And will eight-time champion Novak Djokovic be able to play after suffering an injury on Friday?
Rod Laver Arena will be the court to watch on Day 7, featuring seven Major singles champions who own a total of 49 Slam titles. That of course assumes Novak Djokovic takes the court on Sunday, as he felt as if he tore his oblique muscle during a five-setter against Taylor Fritz in the third round. And three other fourth round singles matches on Margaret Court Arena may also prove to be quite compelling.
Each day during this fortnight, this preview will analyze the day’s most prominent matches, and note the other intriguing matchups on the schedule. Sunday’s play will begin at 11:00am local time.
Naomi Osaka (3) vs. Garbine Muguruza (14) – 11:00am on RLA
This will be the first career meeting between the 2019 champion and the 2020 runner-up. Osaka has now won her last 17 completed matches, while Muguruza has claimed 15 of her last 19. Neither woman has dropped a set this week, as both have dominated all comers. Osaka has allowed her opponents just 13 games, while Muguruza has allowed only 10. This has the feel of a Major final, but in reality it’s a fourth round encounter. Through three rounds, Osaka has won 80% of first serve points, and only been broken twice. Comparatively, Muguruza has won 74% on her first serve, and been broken just once. Naomi is the slightly better server, and the better mover, though this match will likely be decided by slim margins. It may come down to who is stronger mentally at the crucial moments. I can’t wait to see which champion that is.
Aryna Sabalenka (7) vs. Serena Williams (10) – Not Before 1:00pm on RLA
This is another first-time matchup between two extremely powerful women who love to bludgeon the ball. And just like Osaka and Muguruza, neither of these women have lost a set to this stage. Sabalenka has prevailed 18 of her last 19 matches, with three consecutive titles before arriving in Melbourne. Serena is 15-3 since the tour restart last summer. The 23-time Major singles champion played an ugly first set two days ago against Anastasia Potapova, but escaped it and comfortably won in straights. Serena’s second serve points won is an important stat to keep an eye on. In her first two matches, she won 57%, but that dropped dramatically to 32% in her third round. Serena needs to get that back up above 50% against Sabalenka, which is where Aryna’s percentage has averaged. And notably, Sabalenka hasn’t allowed any of her opponents to reach 50% of second serve return points won. It would also help Serena to get a higher percentage of first serves in, as she’s at 60% through three rounds. Sabalenka is an extremely aggressive returner and will look to control Serena’s second serve points from the start. But Serena is excellent at elevating her game in big moments, so I expect her to be extremely sharp today. And Sabalenka could easily be pretty tight in her first match against the GOAT, and as she tries to reach her first Slam quarterfinal. That’s advantage, Serena.
Dominic Thiem (3) vs. Grigor Dimitrov (18) – Not Before 3:00pm on RLA
On Friday, Thiem played 42 more games than Dimitrov. Dominic of course took part in a thrilling five-setter with Nick Kyrgios, coming back from two-sets-to-love down. Grigor was up 6-0, 2-0 when Pablo Carreno Busta retired due to injury. But Thiem actually spent less than three-and-a-half hours on court, so he should be relatively fresh on Sunday. Dimitrov has been quietly moving through this draw, without dropping a set. And Grigor leads their head-to-head 3-2, and 3-1 on hard courts. Dimitrov’s last two victories came on fast-playing hard courts, most recently at the 2019 Paris Masters. But Thiem’s confidence on this surface has increased substantially over the last few seasons, and he’s still the favorite in this battle of one-handed backhands.
Simona Halep (2) vs. Iga Swiatek (15) – Not Before 7:00pm on RLA
Four months in the fourth round of Roland Garros, Swiatek crushed Halep 6-1, 6-2 in just 68 minutes. But in their only other previous encounter, a year prior in the same round of the same event, Halep walloped Swiatek 6-1, 6-0 in just 45 minutes. I suspect this meeting will be much more competitive. After Simona escaped near-defeat in the second round against Ajla Tomljanovic, she bounced back strongly, allowing Veronika Kudermetova only four games on Friday. Meanwhile, reigning French Open champ Swiatek has comfortably won her last 10 matches at Majors in straight sets, with no opponent winning more than four games in a set. Surely Halep will arrive on court with some revised tactics to counter Swiatek’s recent brilliance, as Simona has one of the best coaches in the sport, Darren Cahill. But Iga has spoken of how her work with a full-time sports psychologist has helped her enormously, and her mentality on court is usually much more positive than Halep’s. Based on Swiatek’s recent level of play, I’m not betting against her.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Milos Raonic (14) – Last on RLA
If Djokovic is able to play, he couldn’t ask for a much more favorable round of 16 matchup. He’s 11-0 lifetime against Raonic, taking 26 of 29 sets. And the rallies shouldn’t be quite as grueling against the big-serving Canadian as they would against many other opponents. Milos has reached the quarterfinals or better in Melbourne five of the last six years, but this matchup has been a terrible one for him. So this match will come down to just how hampered Novak is by his injury.
Other Notable Matches on Day 7:
2019 Roland Garros finalist Marketa Vondrousova (19) vs. Su-Wei Hsieh, who is 0-3 lifetime in the fourth round of Majors, but claimed her only previous meeting with Vondrousova last month in Abu Dhabi 7-6 in the third. Vondrousova’s run to the French Open final is the only time she’s advanced beyond this round at a Slam.
20-year-old Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime (20) vs. Aslan Karatsev, a 27-year-old Russian who had three career ATP match wins prior to this week. He’s made a shocking run to the round of 16 without dropping a set, and upset Diego Schwartman in the last round. Felix defeated close friend Denis Shapovalov on Friday, and is vying for his first Major quarterfinal.
2020 US Open finalist Sascha Zverev (6) vs. Dusan Lajovic (23), who is into the fourth round at a Slam for the first time in nearly seven years. Their only two previous encounters occurred in consecutive years at Roland Garros, with Zverev winning both matches 6-2 in the fifth.
Sunday’s full order of play is here.
