Novak Djokovic is just two matches away from history: his 20th Major title, which would tie him with both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. And his stats compared to the remainder of the field are astounding. 19 Majors to none. 29 Major finals to none. 41 Major semifinals to four. 36 Masters 1000 titles to one. 84 titles to nine. 10-0 Djokovic in their combined head-to-heads.
However, the other three semifinalists all possess the firepower necessary to threaten to world No.1, especially on this surface. And with his 20th Major title in sight, as well as the first calendar Grand Slam in the men’s game since 1969, I would expect Novak to display some nerves sooner rather than later.
Friday’s juniors action will begin at 11:00am local time on the outer courts. The ladies’ doubles semifinals will start at 1:00pm on No.1 Court. The gentlemen’s singles semifinals commence at 1:30pm on Centre Court, followed by the first mixed doubles semifinal.
Matteo Berrettini (7) vs. Hubert Hurkacz (14) – 1:30pm on Centre Court
Their only previous tour-level meeting came at 2019’s Miami Open, with Hurkacz prevailing in straight sets. That’s the same event the 24-year-old from Poland won earlier this year, the biggest title of his career. Hubi would go on to lose his next six matches, and as recently reported by Christopher Clarey of The New York Times, he suffered from COVID-19 shortly after his Miami title run. But since arriving at SW19, he’s been a different player, capping off a five-match win streak with his best win yet: a straight-set upset of his childhood idol, Roger Federer.
Berrettini’s biggest title to date came just a few weeks ago at Queen’s Club, part of the 25-year-old’s 10-0 run on grass this season, during which he’s claimed 25 of 28 sets contested. Other than Djokovic, Matteo is the only semifinalist to have a previous appearance at this level, which occurred two years ago in New York. And his record of 31-6 on the year is far superior to that of Hurkacz, who outside of this event and Miami actually has a losing record this season.
Breaks of serve against either man have been infrequent this fortnight, with four breaks against Hurkacz, and five against Berrettini. Matteo has struck 30 more aces than Hubi, and only two more double faults. And as ESPN highlighted, the Italian has been averaging 80% of returns in play, which could be a deciding factor in a match where breaks of serve will be so pivotal. If Berrettini can maintain service and return stats at those levels, he’s a considerable favorite to reach his first Major final. However, his lack of match play on Centre Court this fortnight is concerning, as compared to Hurkacz who dazzled Centre Court on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Matteo’s last Centre Court appearance came two years ago on Manic Monday, when he was demolished by Roger Federer. But his experience edge over Hubi in big matches, especially in Slam semifinals, may prove crucial.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Denis Shapovalov (10) – Second on Centre Court
Of Novak’s 10 victories against the other semifinalists, six of them have come against Denis. In those six meetings between January of 2019 and February of 2021, the 22-year-old Canadian has managed only two of 15 sets. But their two most recent encounters, which took place at the two most recent ATP Cups, were both tight, high-quality affairs.
Since losing his first set of the tournament to Jack Draper, Djokovic has rattled off 15 straight, with only one going to a tiebreak. Shapovalov has achieved up-and-down results over the last 12 months, but has looked plenty comfortable and confident on the grass of The All England Club. His straight-set wins over Andy Murray and Roberto Bautista Agut were convincing, yet most impressive was his five-set victory over a formidable Karen Khachanov in the quarterfinals.
So does Denis have a shot to pull off the upset? If Shapovalov plays his best, and as if he has nothing to lose, yes. And even moreso if Djokovic plays as if he has to a lot to lose, which he certainly does. Denis’s groundstrokes off both sides rival the speed of any player in the draw, and he’s struck more winners than unforced errors in all his matches thus far. But Djokovic is better than anyone at making his opponents hit extra shots, and uncomfortable ones at that. Novak has claimed his last five semifinals at this event, and 15 of his last 16 at all four Majors. While I expect Shapovalov to make this competitive, Djokovic remains the favorite to reach his seventh Wimbledon final.
Other Notable Matches on Friday:
Elise Mertens and Su-Wei Hsieh (3) vs. Ena Shibahara and Shuko Aoyama (5) – Hsieh and Mertens are both accomplished doubles players with other partners, but are yet to reach the final of any event as a team. Shibahara and Aoyama are on an eight-match win streak after winning the grass court title in Eastbourne, though this is the farthest their partnership has ever advanced at a Major.
Veronika Kudermetova and Elena Vesnina vs. Caroline Dolehide and Storm Sanders – The Russian team took out top seeds Barbora Krejcikova and Katerina Siniakova on Wednesday 9-7 in the third. This is only Dolehide and Sanders’ second event as a team, after reaching the final of Birmingham last month in their debut.
Friday’s full Order of Play is here.
