Rafael Nadal is playing in his 30th Major singles final, where he holds a record of 21-8. Nadal has claimed his last four Slam finals, and seven of his last eight. He is vying for a mind-boggling 14th title at this event, where he is 111-3 overall, and 13-0 in finals. A victory on Sunday will place Rafa two Major titles ahead of both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic, with title No.22.
Casper Ruud is playing in his first Major singles final, and only his 12th tour-level final overall. Ruud is 8-3 in those finals, and has taken seven of his last eight. Prior to this fortnight, he had never advanced beyond the fourth round of a Grand Slam event, where he was only 14-13 lifetime. A victory on Sunday would make Casper the first person to ever defeat Rafael Nadal in the French Open final, a round in which Nadal has never even been pushed to five sets.
Rafael Nadal (5) vs. Casper Ruud (8) – Not Before 3:00pm on Court Philippe Chatrier
It’s the most prolific clay court champion of the last three years against the most prolific of all-time. Over the last three seasons on this surface, no one has won more matches (66) or more titles (7) than Ruud. But in the Open Era on clay, no one has won more titles (62) than Nadal, who is an amazing 473-45 on this surface, winning more than 91% of his matches.
Rafa has endured quite a challenging road to this final. Casper is the fourth consecutive top 10 seed he will face. After overcoming Felix Auger-Aliassime in five sets, Nadal defeated his nemesis Novak Djokovic in the quarters. And his semifinal lasted over three hours before the second set had even concluded, when Sascha Zverev unfortunately suffered a terrible foot injury, forcing him to retire. Yet playing such a grueling match just 48 hours before this final, and in such humid conditions, surely sapped much of Rafa’s energy.
Ruud was also thoroughly tested on his way to this championship contest. Only one of his six victories came in straight sets, and he defeated names like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Hubert Hurkacz, and Marin Cilic. However, unlike Nadal, he did not face any top 10 players. And as per Tennis Abstract, Casper is only 5-16 lifetime against top 10 opposition. Ruud and Nadal spent almost an identical amount of time on court across their first six matches, separated by only six minutes.
Rafa and Casper have never played against each other. As per the ATP, the last first-time meeting in a Major singles final was 14 years ago, when Djokovic faced Tsonga at the 2008 Australian Open. However, Nadal and Ruud have trained and practiced together many times at Rafa’s academy.
Of course, Nadal is the prohibitive favorite to prevail. He is the greatest clay court player of all-time, and is making a case for perhaps being the greatest male player of all-time, period. Even though Rafa is far from 100% after all the tennis he’s played these past two weeks on an injured foot, we’ve watched him will his way through pain for many years now. Ruud will need to avoid falling behind early, and make Nadal doubt if he has the physical capability of winning an extended battle, in order to have any chance. But performing at your very top level in the biggest match of your life, and against Rafael Nadal in a best-of-five match on clay, may feel like an impossible task.
Also on Sunday, it’s Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula (8) vs. Caroline Garcia and Kiki Mladenovic (WC) in the women’s doubles championship match. This will be Gauff’s second final in as many days, coming off her 6-1, 6-3 loss to Iga Swiatek in the women’s singles final. Gauff and Pegula won a doubles title together earlier this year in Qatar. The French team of Garcia and Mladenovic won this title back in 2016. But following a falling out, this is only their second tournament as a team in the past five years.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
