The men’s singles semifinals will be played Friday on Centre Court, featuring three of the top four players in the world.
A year ago, Jannik Sinner was just one set away from upsetting Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon quarterfinals on Centre Court. Now they meet again in Sinner’s first Major semifinal, and Djokovic’s record-tying 46th. Is Jannik ready to claim three sets on Friday, and prevent Novak from procuring his 24th Major title, as well as a calendar-year Grand Slam?
The other men’s singles semifinal is a battle between the two most recent US Open champions: Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev. Both are looking for their first Wimbledon final, and their second Major crown.
Also on the line across the next few days is the World No.1 ranking, as Djokovic will reclaim it from Alcaraz if he advances farther than him.
Jannik Sinner (8) vs. Novak Djokovic (2) – 1:30pm on Centre Court
Sinner is now 37-10 on the year, and 8-2 on grass. He’s dropped only two sets through five matches this fortnight, though he’s also been gifted an extremely kind draw, as Jannik is yet to face a player ranked higher than 79th in the world. After going 0-4 in previous Major quarterfinals, he defeated Roman Safiullin in four sets on Tuesday to achieve this new feat in his young career.
Djokovic is 32-4 this season, and is looking to win his fifth consecutive Wimbledon title, joining Bjorn Borg and Roger Federer as the only men to do so in the Open Era. And Novak hasn’t lost a match on Centre Court since the 2013 championship match against Andy Murray. He’s also lost two sets to this stage, one to Hubert Hurkacz and one to Andrey Rublev.
It’s no wonder Djokovic is bursting with confidence, as after Tuesday’s quarterfinal victory, when asked regarding the younger generation’s efforts to dethrone him, Novak boasted “I know that they want to get a scalp, they want to win… but it ain’t happening.”
While Sinner was up two-sets-to-love on Djokovic a year ago at this event, the result of that match still never really seemed in doubt. Novak has come back so many times from similar deficits at Majors, especially against younger and inexperienced opposition, and he comfortably took the next three sets. As per Tennis Abstract, Djokovic has won 14 of his last 16 matches at Majors after dropping the first set, and two of his last three where he’s dropped the first two sets. Plus, Jannik was trying to break new ground in his career, and predictably tightened up in that big moment.
Their only other previous meeting also went to Djokovic, which was a straight-setter two years ago on clay in Monte Carlo. On Friday, I expect Sinner to thoroughly test Djokovic, as the 21-year-old Italian’s game has matured and evolved considerably over the past year, with an improved serve and even more consistency on his groundstrokes. But of course, Novak remains the favorite to reach his ninth Wimbledon final, as he really doesn’t have a considerable weakness, especially on grass. Plus, he’s 7-0 in his last seven semifinals at The Championships, and 10-0 in his last 10 Major semis overall.
Carlos Alcaraz (1) vs. Daniil Medvedev (3) – Second on Centre Court
This is a rematch from the Indian Wells final this past March, which Alcaraz easily claimed 6-3, 6-2 on a slow-paced hard court. Their only other prior encounter occurred two years ago at this tournament, when Medvedev prevailed easily 6-4, 6-1, 6-2. Though it’s worth noting Alcaraz was only ranked 75th in the world at the time, and was not yet the elite player he is today.
These are the two most winningest players on the ATP tour this season. Medvedev is 46-8, and Alcaraz is 45-4. Daniil lost rather early in both of his grass court leadup events, while Carlitos won at Queen’s Club. Medvedev has lost three sets this fortnight, and Alcaraz has lost two.
Neither man would refer to grass as their best surface, and both are still developing ways to make their games work on the lawns of The All England Club. Medvedev has stubbornly refused to adjust his deep return position for the most part, but finally took a few steps forward while losing to Christopher Eubanks in the quarterfinals, which helped turn that match around. If Daniil insists on staying back against Carlitos on Friday, the young Spaniard can easily take advantage of that with drop shots and net play.
Despite Medvedev’s 4-1 record in Major semifinals, compared to Alcaraz’s record of 1-1, I like Carlitos’ chances of prevailing on Day 12. Daniil’s defensive expertise is less effective on grass, while Alcaraz’s creative and powerful offense are more rewarded.
Friday’s full Order of Play is here.
