With fans allowed back onto the grounds of Melbourne Park on Thursday, and Rod Laver Arena at 50% capacity, this should be an exciting day of tennis.
Serena Williams and Naomi Osaka took part in one of the most controversial matches in recent history at the 2018 US Open. The winner today will be the favorite in Saturday’s championship match, as Serena vies for her 24th Major, and Osaka for her fourth out of the last nine. Serena is 15-1 when advancing to this stage of the Australian Open, while Naomi is 10-0 in the quarters, semis, and finals of Majors.
In the other women’s semifinal, Jennifer Brady has achieved her second consecutive semifinal at a hard court Slam, and looks to reach her first Major final against Karolina Muchova, who is a making her Slam semifinal debut. And the first men’s semifinal also takes place on Thursday, with 17-time Major champion Novak Djokovic facing one of the most shocking Slam semifinalists in the Open Era.
Each day during this fortnight, this preview will analyze the day’s most prominent matches, and note the other intriguing matchups on the schedule. Thursday’s singles semifinals will begin at 2:00pm local time on Rod Laver Arena.
Naomi Osaka (3) vs. Serena Williams (10)
Osaka leads their head-to-head 2-1. Naomi claimed their first meeting three years ago in Miami, which was only Serena’s fourth match back after child birth. Of course they met later that year at the US Open, with Osaka prevailing in a final where Serena and the chair umpire dominated the headlines. Their most recent encounter was 18 months ago in Canada, where Serena earned her first victory over Naomi. Both women have played extremely well this fortnight, and escaped near-losses in the fourth round: Osaka against Garbine Muguruza, and Williams against Aryna Sabalenka. And they’ll both feel extra stress on this day, not only because of the caliber of their opponent, but knowing the winner will be a heavy favorite in the final. It’s rare that a player has the serving and power advantage over Serena, but that just may be the case in this matchup. Osaka’s first serve speed has averaged a bit higher than Serena’s, and she’s out-aced Serena during this tournament. As Patrick McEnroe highlighted on ESPN, it’s Serena’s consistency and improved movement that could be the difference against Osaka. Coming out of the pandemic, Serena has spoken of putting less pressure on herself to win her 24th Major, and feeling more relaxed on court. And she’s moving better now than she has since becoming a mother. I don’t think Serena will be denied on this day.
Jennifer Brady (22) vs. Karolina Muchova (25)
Unlike Williams and Osaka, these semifinalists did not receive a day of rest, and are both coming off three-set battles just yesterday where they came back from a set down. Muchova’s victory came with some criticism. She took an extended medical timeout when down a set and a break, as she was struggling in the heat. When she came back on court, the match totally turned in her favor. Thursday is forecast to be another hot day in Melbourne, which could easily impact Muchova’s play once again. Karolina also has no experience at this stage of a Major, compared to Jenn who played an excellent semifinal against Osaka less than six months ago at the US Open. Muchova is the better returner, and possesses more of an all-court game, while Brady is a great server, owns a potent forehand, and isn’t as bothered by the heat. On a hot day in Melbourne, I like Brady’s chances of reaching her first Slam final.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Aslan Karatsev (Q)
This is Djokovic’s 39th Major semifinal, and he’s accumulated 301 match wins at Slams in his career. Meanwhile, this is not only Karatsev’s first Major semi, it’s his first Major altogether. Until last summer, the 27-year-old Russian had never been ranked inside the top 150. But after the tour restart in August, he went 26-6 at all levels, and is projected to move up to 42nd in the world with this semifinal run. Could he pull off the improbable and advance to the finals in his Major debut? It’s possible, as he possesses a powerful and consistent ground game, and has thus far appeared unbothered by the magnitude of what he’s accomplished. And Djokovic is at less than 100%, as he’s been battling an abdominal injury. But upsetting the eight-time champion of this event, who is 16-0 in semis and finals on this court, is a monumental task. And one has to assume Karatsev will be feeling the weight of this moment in what is by far the biggest match of his life. Djokovic should advance rather comfortably to his ninth final in Melbourne.
Other Notable Matches on Day 11:
In the men’s doubles semifinals, Nikola Mektic and Mate Pavic (2) vs. Ivan Dodig and Filip Polasek (9). Mektic and Pavic are undefeated since teaming up this season, and they defeated Dodig and Polasek in the final of Antalya last month.
In the mixed doubles semifinals, Barbora Krejicokova and Rajeev Ram (6) vs. Storm Sanders and Marc Polmans (WC). Krejicokova and Ram are both still alive in the women’s and men’s doubles draws respectively, and both own Major titles. Australians Sanders and Polmans have never before advanced this far at a Slam.
Thursday’s full order of play is here.
