After 10 years Kyrgios is again in a Wimbledon final: in 2012 the Australian played and won the junior doubles final, enjoying the victory of his idol Federer the very same year on Center Court; today he will instead take the field to play the final against Djokovic. The Serbian, although showing only flashes of his best tennis, arrived as expected at the final stop. Perhaps the world of esports will have to wait a little longer (Kyrgios had been chosen by Sony as a testimonial for the launch of playstation 5 in Australia and had declared “I think that, once I reach 10 years of career, I will devote myself to video games.”)
But in the real world, has he got more chances to clinch the title than in the virtual world?
According to the betting sites, the favorite is obviously Djokovic, while the odds for Kyrgios are higher than 4:1, a considerable gap for a Grand Slam final. However, according to the Wimbledon power index (a service developed by IBM, as a technological partner), a slight advantage is given to Kyrgios
Ubitennis will leave it to you to decide, from our part we will provide some historical data and a few interpretations.
Head to Head and Big match attitude: these are some of Djokovic’s thoughts after his win against Norrie;
‘He’s a big-match player (refer to Kyrgios). If you see his career, the best tennis he’s played is always against the top guys,” Djokovic said. “That’s why we all respect him because we know what he can come up with. It’s going to be [an] interesting match.”
Kyrgios in a single match can beat anyone, that’s arguably something over everybody agrees. Our gut tells us that Djokovic’s statement is correct since we all know how Kyrgios has been able to beat anyone in the past; also he is one of the few who can show a positive record against Djokovic. But it is worth remembering that both matches date back to the first half of 2017, perhaps the worst period of Djokovic’s career, conditioned by a wrist injury and by a poor focus, that led him to the abandonment of his historic coach Marian Vajda. Since then there have been no more direct clashes, and therefore it will be interesting to see also from a tactical point of view how the match will develop. Finally, a bit of fact-checking: on grass Kyrgios’ record against the top 20 is 6 won and 10 lost.
5th set attitude: Given the ups and downs shown by Djokovic against Sinner and Norrie and the ability of Kyrgios to come up with great tennis peaks, the hypothesis that the match can go to the distance is not so strange. Of course, Djokovic knows how to play the games in the 5th set, the tennis land of fatigue and tension: the Serbian boasts a record of 37 wins and 10 losses in the fifth set, and in particular here at Wimbledon posts an unreal 10-1; the only defeat dates back to 2006 when a still teenager Nole lost to Mario Ancic. In short, if the match were to go to the fifth, we would not bet against the Serbian.
On the other hand, Kyrgios’ career in 5 set matches is much shorter. In the 13 matches that has gone to the distance, he won on 9 occasions; to be fair against not-so-great opponents; Nick managed to get out of the hole of the two sets of disadvantage only 1 time, a feat that Nole has managed 7 times.
Grass court attitude: If we look at Djokovic’s percentages on grass we realize how ridiculously good he is. If we look at the restricted club of players who have won more than 100 matches on grass in the open era, Nole is here:
Grass: Matches Won
1. Roger Federer = 86.9% (192-29)
2. Pete Sampras = 85.71% (90/105)
3. Novak Djokovic = 85.0% (102-18)
Federer and Sampras have built their grass-court status from the serving side, while Djokovic leads the duo when returning, adding a solid performance on serve
Grass: Service Points Won
No 5: Pete Sampras = 72.93%
No. 8: Roger Federer = 72.35%
No. 23: Novak Djokovic = 70.02%
Grass: Return Points Won
No. 19: Novak Djokovic = 39.60%
No. 47: Roger Federer = 38.24%
No. 81: Pete Sampras = 37.14%
Talking about Kyrgios, it is arguably better to concentrate on this tournament, conisdering that he never won a tournament on grass in his career
Tactical key of the match: the Aussie’s serve: in some ways the player’s profile is not so dissimilar to Berrettini’s, and we know how Nole has a superhuman ability to demise big servers. Assuming that Kyrgios will replicate the first serve performance shown in this tournament we could expect 68% of first serve in, with a rate of success of 79%; small problem: Djokovic return. During his career the Serbian was able to display this kind of numebers:
| 1st serve return point won | 2nd serve return point won |
| 31.10% | 53.30% |
If we had to choose a proxy match for tomorrow’s final, maybe we could choose Medvedev – Kyrgios at the 2022 Australian Open; in that match, these were some words from Kyrgios:
“I was landing consistent 220-230kph serves close to the lines, what more can I do??’ “The way I played today I would win against 95% of the tour.”
The feeling is therefore that within each set we should pay attention to the success rate of Kyrgios’ first serve; if the guy from Canberra manages to hold on and maintain the numbers shown during the tournament it is likely that we will have a final worthy of Wimbledon center court; otherwise, if the percentages were to diverge significantly downwards, it is evident that we would see a slaughter. Finally, a side effect of the effectiveness of the first serve is to allow the Australian a plan B against Nole returns on his second serve. If Kyrgios manages to have a high combined ratio of the first serves in and won, the Australian could be tempted to go for it also on second serves. Just make a simple calculation: if the percentage of success on the second serve is lower than 68% * 79% then it is better to try hard and cross your fingers. In our case the threshold would be around 53%, curiously exactly the same number Nick held over the course of the tournament in terms of second serves won. And honestly, if Kyrgios succeeds without going all-in on the second serve, managing to win more than half of the points it would seem like a miracle (also given the statistics of the Serbian).
