Defending champion Sofia Kenin, as well as the fifth and sixth seeds Elina Svitolina and Karolina Pliskova, will all face challenging second round opposition.
However, top-seeded Ash Barty will be a heavy favorite, especially after how excellently she played on Tuesday. In the men’s draw, Rafael Nadal is just six matches away from winning a record-breaking 21st Major title, and should advance comfortably today despite his lower back issues. Young Australian talent will be involved in the day’s most appetizing men’s matchups, with Alex de Minaur and Thanasi Kokkinakis taking on two of the ATP’s flashiest shot-makers.
Each day during this fortnight, this preview will analyze the day’s most prominent matches, and note the other intriguing matchups on the schedule. Thursday’s play will begin at 11:00am local time.
Karolina Pliskova (6) vs. Danielle Collins – 11:00am on RLA
Just last week in the Yarra Valley Classic, Collins took out Pliskova in two tiebreak sets. That was the only previous meeting between these two Australian Open semifinalists from 2019. For Pliskova, that was her seventh time reaching the quarterfinals or better out of the last 10 Majors. But over the past two years, Karolina hasn’t done so once. In the offseason, she hired Sascha Bajin as her coach, who formerly worked with Serena Williams and Naomi Osaka. Collins advanced to the quarters at the last Slam in Paris, defeating Garbine Muguruza along the way. Both women have collected a lot of wins down under to start the last few seasons. Collins’ level can fluctuate from week-to-week, but she’s hard to stop once she picks up momentum within a tournament. And based on last week’s result, I’d call the American a slight favorite on Thursday.
Sofia Kenin (4) vs. Kaia Kanepi – Not Before 1:00pm on MCA
Kanepi spent the fall on the ITF circuit, but accumulated 15 match wins and three titles on both clay and hard courts. And she earned four wins last week, reaching the final of the Gippsland Trophy, her first final since 2013. Kaia has made a career out of upsetting players at Majors, and has reached six Slam quarterfinals. 22-year-old Kenin has played in two of the last three Major finals, but is yet to play her best tennis in 2021. She lost in the quarters of Abu Dhabi to Maria Sakkari, dropping 12 of the last 14 games. And Kenin was walloped last week by Garbine Muguruza 6-2, 6-2. This match is a definite upset alert, though Kenin has exhibited how good she is at finding ways to win even when her best tennis escapes her.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (5) vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis (WC) – Third on RLA
Kokkinakis’ career has been quite challenging to say the least. The 24-year-old has experienced multiple serious injuries, so many that he even considered retiring from the sport. The ATP has a detailed outline of his struggles here. Prior to Tuesday, it had been two years since he won an ATP-level match, and six years since prevailing at his home Slam. It’s no wonder he got emotional two days ago after a decisive 6-4, 6-1, 6-1 victory. But is Thanasi ready to challenge a top five player on his country’s biggest court? That’s a big ask for a man who has only played two matches since September of 2019. And especially considering Tsitsipas only allowed Gilles Simon four games on Tuesday. But this should be a fun one to watch, with a raucous Aussie crowd inside Rod Laver Arena.
Elina Svitolina (5) vs. Coco Gauff – Not Before 7:00pm on RLA
Over the past two years, Gauff has upset Venus Williams, Naomi Osaka, and Johanna Konta at Majors. But the 16-year-old experienced a bit of the sophomore slump coming out of the tour shutdown last year, and has struggled with her serve. She looked sharp on Tuesday though, advancing in straight sets. Svitolina did as well, though she was thoroughly tested in a two-hour two-setter by Marie Bouzkova. The Ukranian has reached the third round of this event in six out of the last seven years. Elina can often become too defensive on court, allowing her opponents to dictate play. If Coco can serve well and fully utilize her power on these fast courts, this could be her next big moment at a Slam.
Alex de Minaur (21) vs. Pablo Cuevas – Not Before 7:00pm on MCA
These are two of the quickest men in the sport, which should result in some incredible rallies. Cuevas has made a name for himself by striking highlight reel-worthy shots each year. He also drew rave reviews for his highly-entertaining social media posts during the hard quarantine in Melbourne. But the 35-year-old from Uruguay excels on clay, and has never been beyond the second round of a hard court Major. Last year, Pablo went just 2-7 on this surface. Meanwhile 21-year-old de Minaur already nabbed a hard court title to start the year. The Australian No.1 should be able to advance without too much trouble, to the delight of the night session crowd.
Other Notable Matches on Day 4:
2009 champion Rafael Nadal (2) vs. Michael Mmoh (Q), a 23-year-old American who survived a four-hour five-setter two days ago against Viktor Troicki. Nadal easily prevailed on Tuesday, but spoke after the match of how his lower back injury is negatively impacting his play.
In a battle of Australians, Ash Barty (1) vs. Daria Gavrilova (WC), a former top 20 player who is fighting her way back from serious foot issues. On Tuesday, Barty required only 44 minutes in a 6-0, 6-0 drubbing of Danka Kovinic.
Daniil Medvedev (4) vs. Roberto Carballes Baena. Medvedev is on a 15-match winning streak, while the 27-year-old Spaniard only has 10 career ATP wins on hard courts.
Andrey Rublev (7) vs. Thiago Monteiro. Since the start of 2020, Rublev is 46-10, though he lost his only previous encounter with the 26-year-old Brazilian, in 2019 on clay.
Belinda Bencic (11) vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova. Bencic is 3-2 against the two-time Major champion. They played twice last February, and split those two hard court meetings.
Thursday’s full order of play is here.