Six years ago Roger Federer came back from a knee injury and won seven titles (including two Majors), the very same number as Novak Djokovic’s triumphs in this season. Considering the opponents they had to face, whose was the greater feat?
By Andrea Mastronuzzi
Published originally on Ubitennis.com, translated by Kingsley Elliot Kaye
Michael Jordan was 35 when hewon his last NBA title. Italian goalkeeper Dino Zoff became world champion aged 40. Messi was awarded an eighth Ballon d’Or at 36 after winning the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Manny Pacquiao claimed once again the world welterweight title at 40. And then, featuring among the ageless sports legends, there are tennis players, with Federer and Djokovic at the forefront. They are not alone: Ken Rosewall still stands as the oldest grand slam winner in history (he conquered his fourth Australian Open crown in 1972 at the age of 37 years, one month and one day old) and even Nadal, like the other two members of the Big Three, triumphed in a major shortly after turning 36.
What Roger and Novak achieved in 2017 and 2023 respectively, however, reaches new heights. In fact, these seasons of the two tennis greats were marked almost exclusively by victories, in spite of their age and the far younger age of their rivals. Yet, as proven by the endless debate on the GOAT, ex-aequo first prizes do not go down well. After all, any comparison implies seeking some dissimilarity, particularly when rankings and awards are involved.
It is clear that the comparison between Federer’s 2017 and Djokovic’s 2023 does not fall within the law of identity, according to which two entities are identical if they share the same properties. Indeed the properties of these two memorable seasons are quite different. Therefore the crux of the matter consists in determining the value of such inevitable differences in order to arrive at a conclusion that is as objective as possible. Difficult, perhaps impossible, but that’s exactly why we’re going to try.
The Question of Perception
When attempting to objectify an evaluation, it is essential to reflect on the idea we have of the two seasons, so as to try to abstract from them. When it comes to Djokovic, the age factor is quite overlooked, whereas it is definitely embedded in the mythological aura that accompanies the memories of Federer’s 2017. Indeed Djokovic is the one to blame, if we often forget that he is 36 years old. As exceptional as they are, Nole’s results over the past 12 months have hardly surprised anyone, starting with our director Ubaldo Scanagatta, who in January had prophesied that the Serbian would dominate the tour by winning at least two Majors. The impression is that Djokovic can simply go on winning until he has stimuli, as if his athletic endurance were taken for granted.
Federer’s 2017 is a very different story. The Swiss championwas literally reborn after the knee injury that had forced him to miss much of the previous season. Long stops have that peculiar ability to bring even more attention on a player’s age. Which is why we were brimming over with amazement while watching his performance at the Australian Open, which would be just the beginning of an unforgettable year.
In short, Federer’s 36 years could be perceived as “older” than Nole’s 36 but in this case the law of identity reigns supreme and therefore we cannot be conditioned by a difference in perception.
The Results
There’s no doubt that an analysis of the results is going to be more objective. Yet, subjective interpretations may still seep in, both in contextual terms (for instance when considering the main rivals – as we will see in the next paragraph) and in terms of “measurement”. From a purely numerical point of view, winning one ATP Masters 1000 and two ATP 500 is equivalent to being crowned in a Major (in fact 2000 points are earned in both cases), even though no player in the world would prefer the first option… When it comes to law of identity, it is a matter of fact that Federer and Djokiovic won, in these two legendary seasons, 7 of the 8 finals they played. The win-loss record, as a result, is very similar: 54-5 for Roger and 56-7 for Novak, with a slightly better success rate for the Swiss (91.5 vs 89).
The seven titles Djokovic conquered are three Majors (if he had won four, this article would never have been written), the ATP Finals, the ATP Masters 1000 in Cincinnati and Shanghai and the ATP 250 in Adelaide. As far as majors are concerned, King Roger triumphed in Melbourne and Church Road; then he won three Masters 1000, Indian Wells, Miami and Shanghai, and two ATP 500 (his reigns: Halle and Basel). At first glance, the scales seem to be tipping in Djokovic’s favour: the prestige of three grand slams and the ATP Finals cannot be equalled by Federer’s extra Masters 1000 and two ATP 500. Moreover, in the only major he did not win, Nole reached the final, whereas Federer did not play Roland Garros and was halted in the quarterfinals in New York.
Djokovic ended 2023 as number 1, gaining two positions since the start of the season and earning 11,000 points. Federer, in 2017, had be content with second spot and 9 thousand points, still a remarkable result considering he gained 14 positions throughout the season.
The Rivals
This is likely the thorniest issue. In fact, it involves assessing the average competitiveness level Federer and Djokovic were faced with, focusing particularly on their fiercest rivals. One fact stands out: in 2017 Roger lost only two matches with top 10 players and won 14, whereas this year Nole scored 17 wins but lost on five occasions. Let’s look into the shortlist of their main rivals.
It may come naturally to state that Federer was pitted against the other two Big Three, while Djokovic – as the only survivor – did not have this kind of problem. Yet, if we delve into the matter, things turn out quite differently: 2017 was Nole’s annus horribilis, which even saw him drop out of the top ten, and Roger was left “alone” up against Nadal, whom he beat four times out of four (most famously in the AO final). 2017 was also the year Andy Murray started struggling with his hip. The other most dangerous opponents were Zverev, who won two Masters 1000, Rome and Montreal, (in Canada he defeated Federer in the final), Thiem, Cilic(runner up at Wimbledon), Dimitrov and Wawrinka.
This year, Nole’s main rival was Alcaraz, at least in the period between May and August. In the three Grand Slam finals he won he put away Tsitsipas, Ruud and Medvedev. He was confronted by the most gruelling hurdle in the final part of the season: Jannik Sinner beat him twice in less than two weeks (as well as in the decisive doubles rubber in Davis Cup semifinal).
Comparing rivals is somewhat mind-boggling. However, let’s venture out on a not too risky interpretation: this year Djokovic has taken on rivals whose potential is enormous, but who proved to be not yet mature and experienced enough to bother Nole throughout an entire season. Roger, on the other hand, was able to build up an enviable success rate despite facing not only young players on the launch pad such as Zverev and Thiem but also players who had already made their mark in tennis history and were accustomed to strenuous challenges, Nadal – it goes without saying -, but let’s not forget Wawrinka and Del Potro.
The Final Verdict
After such a torrent of words, it is time to pronounce a verdict. Which was the best season: Federer’s 2017 or Djokovic’s 2023? Or better: which was the best season ever by a tennis player aged over 35?
There’s no point in trying to be diplomatic and avoiding a straightforward answer. So here it is, ready to come under your scrutiny: DJOKOVIC 2023.
Reasons for the verdict: the competitive context was probably at a higher level in 2017 but not to such an extent as to counterbalance the results, which are tipped in favour of Djokovic.
