10 years ago at this event, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova reached her first Major quarterfinal. As a teenager, she was up a set and 4-1 against defending champion Francesca Schiavone, but failed to close out the match, losing 7-5 in the third. The Russian would reach 10 more Slam quarters in both singles and doubles, yet lose every one of them. At the age of 29, she’s reevaluated her career, and rededicated herself to training and achieving bigger accomplishments. This week, on her 12th try, she finally broke through to the semifinals at a Major, and promptly won her semi in straight sets to reach her first Slam final.
Five years ago at this event, Barbora Krejcikova reached her first Major semifinal. That was in women’s doubles, alongside her long-time partner, Katerina Siniakova. They would go on to win this tournament in 2018, the same year they won Wimbledon. That was a year after her coach and inspiration, Wimbledon champion Jana Novotna, sadly passed away from cancer. On Sunday, Krejcikova and Siniakova will play for their third Major title as a team. But this past year, Barbora has made huge strides in singles. Last autumn, she arrived in Paris ranked outside the top 100 in singles, yet reached the second week of a Major for the first time. Eight months later, the 25-year-old saved a match point in an epic semifinal against Maria Sakkari to reach her first Slam final.
Also on Saturday, the men’s doubles championship will be decided, with Frenchmen Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Nicolas Mahut playing for their fifth Major title.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (31) vs. Barbora Krejcikova – 3:00pm on Court Philippe-Chatrier
This will be new territory in multiple ways: not only their first singles championship match at a Major, but also their first career meeting. They have met twice in recent years in doubles, with Krejcikova and her partner Siniakova prevailing both times in straight sets. It took Anastasia a record-breaking 52 Slams to reach her first final, while this is only Barbora’s fifth time in the main draw of singles at a Major. As Christopher Clarey highlighted on Twitter, this will mark the sixth consecutive year the women’s singles champion will be a first-time Slam champ.
Pavlyuchenkova has long been a dangerous draw, as she’s built a reputation for taking out top players. Her victory last week over Aryna Sabalenka was the 37th top 10 win in her career. As per WTA Insider, that’s the most top 10 wins ever by a player who themselves has never been ranked that high. But it’s Krejcikova who has put together the stronger season, with a record of 24-8. Barbora reached the final in Dubai, and is currently on an 11-match win streak, coming off a title run just two weeks ago in Strasbourg. Between singles and doubles, she’s won 16 matches over the last 20 days.
In each of her six victories to this stage, Pavlyuchenkova has avoided having a lower second-serve-points-won percentage than her opponent. Krejcikova did so against five of her six opponents, with the exception being Elina Svitolina, who converted only two of seven break points, and failed to protect her own serve. The percentage of second-serve-points-won should be the key statistic to track during this match.
That would seem to favor Pavlyuchenkova, who is the stronger and more consistent baseline player. But this match will likely come down to who better manages the emotions of this momentous occasion. In her 15th year of Grand Slam competition, will Anastasia be motivated or overwhelmed by the knowledge of how rare an opportunity this can be? Based on the composed way she has handled herself through six rounds, it feels as if Pavlyuchenkova is ready to capture the moment, and win her first Major title.
Other Notable Matches on Saturday:
Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Nicolas Mahut (6) vs. Alexander Bublik and Andrey Golubev – The French team were champions here three years ago, and have narrowly escaped defeat four times this fortnight, most recently saving three match points in the semifinals against Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah. Bublik and Golubev have defeated two seeded teams in just the fourth tournament of their partnership.
Saturday’s full schedule is here.
