As we enter the second week of the 2023 Australian Open, the remaining men’s field owns 21 Major singles titles, and of course they all belong to Novak Djokovic. The nine-time champion is a huge favorite to tie Rafael Nadal with his 22nd Slam title, but only if his injured hamstring holds up. On Monday, he faces the only Australian left in either singles draw, Alex de Minaur.
Other round of 16 action features tennis’ youth movement, with players like 19-year-old Holger Rune, 20-year-old Ben Shelton, and 17-year-old Linda Fruhvirtova. And in a battle between two of the WTA’s hottest players to start the year, Aryna Sabalenka takes on Belinda Bencic.
Each day this preview will highlight the four most intriguing matchups, while outlining the other notable matches on the schedule. Monday’s play will begin at 11:00am local time.
Aryna Sabalenka (5) vs. Belinda Bencic (12) – 11:00am on Rod Laver Arena
Sabalenka is now 7-0 in 2023, and 14-0 in sets. During the first week of this tournament, she allowed her opponents just over two games per set. And most importantly, she’s struck just seven double faults through three matches, a stark contrast to the beginning of last year, when she was striking double-digit double faults in most of her matches.
Bencic is now 8-1 in 2023, with her only loss coming to World No.1 Iga Swiatek during the United Cup. Like Sabalenka, she is yet to drop a set this fortnight. And Belinda is now being coached by Dmitry Tursunvov, who previously coached Aryna to the top of the game.
Bencic has never been farther than this round in Melbourne, and came into this tournament with a modest 12-9 record at the Australian Open. This is the third consecutive year Sabalenka has reached the fourth round down under, but she’s also yet to go farther, and was 8-5 here before this year.
They have split two previous meetings, both on hard courts. Five years ago in New Haven, Sabalenka won in straights. Four years ago in Dubai, Bencic won in a third set tiebreak. In the rubber match, I give Aryna and her power game the slight edge at this event, despite the valuable coaching knowledge Tursunov can offer to Belinda.
Donna Vekic vs. Linda Fruhvirtova – Second on Margaret Court Arena
Vekic is a former top 20 player and US Open quarterfinalist. But injuries have disrupted the last few years of her career. Yet she’s undefeated to start 2023, having taken all her United Cup matches in straight sets. And Hall of Famer Pam Shriver has joined her coaching team.
Fruhvirtova is one of many Czech teenagers on the rise, alongside her younger sister Brenda. Less than a year ago, Linda was ranked outside the top 300. But in her second appearance in the main draw at a Major, she’s into the second week for the first time, and is on the verge of cracking the top 50.
In their first career meeting, Vekic must be favored. She has a vast experience edge over Fruvirtova, especially at Majors. And Donna has been serving very well, winning 82% of first serve points across her last two matches.
Andrey Rublev (5) vs. Holger Rune (9) – Not Before 2:30pm on Rod Laver Arena
This is a blockbuster fourth round affair between two top 10 seeds. Rublev has only dropped one set to this stage, and is looking to achieve his third quarterfinal in as many Majors. Andrey went 51-20 last season, and 4-0 in finals, though he lost both of his matches in Australia to start this year before this event.
Rune has not dropped a set, and has only been broken four times across the nine sets he’s played. He’s vying for his second Major quarterfinal, after first achieving that feat last year in Paris. Later in the season in that same city, he won his first Masters 1000 title at the Paris Indoors, upsetting Novak Djokovic in a stellar final.
Earlier in that tournament, Rune defeated Rublev 6-4, 7-5 in their only previous meeting. And based on the way the streaky Danish teenager is currently playing, I favor Holger to defeat Andrey again on Monday.
Alex de Minaur vs. Novak Djokovic (7) – 7:00pm on Rod Laver Arena
Djokovic has managed to overcome his hamstring injury to reach the second week of this event for the 15th time. But will his injured leg be able to keep up with the speedy Australian’s excellent court coverage?
De Minaur loves representing his country, especially at this event. This round of 16 appearance equals his best result at his home Slam, which he first achieved a year ago. Alex best Major result was reaching the quarterfinals at the 2020 US Open. In the lead-up to this tournament, he upset Rafael Nadal at the United Cup, winning 7-5 in the third.
In their first career encounter, an injured Djokovic still must be the favorite. Novak is now 34-2 since the start of Wimbledon last summer, and he’s a man on a mission after missing multiple Majors last year due to his vaccination status. But if de Minaur can use his defensive skills to extend points, and to extend Novak out wide, which the injured nine-time champion has been struggling to cover, Alex has a shot to upset another all-time great this month.
Other Notable Matches on Monday:
Magda Linette vs. Caroline Garcia (4) – Garcia came back from a set down to defeat Laura Siegemund in the last round, and is seeking her second consecutive Slam quarterfinal. Linette is into the second week of a Slam for the first time in her career in her 30th time in a Slam main draw, and at the age of 30. Six years ago in Strasbourg, Caroline beat Magda in straight sets.
Karolina Pliskova (30) vs. Shuai Zhang (23) – Pliskova is yet to drop a set, and is 7-0 against Shuai at all levels. Zhang famously was contemplating retirement before 2016 Australian Open, having gone 0-14 in the main draw of Majors. But then she reached the quarterfinals of this event, a feat she repeated three years later at Wimbledon. She also won the women’s doubles title at this tournament in 2019 alongside newly-retired Aussie Sam Stosur.
Ben Shelton vs. J.J. Wolf – This is the first appearance in the fourth round of a Major for both young Americans. For Wolf, it’s only his third time in the main draw at a Major, after previously advancing to the third round of the US Open in 2021 and 2023. A year ago, he was ranked outside the top 200, but will be inside the top 50 after this fortnight. For Shelton, it’s his second time in the main draw at a Major, and his first time traveling outside the United States in his life. A year ago, he was ranked outside the top 500, but would also move into the top 50 with a win on Monday.
Roberto Bautista Agut (24) vs. Tommy Paul – Bautista Agut eliminated an exhausted Andy Murray on Saturday night, and was a quarterfinalist here four years ago, which was also the last time he defeated Murray down under. Paul is vying for his first Major quarterfinal, after also reaching the round of 16 at last July’s Wimbledon. Bautista Agut is 3-1 against Paul, though Tommy took their most recent meeting, just two months ago in Bercy on a hard court.
Monday’s full Order of Play is here.
