World No.1 Ash Barty has simply demolished all competition this fortnight. She’s won every match in straight sets, dropping 21 games across 12 sets. Barty has averaged just one hour and one minute on court per match, and been broken only once. Over the last few seasons, the Australian has separated herself from all competition, and is on the verge of claiming her third Major singles title. Ash is the first Aussie to reach the Australian Open women’s singles final since 1980, and is vying to become the first Australian winner since 1978.
Just nine months ago, Danielle Collins underwent endometriosis surgery, which involved the removal of a cyst the size of a tennis ball. ESPN has a great profile here, detailing how much pain Collins endured prior to the life-changing procedure. And since surgery, the 28-year-old American is playing the best tennis of her career. After winning back-to-back titles last summer, Danielle has now achieved her first Slam final, at the same event where she was a semifinalist three years ago. She came through two tight three-setters in the middle rounds, and dominated Iga Swiatek in the semifinals.
Also on Saturday, the all-Aussie men’s double championship match, where it’s Matthew Ebden and Max Purcell vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis and Nick Kyrgios (WC). Kyrgios and Kokkinakis have defeated three of the top six seeds, while Ebden and Purcell took out two of the top four seeds.
Ash Barty (1) vs. Danielle Collins (27) – 7:30pm on Rod Laver Arena
This will be their fifth career meeting, and their third straight time playing in Australia. Their first two encounters were on clay, and both went to Barty. Two years ago in Adelaide, Ash prevailed in a third-set tiebreak. And last February in Adelaide, Collins secured her first victory, by a score of 6-3, 6-4.
All evidence supports Barty being considered a prohibitive favorite in this final: her current form, her variety, and her significant edge in experience. Thus far, Ash has struck 35 aces, only nine double faults, and won 83% of first serve points. Her biggest obstacles on this day will be the pressure that comes with vying for her home Slam, as well as the powerful groundstrokes of Collins, especially on the backhand side. During Thursday’s semifinals, Iga Swiatek had no answers for Danielle’s punishing power, with the American breaking six times, and claiming over 50% of receiving points. If Collins can maintain that level in Saturday’s championship match, she has a real chance to prevail. However, doing so against the World No.1’s excellent serving prowess, and in the biggest match of your life, is a daunting task. I like Barty’s chances of becoming a three-time Major singles champion on Saturday.
Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.
