Rafael Nadal is just one win away from a record-breaking 21st Major singles title. He is in a three-way tie with Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic, and this would be the first time Nadal takes the lead. Federer held match points when playing for his 21st three years ago at Wimbledon, but was stopped by Djokovic. Novak had his chance just four months ago in New York, where he was also playing for the elusive Grand Slam, but was stopped by Daniil Medvedev. On Sunday, Medvedev has the opportunity to play spoiler again, and in the process, become the first man in the Open Era to win their second Major at the Major directly following their first title.
Also on Sunday, at 3:00pm local time, it’s the women’s double championship match, with Barbora Krejcikova and Katerina Siniakova (1) vs. Anna Danilina and Beatriz Haddad Maia. The Czech team is vying for their fourth Major as a team, and were finalists here a year ago. This is the first Slam final for both Danilina and Haddad Maia.
Daniil Medvedev (2) vs. Rafael Nadal (6) – 7:30pm on Rod Laver Arena
This is a rematch of the 2019 US Open championship match, when Nadal was up two sets before Medvedev came storming back in his first Major final, with Rafa eventually prevailing 6-4 in the fifth after nearly five hours. A month prior, Nadal had completely dominated Medvedev in their first career meeting at the Canada Masters, by a score of 6-3, 6-0. They’ve also met twice at the ATP Finals, where they have split two tight three-setters.
Nadal has expressed how shocked he is by this run, as he’s somewhat surprised to be playing at all. Undergoing foot surgery several months ago, Rafa wasn’t sure whether he would be able to play again. But since returning, he’s gone 9-0, and has reached his 29th Major final, where he owns a record of 20-8.
In the absence of Djokovic, Medvedev has asserted himself as the sport’s best hard court player. Over the past 12 months, he’s 60-9 on this surface. This is his third consecutive hard court Major final, and his fourth overall.
As Rafa likes to say, players must suffer on court, and both of these men certainly have this fortnight. Nadal described suffering from heat stroke during his five-set quarterfinal against Denis Shapovalov, while Medvedev contested perhaps the most exhausting match of the tournament in his quarterfinal against Felix Auger-Aliassime. However, both men recovered well, and appeared the fresher player in each of their semifinals, where both prevailed in four sets.
Their last three matchups have been close, dramatic affairs, and I expect another one on Sunday, especially with so much history on the line. And above any statistics or strategy, that may be the biggest factor on this day: who will better meet this moment? Medvedev took advantage of how nervous Djokovic was at the US Open to claim his first Major title, but defeating another all-time great at the very next Major is a formidable challenge
With Federer and Djokovic absent, and coming back from foot surgery, 35-year-old Nadal is fully aware of what an important, fleeting opportunity this is to win his 21st Major. He will certainly feel nerves during this match, but he will also cherish the simple fact that he’s able to play, and is competing for another title of any kind. And there has not been a more ferocious competitor in the history of the sport than Rafa. Five years ago, another 35-year-old named Federer returned from a prolonged injury layoff to win the Australian Open. History may repeat itself, and in turn be made, on Sunday in Melbourne.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
