It’s Championship Sunday in Cincy, featuring the men’s and women’s singles finals, as well as the men’s doubles final.
The day is headlined by a rematch of the epic Wimbledon final from a month ago, where Carlos Alcaraz upset Novak Djokovic in five sets. It’s a blockbuster matchup between the top two players in the world, and the top two favorites to win the US Open, just eight days before the last Major of the year begins.
On the women’s side, another final between the top two seeds was anticipated between Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka. However, Coco Gauff and Karolina Muchova had other plans, upsetting Swiatek and Sabalenka in dramatic three-set semifinals on Saturday. Now on Sunday, either Gauff or Muchova will win the biggest title of their career.
Coco Gauff (7) vs. Karolina Muchova vs. 1:30pm on Center Court
This is a first WTA 1000 final for both players, even though these are the two most recent runners-up at Roland Garros. Gauff is 37-13 on the year, and 10-1 this summer on North American hard courts. She’s been a more confidently aggressive player since adding Pere Riba and Brad Gilbert to her coaching team. Coco is 4-1 in WTA finals, which includes a victory just two weeks ago in Washington, where she defeated Maria Sakkari 6-2, 6-3.
Muchova is 33-11 this season, and will debut inside the top 10 on Monday regardless of Sunday’s result. After reaching the semifinals of the Australian Open in 2021, Karolina spent the next two years battling multiple injuries. Finally healthy in 2023, she made a great run to the final in Paris, which featured a huge comeback victory in the semifinals against Aryna Sabalenka. She then pushed Iga Swiatek to the brink of defeat in the championship match. This is just her fourth WTA final, where she holds a record of 1-2, with her only win coming near four years ago at the Korea Open.
This is the first career meeting between 19-year-old Gauff and 26-year-old Muchova. Coco has spent nearly four less hours on court this week than Karolina, as Coco won all but one of her matches in straight sets, while all but one of Karolina’s matches went three sets. Yet on Sunday, I give the slight edge to Muchova to win her first WTA 1000 title. Defeating Swiatek for the first time in eight tries on Saturday was a huge deal for Gauff, and a letdown on Sunday would only be natural. Plus, Muchova’s variety will likely throw off Gauff’s rhythm, leading to more unforced errors from Coco.
Carlos Alcaraz (1) vs. Novak Djokovic (2) – Not Before 4:30pm on Center Court
Five weeks ago in the Wimbledon final, after nearly five hours of play, Alcaraz handed Djokovic his first loss on Centre Court at SW19 in over a full decade. Novak was a considerable favorite in that match, considering his multi-year winning streak on grass, as well as what happened five weeks prior in Paris. After splitting two competitive sets in the French Open semifinals, Carlitos cramped badly early in the third, allowing Novak to easily secure the last two sets. Their only other previous encounter occurred last May in Madrid on clay, when Alcaraz upset Djokovic in an over three-and-a-half hour three-set semifinal.
Alcaraz is now a stellar 53-5 on the year, and 16-2 on hard courts. This is a fifth Masters 1000 final for the 20-year-old Spaniard, where he is an undefeated 4-0. He is 12-3 in ATP finals, and has won his last five, all in 2023. Carlitos has endured an extremely grueling road to this championship match, with all four of his matches this week going three sets, including Saturday’s semifinal where he even saved a match point against Hubert Hurkacz.
Djokovic is 37-5 this season, and an excellent 19-1 on hard courts, with the only loss coming six months ago in the semis of Dubai to Daniil Medvedev. This is a record-extending 57th Masters final for the 36-year-old Serbian, where he is 38-18. And it’s a mind-boggling 135th career ATP final for Novak, where he is 94-40. By contrast to Alcaraz, Djokovic won all four of his matches this week in straight sets, and even got a mid-match retirement in his opening round against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, spending over four hours less on court this week than Carlitos.
In the final on Sunday, I favor Djokovic to win his 39th Masters 1000 title, and his third in Cincinnati. He will be the much fresher player, and Novak is a man on a mission in his first trip to North America in two years. Plus, he will be laser-focused on avenging his painful loss to Alcaraz at Wimbledon.
Other Notable Matches on Sunday:
Jamie Murray and Michael Venus vs. Maximo Gonzalez and Andres Molteni – This is the men’s doubles championship match, to be played at 12:00pm local time. Murray and Venus are vying for their fourth title of the year, while Gonzalez and Molteni are vying for their fifth.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
