The ladies’ singles final will be played on Saturday afternoon, and a first-time Major champion will be crowned.
A year ago, Ons Jabeur achieved her first Major final, and was just a set away from victory. She would reach another final in New York, but lost that one as well. The first several months of 2023 were filled with injury issues for Jabeur, but after defeating four Slam champions this fortnight (Andreescu, Kvitova, Rybakina, Sabalenka), which includes avenging last year’s loss in this same final, Ons has another chance to win her most beloved tournament.
Four years ago, Marketa Vondrousova achieved her first Major final, at just the age of 19. She also advanced to the gold medal match at the Tokyo Olympics, but other than that, the last several years of her career have been filled with injury issues. Yet after defeating four seeded players this fortnight (Kudermetova, Vekic, Bouzkova, Pegula), as well as Elina Svitolina in the semifinals, Vondrousova has another chance to claim her first Slam title.
Also on Saturday, the gentlemen’s doubles championship match will be played, as it’s Wesley Koolhof and Neal Skupski (1) vs. Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos (15). Koolhof and Skupski were finalists at last summer’s US Open, while Granollers and Zeballos have been finalists at two Majors, yet both teams are playing for their first Slam title. These teams met in the quarterfinals of the last Major, with Granollers and Zeballos prevailing in straight sets, though of course that was on clay.
Marketa Vondrousova vs. Ons Jabeur (6) – 2:00pm on Centre Court
Jabeur is 22-9 this season, and has dropped three sets on the way to her third Major final out of the last five. She’s actually come back from a set down in three of her matches, and has endured one of the most challenging paths to a Slam final in recent memory. Ons is a modest 4-7 in tour finals, though she’s won three of her last six.
Vondrousova is 30-10 this season, and has dropped two sets to this stage: one to Marie Bouzkova, and one to Jessica Pegula. The Pegula match was the turning point for Marketa, as she was just one point away from being down 5-1 in the third, before she came storming back to win the last five games. Vondrousova is a meager 1-4 in WTA-level finals, having lost her last four. Her only title came over six years ago in her first final at the age of 17, at a clay court event in Lugano.
They have split four meetings at tour level, and split six meetings overall. Vondrousova claimed both of their matches this season, at the Australian Open and Indian Wells, though Jabeur was at less than 100% physically for both those encounters, as she underwent surgery between those events. Their 2021 and 2022 matches were both on grass, and both went to Jabeur, though Vondrousova was far from her best during those seasons.
In her last two matches, against Rybakina and Sabalenka respectively, Jabeur has struck about twice as many winners as errors. She was even the one dictating play against Rybakina, while her defensive skills became a deciding factor against Sabalenka. Vondrousova’s tennis, while also impressive, has been a bit sloppier, with more errors than winners in almost all six of her matches.
Jabeur is the favorite on paper, but that was the case in last year’s final as well. Will she wilt under that pressure on Saturday after taking out so many big names, many of whom were favored to defeat her? I expect she will learn from her experience in Major finals in 2022, and against a rather inexperienced opponent in matches of this magnitude, Ons will become a Wimbledon champion.
Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.
