In arguably the biggest men’s match of the year to date, the World No.1 faces the 22-time Major champion on Friday in Paris.
Carlos Alcaraz has won his last 12 matches at Majors, and is vying for his second Slam final. Novak Djokovic has won his last 19 matches at Majors, and is vying for his 34th Slam final. And Djokovic is just two wins away from recapturing the World No.1 ranking, and surpassing Rafael Nadal with his 23rd Major singles title. History is in the balance in Friday’s first semifinal.
The second semifinal features Casper Ruud, who is looking to return to the championship match at Roland Garros for the second straight year, and his third Major final out of the last five, and Sascha Zverev, who a year ago in this same round was wheeled off the court in a wheelchair.
Carlos Alcaraz (1) vs. Novak Djokovic (3) – Not Before 2:45pm on Court Philippe-Chatrier
Alcaraz is 35-3 this year, despite missing the Australian Open due to injury. He has dropped one set to this stage. This is Carlitos’ best performance at Roland Garros, after losing in the quarterfinals a year ago to Sascha Zverev in an extended fourth-set tiebreak. A win on Friday would propel him to his sixth final of the year, and ensure he remains the World No.1.
Djokovic is 25-4 this year, despite missing Indian Wells and Miami due to his vaccination status, and missing Madrid due to an elbow injury. He has also dropped only one set to this stage, to Karen Khachanov in the last round. Novak is 22-11 in Major semifinals, and 6-5 in French Open semifinals, winning his last two, and five of his last six.
Their only previous meeting was one of the best matches of 2022. In the semifinals of Madrid, Alcaraz prevailed 6-7(5), 7-5, 7-6(5) after over three-and-a-half hours. And that was just a day after defeating his idol, Rafael Nadal, for the first time.
Best-of-five almost always favors Djokovic, who is one of the sport’s best endurance players of all-time. But 36-year-old Novak has not been fully healthy at any point this season. And 20-year-old Carlitos is one of tennis’ fittest athletes, and has already proven his best-of-five prowess last summer in New York, when he won three consecutive five-setters, including an over five hour one against Jannik Sinner, just to make the final.
Betting against Djokovic, especially with so most history on the line, is a dangerous proposition. This past January in Melbourne, he decimated the field despite being far from 100% physically. But on Friday, I give the slight edge to Alcaraz. He’s been the better and healthier player in 2023, and in this rare instance, best-of-five may not favor Novak. And based on how long it took them to play three sets in Madrid, this could easily turn into a five or six hour contest.
Casper Ruud (4) vs. Sascha Zverev (22) – Not Before 5:30pm on Court Philippe Chatrier
2023 has been a tale of two seasons for Casper Ruud. In the first three months, he was just 5-6, after an exhibition tour with Rafael Nadal shortened his off-season. But Casper is now 16-5 on clay, and into his second French Open semifinal with the loss of three sets thus far.
Zverev was over three hours into his semifinal here a year ago with Nadal, with the second set yet to be completed, when he suffered an awful ankle injury which ended his season. He is 21-14 on the year, and 13-5 on clay. This is a third consecutive French Open semifinal for Sascha, though he’s yet to advance farther. Two years ago, he lost a five-setter to Stefanos Tsitsipas in this round.
Zverev leads their head-to-head 2-1, with all three matches taking place on hard courts at Masters 1000 events. Sascha claimed both of their 2021 meetings in straight sets, (Cincinnati, Bercy), while Casper took their 2022 meeting in three sets (Miami).
In 2023 on clay, Ruud should be favored to reach his second straight Roland Garros final. His defense will be key in stifling Zverev’s offense, which while improving as the season progresses, is still not back to its peak level. And Sascha is just 1-4 in Major semifinals, and has lost five of his last six semifinals overall.
Friday’s full Order of Play is here.