Sunday features three championship matches: the finals in men’s singles, men’s doubles, and women’s doubles.
On Sunday in Rome, Sascha Zverev will play for his first Masters 1000 title in over two years, while Nicolas Jarry will play in his first-ever final above ATP 250 level. Zverev leads their head-to-head 4-2, but they are tied at 2-2 on clay. Which man will walk away with the title?
Sascha Zverev (3) vs. Nicolas Jarry (21) – Not Before 5:00pm on Center Court
Zverev is 27-9 this season, and lost only one set on his way to this championship match. That came in the semifinals against another Chilean, Alejandro Tabilo. This is Sascha’s first ATP final since September of last year, and he’s playing for his first Masters 1000 title since 2021 in Cincinnati. Zverev will soon go on trial in his home country of Germany, as he faces charges of domestic abuse.
Just like eventual champion Andrey Rublev in Madrid, Jarry arrived in Rome on a four-match losing streak. And he had never advanced beyond the quarterfinals at a Masters 1000 tournament, so this result is quite surprising. But 28-year-old Jarry is a tall presence (6’7”) who thumps the ball. As per Tennis Channel, he was averaging 89 mph on his forehand during his three-set semifinal victory over Tommy Paul. Nico has claimed a trio of three-setters on the way to the biggest match of his career, most notably upsetting Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals.
Zverev certainly has a huge edge in experience at this level, and in finals. This is his 33rd ATP final, where he holds a record of 21-11. And it’s his 11th Masters 1000 final, where he is 5-5. Jarry has only previously appeared in six finals, all at 250-level, where he is 3-3. But clay is the Chliean’s specialty, as all seven of his career finals have come on this surface.
Yet sometimes experience has a negative impact, particularly when you have suffered some painful losses. Zverev has lost four of his last six Masters 1000 finals, and he is infamously 1-6 in Major semifinals. So he has a lot of recent scar tissue from high-profile matches.
In that way, Jarry may benefit from a lack of experience. While he’ll certainly be nervous on this big occasion, Nico has displayed plenty of confidence and composure against more experienced players throughout this event. And he owns two prior victories over Zverev. But when these two met in another final, five years ago in Geneva, Sascha saved two championship points to prevail. That’s a result that sticks with both players throughout their rivalry.
However, I’m picking Jarry to pull off the upset and win the biggest title of his career on Sunday. Zverev has a history of getting tight and playing more defensively in crucial moments. Jarry’s aggressive mindset can take full advantage of such passive play. And with so many top ATP players currently battling injuries, Zverev will likely feel a lot of pressure to win this title ahead of Roland Garros, especially as the much higher seed on this day.
Other Notable Matches on Sunday:
Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos (1) vs. Marcelo Arevalo and Mate Pavic – The top seeds are playing for their sixth Masters 1000 title as a team, and own a record of 5-1 in finals at this level. Arevalo and Pavic are vying for the first Masters 1000 title of their new partnership for 2024. Both teams are yet to drop a set this fortnight.
Coco Gauff and Erin Routliffe (3) vs. Sara Errani and Jasmine Paolini – This is the first tournament for the team of Gauff and Routliffe, though both have won big doubles titles with other partners. This is the biggest final to date for the Italian team of Errani and Paolini, though Errani won five WTA 1000 doubles titles alongside Roberta Vinci a decade ago, while Paolini won the WTA 1000 event in Dubai earlier this year in singles.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