In the end just a small recap of the past Wimbledon finals, it’s a long time since such a low ranked player reaches the final
| name | season | mean age | winner age | WINNER | rank | LOOSER_ALIAS | loser_rank | score | MEAN_of_FINALIST_RANK |
| Wimbledon | 2021 | 29.7 | 34.11 | N. DJOKOVIC | 1 | M. BERRETTINI | 9 | 6-7 (5) 6-4 6-4 6-3 | 5 |
| Wimbledon | 2019 | 35.00 | 32.11 | N. DJOKOVIC | 1 | R. FEDERER | 3 | 7-6(5) 1-6 7-6(4) 4-6 13-12(3) RE | 2 |
| Wimbledon | 2018 | 31.62 | 31.11 | N. DJOKOVIC | 21 | K. ANDERSON | 8 | 6-2 6-2 7-6(3) | 14.5 |
| Wimbledon | 2017 | 32.33 | 35.90 | R. FEDERER | 5 | M. CILIC | 6 | 6-3 6-1 6-4 | 5.5 |
| Wimbledon | 2016 | 27.31 | 29.12 | A. MURRAY | 2 | M. RAONIC | 7 | 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) | 4.5 |
| Wimbledon | 2015 | 31.00 | 28.10 | N. DJOKOVIC | 1 | R. FEDERER | 2 | 7-6(1) 6-7(10) 6-4 6-3 | 1.5 |
| Wimbledon | 2014 | 29.98 | 27.09 | N. DJOKOVIC | 2 | R. FEDERER | 4 | 6-7(7) 6-4 7-6(4) 5-7 6-4 | 3 |
| Wimbledon | 2013 | 26.10 | 26.11 | A. MURRAY | 2 | N. DJOKOVIC | 1 | 6-4 7-5 6-4 | 1.5 |
| Wimbledon | 2012 | 28.00 | 30.88 | R. FEDERER | 3 | A. MURRAY | 4 | 4-6 7-5 6-3 6-4 | 3.5 |
| Wimbledon | 2011 | 24.56 | 24.08 | N. DJOKOVIC | 2 | R. NADAL | 1 | 6-4 6-1 1-6 6-3 | 1.5 |
| Wimbledon | 2010 | 24.40 | 24.05 | R. NADAL | 1 | T. BERDYCH | 13 | 6-3 7-5 6-4 | 7 |
| Wimbledon | 2009 | 27.34 | 27.87 | R. FEDERER | 2 | A. RODDICK | 6 | 5-7 7-6(6) 7-6(5) 3-6 16-14 | 4 |
| Wimbledon | 2008 | 24.47 | 22.06 | R. NADAL | 2 | R. FEDERER | 1 | 6-4 6-4 6-7(5) 6-7(8) 9-7 | 1.5 |
| Wimbledon | 2007 | 23.47 | 25.88 | R. FEDERER | 1 | R. NADAL | 2 | 7-6(7) 4-6 7-6(3) 2-6 6-2 | 1.5 |
| Wimbledon | 2006 | 22.47 | 24.88 | R. FEDERER | 1 | R. NADAL | 2 | 6-0 7-6(5) 6-7(2) 6-3 | 1.5 |
| Wimbledon | 2005 | 23.34 | 23.87 | R. FEDERER | 1 | A. RODDICK | 4 | 6-2 7-6(2) 6-4 | 2.5 |
| Wimbledon | 2004 | 22.34 | 22.87 | R. FEDERER | 1 | A. RODDICK | 2 | 4-6 7-5 7-6(3) 6-4 | 1.5 |
| Wimbledon | 2003 | 24.25 | 21.87 | R. FEDERER | 5 | M. PHILIPPOUSSIS | 48 | 7-6(5) 6-2 7-6(3) | 26.5 |
| Wimbledon | 2002 | 20.90 | 21.33 | L. HEWITT | 1 | D. NALBANDIAN | 32 | 6-1 6-3 6-2 | 16.5 |
| Wimbledon | 2001 | 29.14 | 29.78 | G. IVANISEVIC | 125 | P. RAFTER | 10 | 6-3 3-6 6-3 2-6 9-7 | 67.5 |
| Wimbledon | 2000 | 28.18 | 28.87 | P. SAMPRAS | 3 | P. RAFTER | 21 | 6-7(10) 7-6(5) 6-4 6-2 | 12 |
| Wimbledon | 1999 | 28.50 | 27.86 | P. SAMPRAS | 1 | A. AGASSI | 4 | 6-3 6-4 7-5 | 2.5 |
| Wimbledon | 1998 | 26.82 | 26.86 | P. SAMPRAS | 1 | G. IVANISEVIC | 25 | 6-7(2) 7-6(9) 6-4 3-6 6-2 | 13 |
| Wimbledon | 1997 | 26.94 | 25.86 | P. SAMPRAS | 1 | C. PIOLINE | 44 | 6-4 6-2 6-4 | 22.5 |
| Wimbledon | 1996 | 25.78 | 24.55 | R. KRAJICEK | 13 | M. WASHINGTON | 20 | 6-3 6-4 6-3 | 16.5 |
| Wimbledon | 1995 | 25.73 | 23.87 | P. SAMPRAS | 2 | B. BECKER | 4 | 6-7(5) 6-2 6-4 6-2 | 3 |
| Wimbledon | 1994 | 22.81 | 22.86 | P. SAMPRAS | 1 | G. IVANISEVIC | 5 | 7-6(2) 7-6(5) 6-0 | 3 |
| Wimbledon | 1993 | 22.35 | 21.86 | P. SAMPRAS | 1 | J. COURIER | 2 | 7-6(3) 7-6(6) 3-6 6-3 | 1.5 |
| Wimbledon | 1992 | 21.46 | 22.15 | A. AGASSI | 14 | G. IVANISEVIC | 8 | 6-7(8) 6-4 6-4 1-6 6-4 | 11 |
| Wimbledon | 1991 | 23.13 | 22.68 | M. STICH | 7 | B. BECKER | 2 | 6-4 7-6(4) 6-4 | 4.5 |
