Australian Open Day 14 Preview: Does Dominic Thiem Has What It Takes To Topple Djokovic?

Sunday’s clash on the Melbourne Arena will be the 11th meeting between Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem. However, this time there is a grand slam title at stake for the winner.

In the chase for Major championships, a win today would pull Djokovic within three Slams of Roger Federer, and within two of Rafael Nadal. This will be Novak’s 26th Major final, with a previous record of 16-9. Djokovic has never lost in an Australian Open semifinal or final, with a 15-0 career record. And with a win today, he would retake the world No.1 ranking from Rafael Nadal.

This will be Thiem’s first Major final not played on clay. Thiem’s success came predominantly on the terra baute until the past 18 months. He reached the 2018 US Open quarterfinals, and then went on to win four hard court titles, including the Masters 1,000 event at Indian Wells. With a win today, he would reach a new career-high ranking of No.3.

Novak Djokovic (2) vs. Dominic Thiem (5)

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Djokovic narrowly leads their head-to-head 6-4, with a 3-1 edge on hard courts. But Thiem has claimed four of their last five meetings, and has a 2-1 edge at Majors. Their two most recent encounters were also their best. Thiem outlasted Djokovic at last year’s French Open in a match played over two days, and during severely windy conditions. Dominic also prevailed last November at the ATP Finals on an indoor hard court, in a match decided by a third set tiebreak.

Tiebreaks have been Thiem’s specialty of late, winning all five breakers he’s played in his last two rounds against Rafael Nadal and Sascha Zverev. But Djokovic has certainly had the easier path to this championship match. Novak only dropped one set during this fortnight, all the way back in his opening round. Thiem has played four more sets than Djokovic, and spent about six more hours on court. That’s a considerable difference, especially considering how physically and emotionally draining Dominic’s last two matches have been. And Novak received an extra day off between the semis and this final.

All of this makes Djokovic a strong favorite despite Thiem’s recent success against Novak. The 16-time Major champion will be the far fresher player, and Djokovic just doesn’t lose at this stage of the Australian Open. The best returner and defender in the game will force Dominic to hit a lot more balls, resulting in more errors from the aggressive baseliner. If Novak does win, the chase for Major titles between himself, Federer, and Nadal will be tighter than ever before.

The head-to-head (Djokovic leads 6-4)