In the bottom half of the women’s singles draw, only nine of the 16 seeded players have survived the first two rounds. And of the players remaining, only two have won a Major (Halep, Swiatek). In the bottom half of the men’s draw, 10 seeds remain, and again only two Slam champs (Medvedev, Cilic). There is plenty of room for new names to make extended runs into the second week of this Major.
Each day, this preview will highlight the most intriguing matchups, while outlining the other notable matches on the schedule. Saturday’s play will begin at 11:00am local time.
Aryna Sabalenka (2) vs. Marketa Vondrousova (31) – Second on Margaret Court Arena
It would usually sound ridiculous to say it’s quite shocking to see the second seed reach the third round, but that’s the case with Sabalenka, who has persevered despite the embarrassing service issues she’s currently enduring. However, Vondrousova will be a considerable step up in competition, as Aryna’s first two opponents were ranked 100th or lower. And Marketa arrives with a lot of confidence. The 2019 Roland Garros runner-up was the Olympic Silver Medalist six months ago in Tokyo, and followed that up by achieving three semifinals between September and October. She’s yet to drop a set this week, which includes a victory over one of the WTA’ fastest rising players, Ludmilla Samsonova. While Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 2-1, which includes a straightforward win last March in Miami, that was well before her serving woes. Through four matches in 2022, Aryna has averaged nearly 18 double faults per match. If that continues on Saturday, Vondrousova will surely take advantage and advance.
Felix Auger-Aliassime (9) vs. Dan Evans (24) – Not Before 5:00pm on John Cain Arena
This is a rematch of the championship match from a warm-up event on these same grounds a year ago. On that day, both men were vying for their first ATP title. Evans met the moment, comfortably winning 6-2, 6-3. For Auger-Aliassime, that’s one of eight finals he’s reached in his career, and he’s yet to even win a set. However, Felix is the much more accomplished player at Majors, having achieved his first quarterfinal in July at Wimbledon, and his first semifinal in September at the US Open. Dan is yet to advance that far at a Slam. The Canadian has complicated matters for himself this week, playing two grueling matches, averaging four hours on court each day. By contrast, Evans received a walkover in the last round, and spent less than two hours winning his opening round in straights. Despite all that, I expect Felix to recover fairly well, and be able to dictate play against the British No.2.
Iga Swiatek (7) vs. Daria Kasatkina (25) – 7:00pm on Margaret Court Arena
This should be a compelling matchup between two aggressive players with plenty of variety and high tennis IQ’s. And they are both in excellent form. They have combined to allow their opponents only 16 games through eight sets thus far. And both accumulated some solid wins heading into this event: Swiatek defeated Leylah Fernandez and Victoria Azarenka, while Kasatkina beat Sofia Kenin and Garbine Muguruza. Their only previous meeting occurred last June on the grass of Eastbourne, with Kasatkina prevailing in three. That was part of a resurgent season for the 24-year-old Russian, who started the year ranked 72nd, but ended it ranked 26th. Yet Daria has not advanced beyond this round of a Major since Wimbledon 2018, while Iga was the only WTA player to reach the fourth round at every Slam last year. And when Swiatek starts dominating as she has this week, it’s extremely challenging to deter her.
Andrey Rublev (5) vs. Marin Cilic (27) – Last on Margaret Court Arena
After competing in an exhibition event last month in Abu Dhabi, Rublev was one of many players to test positive for COVID-19. After quarantining and recovering, he has described how physically spent he was after practicing in the days leading up to this fortnight. But he has been dominant through two rounds, dropping only 13 games across six sets. And the Russian has recently owned his rivalry with Cilic. While Marin claimed their first meeting, which was seven years ago on clay while Andrey was ranked outside the top 200, Rublev has taken the last four. All of them have been on hard courts, and three of them were decided in straight sets. However, since last June, Cilic has been playing his best tennis in years. He won Stuttgart, and reached back-to-back finals in Russia. I expect the 2014 US Open champion to make this a highly competitive affair, yet Rublev’s fire power should enable him to prevail. On what is forecast be another scorching day in Melbourne, his groundstrokes will be even more punishing.
Other Notable Matches on Saturday:
Stefanos Tsitsipas (4) vs. Benoit Paire – Tsitsipas overcame an impressive challenge from Sebastian Baez on Thursday night, while Paire upset Grigor Dimitrov earlier in the day. The Greek is 3-1 against the Frenchman, and has only lost seven games in their last five sets.
Daniil Medvedev (2) vs. Botic van de Zandschulp – This is a rematch from the US Open quarterfinals, where Medvedev downed the Dutch qualifier in four. Medvedev was not pleased with how certain members of the Aussie crowd treated him on Thursday while facing Nick Kyrgios, and I’m curious to see if they continue to bother him on Saturday.
Simona Halep (14) vs. Danka Kovinic – Halep’s set scores thus far have been 6-4, 6-3, 6-2, and 6-0. The 2018 finalist is looking fully healthy after injuries sidetracked her last season. Kovinic upset another Major champion, Emma Raducanu, on Thursday.
Roberto Bautista Agut (15) vs. Taylor Fritz (20) – Bautista Agut lost only four games in the second round. Fritz is yet to lose a set, and soundly defeated fellow American Frances Tiafoe on Thursday. Roberto is 5-1 against Taylor, and has claimed their last three encounters in straight sets.
Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.
