On Wednesday in Melbourne, the men’s and women’s singles quarterfinals conclude.
Nine-time champion Novak Djokovic is just three matches away from tying Rafael Nadal with 22 Major singles titles. And the hamstring injury that bothered him throughout the first week did not seem to impact his play at all on Monday night in a dominant 6-2, 6-1, 6-2 victory over Australia’s Alex de Minaur. In Wednesday’s quarterfinals, Djokovic faces Andrey Rublev, who survived a dramatic five-setter on Monday afternoon against Holger Rune.
The other men’s singles quarterfinal sees two Americans making their debut at this stage of a Slam, as Tommy Paul plays Ben Shelton.
On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Pliskova are one round away from renewing their big-serving rivalry. But in a tournament that has featured plenty of upsets, can Donna Vekic or Magda Linette pull off another one?
Karolina Pliskova (30) vs. Magda Linette – 11:00am on Rod Laver Arena
Reunited with Sascha Bajin as her coach for 2023, and a year after a hand injury forced her to miss this tournament, a fully-healthy Pliskova is back to playing her best tennis. Karolina has not dropped a set through four rounds, and across her last three matches, the WTA’s self-proclaimed “Ace Queen” has struck 28 aces and just eight double faults.
Linette upset fourth-seeded Caroline Garcia in the last round, and also beat two other top 20 seeds during the first week (Kontaveit, Alexandrova). Having never advanced beyond the third round at a Major, 30-year-old Magda is now through to the quarterfinals in her 30th appearance. Going back to the end of October, Linette is now 13-3 on hard courts at all levels, with six wins over top 30 opposition. While Magda does not possess the firepower of Karolina, her consistency and defensive skills can frustrate her more powerful opponents, as it did Garcia on Monday.
Pliskova leads their head-to-head 7-2 at levels, but they’ve split their two recent meetings. At the last Major in New York, Pliskova scarcely survived in a third-set tiebreak, coming back from a 4-1 deficit in the third. But just two months ago in the Billie Jean King Cup, Linette comfortably prevailed 6-4, 6-1. Though in a Slam quarterfinal, and on these fast hard courts in Melbourne, Pliskova must be favored to reach her fifth Slam semifinal.
Aryna Sabalenka (5) vs. Donna Vekic – Not Before 1:00pm on Rod Laver Arena
Sabalenka is an undefeated 8-0 to start the year, and 16-0 in sets. As Adam Addicott outlined here, a year ago Aryna was having so many issues with her serve, she actually worked with a biomechanics specialist, who helped her correct it. And the effort has paid off, as it took four matches for her to reach double-digit double faults this fortnight, compared to a year ago when she was hitting double-digits within most of her matches.
Vekic has also brought in a specialist to help her game, adding Hall of Famer Pam Shriver to her team. After injuries derailed Donna’s career the last few years, she has rediscovered her top form. Since October, she is now 14-2 at all levels, and an undefeated 7-0 to start 2023.
Fifth-seeded Sabalenka would seemingly be a strong favorite. However, she’s 1-5 lifetime against Vekic (including qualifying matches). Aryna’s only victory came four years ago in San Jose. At the Tokyo Olympics two summers ago, Vekic eliminated Sabalenka in a third-set tiebreak, coming back from 4-2 down in the third. And just a few months ago in San Diego, Donna again prevailed in three sets.
However, beating this version of Sabalenka, who is red-hot and brimming with confidence, will be a tall task. And unlike Aryna, who has reached three Major semifinals within the past two years, Vekic has never advanced beyond the quarterfinals at a Slam. I like Sabalenka’s chances of advancing to the Australian Open semifinals.
Ben Shelton vs. Tommy Paul – Not Before 2:30pm on Rod Laver Arena
Prior to this past month, Ben Shelton had never traveled outside the United States. The 20-year-old was a college tennis player, coached by his father and former top 60 player Bryan Shelton. Ben first made a name for himself in the pros in 2022, winning three Challenger titles and upsetting Casper Ruud in Cincinnati. Now in just his second appearance at a Major, he’s reached the quarterfinals, following a five-set victory on Monday over fellow American J.J. Wolf.
Tommy Paul is a 25-year-old American who has taken his career to new heights this past year. Prior to the end of 2021, Paul had never been ranked inside the top 50. But after accumulating 39 wins in 2022, and advancing to the second week of a Major for the first time six months ago at Wimbledon, he is now a top 30 player. Like Ben, this is Tommy’s first Slam quarterfinal, and he defeated two seeded Spaniards to reach this stage (Davidovich Fokina, Bautista Agut).
Shelton’s serving prowess, powerful groundstrokes, and competitive fire have been on full display through four rounds at this event. But the gravity of this occasion, which is brand new territory for the youngster, would assumedly weigh heavy on Ben come Wednesday. The experience and well-rounded game of Paul should be enough to advance Tommy into his first Major semifinal.
Andrey Rublev (5) vs. Novak Djokovic (4) – 7:30pm on Rod Laver Arena
Djokovic seemed to quiet any doubts regarding his condition with his demolition of Alex de Minaur in the last round, his movement no longer as hampered as it was during the first week by his injured hamstring. Despite his injury, he’s dropped only one set through four matches. And the last five times Novak has reached the quarterfinals in Melbourne, he’s gone on to win the title.
Rublev’s win over Holger Rune was an emotionally and physically draining five-setter, during which he saved two match points before eventually winning 11-9 in a fifth-set tiebreak on a net cord winner. But Major quarterfinals have become an enormous stumbling block in Andrey’s career. He is now 0-6 in this round, and he’s lost five of those quarterfinals in straight sets.
Defeating a relatively-healthy all-time great in a Major quarterfinal considering that history would be a huge upset, especially coming off such a long match in the last round. But Rublev has defeated Djokovic before, just last April in Belgrade on clay. Novak has claimed their other two meetings in straight sets, both of which were on hard courts. Djokovic remains a considerable favorite to reach his 10th Australian Open semifinal.
Wednesday’s full Order of Play is here.
