The day’s most marquee matchup features two multi-time Major champions colliding.
Serena Williams is three wins away from her 24th Slam title, but the WTA’s most consistent performer of the last seven years stands in her way today. No woman has won more Majors over the last three years than Naomi Osaki, though she now faces one of the sport’s most unique and frustrating opponents. On the men’s side, Novak Djokovic seems to be relatively healthy despite an injury scare two rounds ago. On Tuesday, he takes on a man who was just two points from winning the last hard court Slam. Grigor Dimitrov upset the champion of that last hard court Slam in the last round, and will play the first man in 25 years to make the quarterfinals in his Grand Slam debut.
Each day during this fortnight, this preview will analyze the day’s most prominent matches, and note the other intriguing matchups on the schedule. Tuesday’s singles quarterfinals will begin at 12:30pm local time on Rod Laver Arena.
Naomi Osaka (3) vs. Su-Wei Hsieh
Osaka is coming off a thrilling fourth round contest on Sunday, when she saved two match points in a comeback victory over Garbine Muguruza. Su-Wei is the oldest player in the Open Era to make her debut in a Major quarterfinal. Naomi didn’t seem all that excited upon hearing the news of facing Hsieh, as her unorthodox style and strategy has driven many an opponent crazy. And Su-Wei owns a previous victory over Osaka, which came two years ago in Miami on a hard court. However, that was during a span when Naomi was slumping, as she had just split with her coach, and was adjusting to the expectations that come with being a Major champion. And though most of their other four prior meetings have been close, Naomi has claimed them all. Osaka will be well aware of the adjustments she needs to make in her game against Su-Wei, and should play freely after escaping defeat in the last round.
Grigor Dimitrov (18) vs. Aslan Karatsev (Q)
While Dominic Thiem was obviously at less than 100% on Sunday, Dimitrov played extremely well to dismiss him comfortably. Grigor was also the beneficiary of a retirement the round before from Pablo Carreno Busta, and is yet to drop a set. This run feels similar to his semifinal run at the 2019 US Open, when the draw opened up a bit for the 29-year-old Bulgarian, and he played some stellar tennis at crucial moments. Karatsev is the most shocking men’s quarterfinalist in recent memory. The 27-year-old Russian had never even played in the qualifying event of a Major prior to last fall’s Roland Garros. At this month’s ATP Cup, teammate Daniil Medvedev referred to Karatsev as their “secret weapon.” Aslan has played the best tennis of his career since the tour restart last summer, and won 18 of 20 Challenger matches to close out 2020. Karatsev can just bludgeon the ball, and has served extremely well. He’s averaged 10 aces per match, and was only broken twice through his first three rounds. Also, he’s shown he’s a fighter, as he came back from two sets down against a tight Felix Auger-Aliassime in the round of 16. Like Felix, we’ve often seen Grigor play tentatively in big moments, so that’s a concern today against a man he’s never faced before and likely knows little about. And Dimitrov often doesn’t excel when he is expected to win. But Grigor will still be the favorite against a player who is in completely uncharted territory.
Simona Halep (2) vs. Serena Williams (10)
This is the first time they will meet since Halep played the match of her life, dominating Serena in the championship match of Wimbledon in 2019. That’s only one of two victories for Simona in this rivalry, as Serena has owned this rivalry 9-2. They played at this event two years ago, with Serena prevailing in three sets. Both women fought their way through grueling encounters on Sunday: Halep against Iga Swiatek, and Serena against Aryna Sabalenka. After that match with Sabalenka, Serena spoke with ESPN’s Rennae Stubbs about how she’ll need to improve her first serve percentage going forward. In that match, it was only 52%, and dipped all the way down to 36% in the second set. Halep is a great returner who would love to see a high number of second serves coming her way. But this match will be on Serena’s racquet, as her power should be able to decide the outcome on these fast-playing courts.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Sascha Zverev (6)
Djokovic leads their head-to-head 5-2, which includes a close three-set win just two weeks ago on this same court during the ATP Cup. Novak was not sure if he’d be able to play two days ago after an injury to his right side, the details of which he has chosen not to disclose. But the eight-time champion looked pretty healthy during a four-set win over Milos Raonic on Sunday night. Zverev has been quietly advancing through this draw, winning his last 12 sets after dropping the first set of his opening round. Sascha may prefer the lack of attention this fortnight, as ex-girlfriend Olga Sharypova recently made allegations of domestic abuse against Zverev, allegations which Sascha has denied. He also had a recent legal dispute with his former agent, and has faced criticism of his pandemic-related decision making. His tennis hasn’t been impacted thus far, though this will be his first high-profile matchup of the fortnight. His second serve woes have subsided, at least for now. Through four rounds, Zverev has struck 65 aces and only 16 double faults. He’ll need to continue serving like that to have a chance against the best returner in the game. If he does, Sascha has a definitive chance to win, especially with Novak fighting an injury. But on a court where Djokovic feels right at home, the 17-time Major champion remains the favorite to reach a ninth Australian Open semifinal.
Other Notable Matches on Day 9:
In the women’s doubles quarterfinals, 2020 Strasbourg champions Nicole Melichar and Demi Schuurs (4) vs. Coco Gauff and Katy McNally, who won two WTA titles in 2019.
In another quarterfinal, Elise Mertens and Aryna Sabalenka (2) vs. Shuko Aoyama and Ena Shibahara (7). Mertens and Sabalenka both lost in the fourth round of singles, but won the 2019 US Open as a team. Aoyama and Shibahara are yet to lose this year, picking up two titles thus far.
And in a men’s doubles quarterfinal, Nikola Mektic and Mate Pavic (2) vs. Nicolas Mahut and Pierre-Hugues Herbert (8). Mektic and Pavic are undefeated since teaming up this season, with two titles. Mahut and Herbert were champions here two years ago, which completed their career Grand Slam.
Tuesday’s full order of play is here.
