The third and final round of round-robin play begins on Thursday in Cancun, while all third round matches will be played in Paris, on another busy day in the tennis world.
In a rematch of this past January’s Australian Open final, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will compete on Thursday, with the winner advancing to the semifinals. Also, Jessica Pegula will face Maria Sakkari in a dead rubber, as Pegula has already secured her semifinal spot with a record of 2-0, while Sakkari has been eliminated with a record of 0-2.
Thursday’s schedule in Paris features a blockbuster third round contest between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Sascha Zverev. Plus, Novak Djokovic, Jannik Sinner, Holger Rune, and many others top names will be in action, as the races for the year-end No.1 ranking and ATP Finals qualification continue.
Each day, this preview will analyze the most intriguing matchup from both the WTA Finals and the ATP Paris Masters, while highlighting the other matches on the schedules. Thursday’s play begins at 11:00am local time in Paris, and at 12:30pm local time in Cancun.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (7) vs. Sascha Zverev (10) – Third on Court Central in Paris
Zverev survived a three-and-half hour affair with Ugo Humbert on Wednesday, in a match decided by a third-set tiebreak. What will Sascha have left after that mentally, physically, and emotionally draining contest? Earlier in the day, Tsitsipas ousted Felix-Auger Aliassime in straight sets.
These are the sixth and seventh ranked players in the Race to Turin, and both have likely already accumulated enough points to likely qualify. But a victory on Thursday could cement their status.
They have met 12 times within the past six years, in a rivalry Tsitsipas leads 8-4 overall, yet only 4-3 on hard courts. This is their first matchup in 18 months, and their first on this surface in over two years. Based on their history, as well as the marathon Zverev played just 24 hours prior, Tsitsipas should be favored to be victorious on Thursday.
Aryna Sabalenka (1) vs. Elena Rybakina (4) – Not Before 6:15pm in Cancun
Both players are 1-1 heading into this advancement-deciding matchup, as both defeated Sakkari this week, but lost to Pegula. Rybakina scarcely survived her match against Sakkari: despite winning the first set 6-0, the next two sets were both decided by tiebreakers.
Sabalenka is 4-2 against Rybakina, with half of those six matches taking place this season. In Melbourne, Aryna earned her first Major title by overcoming Elena in the championship match, which went all the way to 6-4 in the third. Sabalenka had also claimed their first three encounters. But since the Australian Open final, Rybakina has notched her first two victories in this rivalry. They came in Indian Wells and Bejing, and were both in straight sets.
In recent years, the WTA Finals have been extremely unpredictable, with many surprise semifinalists and champions. But after the season Sabalenka has put together, especially on hard courts, she’s still my pick to prevail on Thursday and advance.
Other Notable Matches on Thursday:
Jannik Sinner (4) vs. Alex de Minaur (13) – Sinner came back from a set down on Wednesday night to defeat Mackenzie McDonald, extending his winning streak to six, after winning the title in Vienna a week ago. De Minaur still has an outside shot at ATP Finals qualification, but needs a win on Thursday. The bad news for Alex? Jannik has claimed all five of their previous meetings.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Tallon Griekspoor – With Alcaraz eliminated from the tournament, Djokovic has a chance this week to make his lead over Carlos in the race for the year-end No.1 ranking insurmountable. He is 2-0 against Griekspoor, comfortably winning both of their prior meetings in straight sets.
Thursday’s full Order of Play for the WTA Finals is here, and for the ATP Paris Masters is here.
