Third round singles play is scheduled to be completed on Saturday, with only a scattered chance of showers in Paris.
Three years ago in the fourth round of this event, Lorenzo Musetti was up two-sets-to-love against Novak Djokovic, before succumbing to the all-time great in five. And just a year ago, the Italian upset Novak in Monte Carlo. Can Musetti again challenge Djokovic on Saturday?
Day 7 also features several intriguing third round contests in women’s singles. Two-time Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka faces good friend Paula Badosa. US Open champ Bianca Andreescu, playing her first tournament in nearly a full year, takes on Italian No.1 Jasmine Paolini. And in a battle between two of the WTA’s most impressive newcomers, 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva squares off against 22-year-old Peyton Stearns.
Plus, three men’s singles matches from Friday are still to be completed: Ben Shelton vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime, Hubert Hurkacz vs. Denis Shapovalov, and Zizou Bergs vs. Grigor Dimitrov.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s four most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule. Saturday’s play gets underway at 11:00am local time.
Bianca Andreescu vs. Jasmine Paolini (12) – Second on Court Simonne-Mathieu
Prior to this fortnight, Andreescu had not played a match since last August in Montreal. In a career plagued with injuries, a back issue was the latest one to keep her out of competition. Yet Bianca has earned two more-than-solid victories this week, over Sara Sorribes Tormo and the 25th seed, Anna Kalinskaya. She now looks to reach the second week of a Major for the first time since the 2021 US Open, and for only the third time in her career.
28-year-old Paolini is having the best season of her career, highlighted by a career-best fourth round appearance at the last Major, and winning her first WTA 1000 title in Dubai, where she beat six top 40 players. However, her results have disappointed since those milestones in January and February, and Jasmine was just 4-3 on clay coming into this tournament. Paolini is one of the shortest players in the top 100, but she’s quite an aggressive baseline hitter.
In their first career meeting, the Italian should be favored to again reach the round of 16 at a Slam. While Andreescu’s grit should never be underestimated, she is just returning from yet another long injury layoff, and her body is not accustomed to match play. Plus, clay is not Bianca’s best surface, and it’s been over two years since she won three consecutive matches at a clay court event.
Paula Badosa vs. Aryna Sabalenka (2) – Second on Court Philippe-Chatrier
This will be their third meeting within the same amount of months. In Miami, Sabalenka prevailed in straights. In Stuttgart, she again prevailed, but only after Badosa retired at 3-3 in the third. Overall Aryna is 4-2 against Paula, and has claimed their last four meetings.
And Badosa will be hard-pressed to turn that trend around on Saturday. The former World No.2 missed the last half of 2023 due to injury, and arrived in Paris with a losing record on the year. She did however notch three nice wins a few weeks ago in Rome, and this is the only Major where she has achieved a quarterfinal result. Also, she can draw some confidence from how closely she played Sabalenka in their last match.
Aryna is now 27-7 on the year, after losing the finals in both Madrid and Rome to Swiatek. And considering she’s reached the second week in nine of her last 10 Major appearances, Sabalenka is a significant favorite on Saturday afternoon.
Mirra Andreeva vs. Peyton Stearns – Third on Court 7
This should be a fun one between two rising young stars who have already proven themselves to be big match players. Andreeva has now advanced to the third round or better in four of her first five Major appearances, and outlasted two-time Slam champ Victoria Azarenka in three sets late on Thursday night. Her formidable backhand down the line, which she has hyped as her best shot, was on full display during the third set against Vika.
Stearns also pulled off a significant victory in the last round, over 10th-seeded Daria Kasatkina, which happened in straight sets. Her Major breakthrough took place at last summer’s US Open, where she reached the fourth round. This past March in Indian Wells, she was just a point away from upsetting Aryna Sabalenka. Peyton is currently on a seven-match win streak, as just a week ago she achieved her first WTA title in Rabat. And Stearns is a fierce competitor who likes to be aggressive from the baseline.
These players met for the first time earlier this season in Dubai, with Stearns victorious by a score of 6-1 in the third. I expect another tight affair on Day 7, but I give the slight edge to Andreeva to even their budding rivalry, as her weapons are just a bit more imposing than the American’s. And the winner will be the favorite against either Varvara Gracheva or Irina-Camelia Begu in the next round, so both Mirra and Peyton will be feeling the pressure.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (30) – Not Before 8:15pm on Court Philippe-Chatrier
It’s been a bizarre season for Novak Djokovic, and one of the worst of his career to date. It started with Djokovic doing something he hadn’t done in 15 years: losing two matches in Australia, one at the United Cup and the other at the Australian Open. He then went down in defeat in Indian Wells to lucky loser Luca Nardi. On clay, he went just 6-3 prior to this fortnight, with Novak accidentally getting hit in the head with a metal bottle in Rome, clearly impacting his play in the next round. Overall he is just 16-6 on the year, after winning his first two rounds this week in straight sets.
22-year-old Musetti has also unperformed this year, with a record of only 11-14 at tour level. He actually arrived in Paris on a four-match losing streak, which started with a Monte Carlo loss to Djokovic in straight sets. It ended with a retirement due to illness in Rome. Yet like Novak, Lorenzo has not dropped a set to this stage, and he soundly defeated Gael Monfils in straight sets on Thursday evening. Musetti is trying to advance to the round of 16 at Roland Garros for the third time in four years.
Djokovic leads their head-to-head 4-1, with three of those victories coming in straight sets, aside from their aforementioned 2021 French Open matchup, and Musetti’s victory last year in Monte Carlo. Novak is certainly vulnerable to an upset right now, but unfortunately for Italian fans, Lorenzo has been far from his top form this season, so I would be quite surprised to see an upset on this day.
Other Notable Matches on Saturday:
Elise Mertens (25) vs. Elena Rybakina (4) – The third round of Majors has been a bit of a stumbling block for Rybakina: she’s lost in this round the last two years in Paris, and overall is 3-4 in her last seven matches in this round at Majors. At one point, Mertens had a noteworthy streak of reaching the third round at 18 consecutive Majors, and she’s advanced to the fourth round in both of the last two years in Paris. Elena is 4-1 against Elise, but their only meeting on clay went to Mertens, which occurred three years ago in Madrid.
Tomas Machac vs. Daniil Medvedev (5) – Medvedev is looking to reach the second week of Roland Garros for the third time in four years, though he exited in the first round in his other five appearances. In the last round, Machac eliminated the 31st seed, Mariano Navone, in five sets. Two years ago in Indian Wells, Daniil defeated Tomas 6-3, 6-2.
Madison Keys (14) vs. Emma Navarro (22) – This is an all-American matchup between two players who have yet to drop a set, and have split two prior encounters. Keys is on a six-match winning streak, after taking the title last week in Strasbourg, while Navarro arrived in Paris just 3-4 at WTA-level clay court events this season.
Francisco Cerundolo (23) vs. Tommy Paul (14) – Here’s another match between seeded players who have not lost a set, and this one should feature some grueling rallies due to the impressive speed and defense of both. Cerundolo is 3-2 against Paul, and claimed their only meeting on clay, which was just a month ago in Madrid. All five of their previous matchups have gone the distance.
Sascha Zverev (4) vs. Tallon Griekspoor (26) – Zverev followed up his straight-set win over Rafael Nadal with a straight-set win over David Goffin. 27-year-old Griekspoor is vying for his debut in the second week of a Slam. Sascha leads their head-to-head 3-1.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry (28) vs. Casper Ruud (7) – Ruud escaped a five-setter on Thursday evening against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. And he is 2-0 against Etcheverry, which includes a straight-set win this past April in the Barcelona semifinals.
Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.
