The quarterfinals conclude on Wednesday in Melbourne.
Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev are one round away from a rematch of their US Open semifinal. But in Wednesday’s quarterfinals, both have top 10 opposition standing in their way. Alcaraz faces Sascha Zverev, who owns a winning record over Carlitos, while Medvedev faces Hubert Hurkacz, who owns a winning record over Daniil.
The WTA quarterfinals on Day 11 feature four women all vying for their Major semifinal debuts. 19-year-old Linda Noskova, who eliminated World No.1 Iga Swiatek from this tournament, takes on Ukrainian qualifier Dayana Yastremska. And 21-year-old Qinwen Zheng plays Anna Kalinskaya, a girls’ doubles champion eight years ago at this event.
Linda Noskova vs. Dayana Yastremska (Q) – Not Before 12:00pm on Rod Laver Arena
Noskova was previously just 2-5 at Majors ahead of this fortnight, but her talent was displayed outside the Majors in 2023. She earned three top 10 wins last season (Azarenka, Jabeur, Kvitova), two of which came in Australia, and also reached her first two WTA tour finals. After coming back from a set down in the third round to upset Swiatek, Linda only played three games in the fourth round, as sadly Elina Svitolina was forced to retire due to injury.
Yastremska advanced to the third round or better at three Majors in 2019 as a teenager, but until now hadn’t been that far ever since. Her ranking and level never recovered from a doping suspension, which was later reversed. The qualifier has won seven matches to this stage, which includes wins over three seeded players (Vondrousova, Navarro, Azarenka).
This will be their first career meeting, and obviously the biggest match of both players’ careers to date. Noskova’s backhand and variety are her strengths, while Yastremska is more of an aggressive baseliner who looks to control rallies from the back of the court. I give the slight edge to Linda, as her all-court game could bring a lot of errors out of Dayana.
Hubert Hurkacz (9) vs. Daniil Medvedev (3) – Not Before 1:30pm on Rod Laver Arena
Hurkacz is 3-2 against Medvedev, though only 1-2 on hard courts. Their first encounter, three years ago in the fourth round of Wimbledon, was a five-setter spread across two days, with Hubi coming from behind to prevail on the second day of play. Hurkacz also claimed their two most recent meetings, which both came in 2022, in Miami and Halle.
That Wimbledon 2021 victory advanced Hubi to his first Major quarterfinal, where he would upset Roger Federer in what would be Federer’s last singles match of his career. And two-and-a-half years later, Hurkacz is finally back in a Major quarterfinal. He’s dropped three sets to this stage, though outside of Ugo Humbert, all his opponents have been ranked outside the top 100.
Medvedev has lost four sets thus far, as he is yet to play his best tennis this fortnight. But he remains one of the best hard court players the ATP has to offer, and is 6-0 in Major quarterfinals on this surface. So despite his losing record against Hubi, Daniil should be favored to achieve his eighth Major semifinal.
Anna Kalinskaya vs. Qinwen Zheng (12) – 7:15pm on Rod Laver Arena
This is a second consecutive Major quarterfinal for Qinwen, who is on the verge of debuting inside the top 10. She has a big game, and many expect her to compete for Major titles sooner than later, perhaps even later this week. She’s dropped two sets through four matches, and easily won her fourth round contest against Oceane Dodin 6-0, 6-3.
Kalinskaya is another player who had never been beyond the second round of a Slam until now, and was just 4-13 at this level. Tennis Abstract has a great article here breaking down her surprising run, and how her current ranking of No.75 is deceiving due to missing four months of 2023 due to injury. The 25-year-old has also dropped two sets thus far, and came from behind in the third round to defeat US Open champion Sloane Stephens.
Two years ago in Guadalajara on a hard court, Anna claimed their only previous meeting in three sets. But Zheng’s progression since that time is significant, and she’s the player with bigger weapons. Qinwen is the favorite to advance to her first Major semifinal on Wednesday.
Sascha Zverev (6) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (2) – Last on Rod Laver Arena
Zverev leads their head-to-head 4-3 overall, and 3-1 on hard courts. But Alcaraz went 2-1 in their 2023 encounters, which included his first hard court victory over the German, a straight-set win in the US Open quarterfinals. At the end of last season, Sascha defeated Carlitos 6-4 in the third at the ATP Finals.
Like Medvedev, Alcaraz is yet to reach his highest level during this event, and frankly hasn’t done so since last summer. Even so, he’s managed to lose only one set, and comfortably dispatched of an exhausted Miomir Kecmanovic in the last round by a score of 6-4, 6-4, 6-0. Carlitos is playing to reach a fifth Slam semifinal in as many appearances.
Zverev has just barely advanced to this quarterfinal, as he’s already played two fifth-set tiebreaks. He played for over four hours on Monday against Cam Norrie, so he’ll certainly feel less than 100% on Wednesday. He’s vying for his seven Major semifinal, and is 6-4 in quarterfinals at this level.
If Zverev wasn’t coming off such a draining match, I’d be tempted to favor him in this quarterfinal. But spending over two hours longer on court than Alcaraz in the previous round is not good preparation for defeating one of the sport’s fastest and fittest players. And Sascha’s forehand was extremely vulnerable on Monday against Norrie. I see Carlitos moving on to his first semifinal in Melbourne.
Wednesday’s full Order of Play is here.
