It’s Semifinal Sunday in Cincinnati, with the singles finals to be played on Monday in this Olympic year.
In a blockbuster semifinal to kick off the day on Sunday, Iga Swiatek faces fellow multi-time Major champion Aryna Sabalenka. The winner will take on either Jessica Pegula or Paula Badosa in Monday’s championship match.
In the men’s singles semifinals, we also have a big matchup between the top seed and the third seed, as Jannik Sinner plays Alexander Zverev. The other semifinal sees Holger Rune square off against Frances Tiafoe.
Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (3) – 11:00am on Center Court
Swiatek earned her WTA-leading 55th win of the season on Saturday, in a tight three-setter over Mirra Andreeva. She is 5-3 in semifinals during 2024. This is Iga’s second consecutive semi in Cincinnati, after losing to Coco Gauff in this round a year ago.
Sabalenka is 37-11 on the year, and has not dropped a set this week. After missing Wimbledon due to a shoulder injury, she’s gone 7-2 this summer on hard courts. Aryna is 4-1 in semifinals this season, but 0-3 in Cincy semis, with losses to Simona Halep, Caroline Garcia, and Karolina Muchova.
Swiatek leads their head-to-head 8-3, and has claimed their last three meetings, dating back to the semifinals of last fall’s WTA Finals. This year, Iga beat Aryna in back-to-back WTA 1000 finals on clay, in Madrid and Rome. Their Madrid final was one of the best matches of 2024, with Swiatek eventually prevailing in a third-set tiebreak. However, on a super-fast hard court in Cincinnati, I give the edge to Sabalenka, as her advantage in power should enable her to prevail.
twitter.com/cincytennis
Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Alexander Zverev (3) – Not Before 3:00pm on Center Court
Sinner is 46-5 on the year, and only needed to play two matches to reach this semifinal, after receiving a walkover from Jordan Thompson on Friday. On Saturday, he avenged a quarterfinal loss from a week ago in Montreal against Andrey Rublev, coming from a set down to win 6-4 in the third. Jannik is 4-3 this year in semifinals, and just 1-2 in semis at Masters 1000 level, as he makes his debut at this stage of the tournament in Cincinnati.
Zverev leads the ATP with 52 wins in 2024, and like Sinner, came back from a set down in Saturday’s quarterfinals, against American Ben Shelton. Sascha is 3-5 this season in semis, though he’s taken three of his last four. He is vying for his second Masters 1000 final of the year, and this is his third semifinal in Cincy in as many appearances, having won the title in 2021.
Zverev has pretty much owned this rivalry to date, with a 4-1 edge. Sinner won their first meeting four years ago at Roland Garros, but the German has taken the last four, most recently prevailing in a fifth set during the fourth round of last year’s US Open, after nearly five hours of play. However, Jannik is a more confident, esteemed player a year later, as he’s taken his game to another level since last fall. In a tough match to pick a winner on Sunday, I still give the slight edge to Zverev based on their history, as well as Sascha’s recent success at this event.
Other Notable Matches on Sunday:
Jessica Pegula (6) vs. Paula Badosa – After winning Toronto last week, Pegula is now on a nine-match win streak, after outlasting Leylah Fernandez on Saturday in an over three-hour three-setter. Badosa is also having a strong summer, winning the title two weeks ago in Washington, and not dropping a set through four matches in Cincy. Jess is 2-0 against Paula.
Frances Tiafoe vs. Holger Rune (15) – Rune is playing to reach his first Masters 1000 final in over a year. Tiafoe is vying for the first of his entire career, and this is only his second Masters semifinal. This is their first career meeting.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
