he advanced to the semifinals in 2019.
Rublev holds a slight 4-3 edge in their head-to-head, with all seven matches taking place on hard courts. Andrey has also taken three of their last four, dating back five years, with Grigor’s only recent victory coming indoors. On this medium-fast hard court, I favor Rublev to reach his 11th Slam quarterfinal.
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Casper Ruud (8) vs. Taylor Fritz (12) – Not Before 1:00pm on Louis Armstrong Stadium
After having a strong first five months to the year, Ruud struggled this summer on grass and hard courts, though he’s also battled multiple illnesses during that time. This is only his second time advancing this far at the US Open, and the last time he did, Casper went all the way to the championship match. On Friday, he came back from two sets down against Juncheng Shang, dropping just four games within the last three sets.
Fritz has now reached the fourth round or better at all four Majors this season, with two quarterfinal appearances. He has not lost a set to this stage, with a notable win over Matteo Berrettini in the second round, which featured some excellent serving from Taylor, winning 90% of his first serve points, and an even more impressive 87% of his second serve points. But Ruud is a much better returner than Berrettini, and the Norwegian will apply plenty more pressure to Fritz’ service games.
Casper is 2-0 against Taylor, with a victory in a third-set tiebreak at the 2022 ATP Finals, and a four-set victory a few months ago at Roland Garros. But in front of a partisan American crowd on Armstrong Stadium, I like the more in-form Fritz to earn his first win over Ruud.
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Emma Navarro (13) vs. Coco Gauff (3) – Not Before 2:30pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
Earlier this summer at Wimbledon, Navarro simply hit Gauff right off of Centre Court, with a clinical 6-4, 6-3 win. Their only other encounter took place at the very beginning of this year in Auckland, where Coco easily prevailed 6-3, 6-1. The rubber match will be on Sunday afternoon, with Gauff looking to avenge a bit of an embarrassing loss at The Championships, where she spent much of the match whining to her player’s box.
Unfortunately, negative displays such as that have become too common of late from the defending champion, who also lost her composure at both the French Open and the Olympics. But Gauff has been focused on bringing more positive energy to her matches during this past week, which was evident in her come-from-behind win on Friday over Elina Svitolina. Now Coco vies for her eighth Major quarterfinal.
Navarro’s quarterfinal appearance at the last Major was the first of her career, in a stellar season that has featured many firsts, including her first WTA title, and a debut inside the top 15. As impressive as she’s been, I would be a bit surprised if she can pull off another upset over Gauff on Sunday. Emma was able to use the low-bouncing courts at SW19 to her advantage, as Coco prefers the ball a bit higher. That won’t be the case on Ashe Stadium, and I expect Gauff to learn from her Wimbledon loss to Navarro, and also use the crowd to her advantage.
Qinwen Zheng (7) vs. Donna Vekic (24) – Last on Arthur Ashe Stadium
At the Olympics, Qinwen comfortably defeated Vekic 6-2, 6-3 to secure the gold medal for China, making her a national hero back home. They had split two other prior meetings, both on hard courts.
Zheng was in China for further gold medal celebrations as recently as last week, and had to come back from a set down in both of her first two matches. However, she was dominant in the last round, losing just three games to Jule Niemeier, so she seems to have settled into this tournament. Vekic has advanced in a much more straightforward fashion, without dropping a set.
In the rematch between these two big servers and ball strikers, whoever better controls the rallies from the baseline will prevail, which means maintaining a high percentage of first serves, and limiting their unforced errors. And with this being the last match of the evening on Ashe, whichever player better acclimates to the often-distracting late night crowd will greatly benefit. We’ve seen Vekic often become easily agitated on court, so I’m backing Qinwen to achieve another Slam quarterfinal.
Other Notable Matches on Sunday:
Paula Badosa (26) vs. Yafan Wang – Badosa is in the midst of a great summer, winning 13 of her last of her last 15 matches. Yafan eliminated Victoria Azarenka in the last round, to make her debut at this stage of a Major. Five years ago on a hard court in Seoul, Yafan defeated Badosa 6-1, 6-3.
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Brandon Nakashima vs. Alexander Zverev (4) – Zverev played until about 3:00am on Saturday morning, closing out his third round match with Tomas Martin Etcheverry in four sets. Nakashima already upset both Holger Rune and Lorezno Musetti, to equal his best result at a Slam. Sascha is 2-0 against Brandon, though both matches have been tight.
Elise Mertens (33) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (2) – Sabalenka was another late finisher on Saturday morning, and now she faces her good friend and former doubles partner, who eliminated Madison Keys in the last round. Sabalenka has taken seven of their nine meetings, including the last six.
Frances Tiafoe (20) vs. Alexei Popyrin (28) – Tiafoe is vying for his third consecutive US Open quarterfinal, while Popyrin is another player who has now advanced farther at a Major than ever before, following his shocking upset of Novak Djokovic. This is their first career meeting.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
