On Saturday, either Ons Jabeur or Jessica Pegula will win the biggest title of their career. It’s a first WTA 1000 final for both players, who were ranked outside the top 75 at the start of last season. Come Monday, both will be in the top 11 or better.
Saturday will also see both men’s singles semifinals decided. Just a day after earning his first win over his idol Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz will try to overcome world No.1 Novak Djokovic. And in a battle of top five players, defending champion Sascha Zverev faces Monte Carlo champ Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Each day, this preview will analyze the two most intriguing matchups, while highlighting other notable matches on the schedule. Saturday’s singles matches get underway at 4:00pm local time, with doubles starting at 1:30pm.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Carlos Alcaraz – Not Before 4:00pm on Manolo Santana Stadium
This will be a quite a test for the 19-year-old Spaniard, as he tries to defeat two of the all-time greats on back-to-back days. It’s reminiscent of what David Nalbandian achieved 15 years ago at this very event, when he took out Nadal, Djokovic, and Federer back-to-back-to-back. But this will also be a test for Djokovic, who has only played 10 matches this year. And he’s never faced the young phenom, who has become one of the ATP’s top players in Novak’s absence. Djokovic lost his only other match against a top 10 player in 2022, when he faced Andrey Rublev in the Belgrade final. But the deciding factor on this day may be the condition of Carlitos’ ankle, as he turned it during the second set on Friday against Nadal. While Alcaraz still prevailed, it’s unknown how the ankle will feel on Saturday. Djokovic gained some valuable match play two weeks ago in Belgrade, and should be the fresher and healthier player, making him the favorite.
Ons Jabeur (8) vs. Jessica Pegula (12) – Not Before 6:30pm on Manolo Santana Stadium
They have split four previous meetings, all on hard courts. Three of those occurred within the past nine months, with Jabeur taking the last two. This past February in Dubai, it was all Ons, as she prevailed 6-3, 6-1. On clay, Jabeur should have a decided advantage, as she owns much more success on this surface than Pegula. Between the last two seasons, Ons is 24-6 on clay, with two runner-up trophies. During the same span, Jess has gone 12-5, with five of those wins coming this fortnight. The American has won her last four matches in straight sets, though notably she’s yet to face a seeded player. Jabeur defeated 11th-seeded Belinda Bencic, as well as an in-form French Open champion in Simona Halep. Both players possess one WTA title in their career. Pegula is 1-2 in finals, while Jabeur is 1-4. But on this surface, the more varied, complex game of the Tunisian should be able to earn Ons her second career title.
Other Notable Matches on Saturday:
Sascha Zverev (2) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (4) – Tsitsipas took out Andrey Rublev on Friday in three, while Zverev overcame Felix Auger-Aliassime in straights. Stefanos has the clear edge in their rivalry, with a record of 7-3 overall, and 3-0 on clay. That includes a comfortable straight-set win last month in Monte Carlo.
Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.