The Greatest Tennis Players On Clay In The Open Era: An Analysis - Page 3 of 4 - UBITENNIS

The Greatest Tennis Players On Clay In The Open Era: An Analysis

UbiTennis investigated the results of over 200 tournaments to ascertain who have been the most successful on the dirt in men’s tennis since 1968.

By Tommaso Villa
31 Min Read
Rafael Nadal (image via twitter.com)

METHODOLOGICAL NOTES

Two clarifications must be made before delving into the conclusions, one concerning the chosen tournaments and the other one related to the variables.

Regarding the events considered, it must be remembered that there was a brief historical moment in which the clay was gaining ground on the other surfaces, namely in the period between 1975-77, when the US Open (at the time played at Forest Hills) took place for three editions on the Har-Tru, usually called maroon clay. Given that at the time a large part of the tennis season happened in the United States, and given that many big names did not go to Paris depending on their alignment with the WCT or the ITF-sanctioned Grand Prix (especially Jimmy Connors), the tournament decided to change surface to become the premier clay court event in the world, creating a second slow swing in the Super Series, this time in the summer, which included the Canadian Open (1972 to 1975, and then again in 1978), Indianapolis, Boston (both from 1974 to 1977) and Washington D.C. (1975 to 1977). To those tournaments must be added Forest Hills, which, after getting deserted as the Slam’s headquarters in favour of Flushing Meadows, became a proto-1000 tournament from 1982 to 1985.

All of these events were considered in the analysis, which could raise a question related to the built ranking: did the players of that era get an unfairly advantage due to the larger number of events taking place on clay? Yes, they were, if we look at the first variable, that is the total score (especially for Connors, whose testosteronic egotism was fed by home crowds, a phenomenon counterbalanced by the fact that he did not play at all on the European clay at his peak), but this is where the average score comes in handy.

A brief comment on the variables considered, particularly the one related to the average points. The risk in analysing this data as discrete, in its own right, would be to attribute an excessive value to outliers (uniques victories)- how we can deny to think of the underdog par excellence Alberto Carretero, the Hamburg ’96 champion who closed his career with 23 victories and 45 defeats but that week he accomplished an incredible performance by winning the German Masters Series as a qualifier. Even two candidates for the GOAT title, Ken Rosewall and Rod Laver, see their average figures inflated (1.5 and 1.333 respectively) by the few tournaments on clay during the Open Era.

Excluding the outliers, this second variable sparks two almost antinomic observations: on the one hand, a high average allows us to view those players who, for varying periods of time, generally won when they reached the latter stages of events; on the other hand, a low score in spite of a high total tally outlines a category of “runner-up specialists”, who may have performed at very high levels for years but without winning much – what is preferrable, Ferrer’s career or Gaudio’s? Furthermore, as mentioned, the average also helps to make an estimate of which players of the mid-1970’s have collected so many points because they were capable of winning a lot, and of which ones instead (champions nevertheless) have seen their triumphs increase thanks to the temporary proliferation of the dusty turfs.

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