In a rematch on an extremely competitive Australian Open championship match, Aryna Sabalenka plays Elena Rybakina in the women’s singles final on Sunday. And the men’s final features only the second career meeting between two of the ATP’s best players, as Carlos Alcaraz vies to regain the World No.1 Ranking against Daniil Medvedev, who is on a 19-match winning streak.
Elena Rybakina (10) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (2) – 1:00pm on Stadium 1
Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka is now 17-1 in 2023, with her only loss coming at the hands of Barbora Krejcikova in the quarterfinals of Dubai. Sabalenka has only dropped one set at this event, which also came at the hands of Krejcikova. A year after she was plagued by serving issues, her serve is back to being a huge weapon, and Aryna is playing more confident, dominant tennis than ever before.
Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina is now 15-4 on 2023, and her and Sabalenka lead the WTA Race this season. Rybakina has also only dropped one set this fortnight, which also came at the hands of a Czech player (Karolina Muchova). In the semifinals, she dominated Iga Swiatek 6-2, 6-2, defeating the World No.1 for the second time this year.
Sabalenka is an undefeated 4-0 against Rybakina, yet all four of those contests have gone the distance. That includes a 2021 Wimbledon meeting, and of course the Australian Open final, where Aryna prevailed 6-4 in the third. In Melbourne, Sabakenka was able to dictate play between these two big hitters, striking twice as many aces and 20 more winners than Rybakina. But in the set that Elena won, those differentials were much closer, with both players hitting five aces, and Aryna hitting only five more winners, and almost just as many unforced errors.
With this matchup headlining the two biggest events thus far in 2023, we could be looking at the WTA’s new premier rivalry, especially since both players are threats on all surfaces. Based on their history, as well as Sabalenka’s current level, I like Aryna to defeat Elena again on Sunday.
Carlos Alcaraz (1) vs. Daniil Medvedev (5) – Not Before 4:00pm on Stadium 1
Alcaraz is 13-1 on the year, and appears to be fully healthy despite missing the Australian Open due to injury. His only loss came against Cam Norrie in the final of Rio, in a match during which he reaggravated a right leg injury. But he has not lost a set this week, and has spent several less hours on court during this tournament than his opponent on Sunday.
Medvedev is 24-2 on the year, and leads the ATP in match wins. He is the first player to reach four consecutive ATP finals since Andy Murray in 2016. Daniil has advanced to his first-ever Masters 1000 final to occur within the first six months of the calendar year despite an ankle injury, and despite his vocal dislike of the court speed at Indian Wells.
Their only previous encounter occurred two years ago in the second round of Wimbledon, with Medvedev comfortably winning in straight sets. But Alcaraz was not the fully-developed player he is now, and this slower court surface will assumedly favor the speed of the Spaniard, who grew up playing on clay courts and is much more comfortable on slower courts.
This should be a compelling matchup between the two men who cover more of the court than any other player, and consistently flabbergast the opposition by hitting winners from seemingly impossible places. So will Alcaraz regain the No.1 ranking from Novak Djokovic, or will Medvedev extend his winning streak to 20? On this slower-playing hard court, Carlitos should be favored to win his third Masters 1000 title.
